Sunday, February 24, 2008
Quote by Alex Jacobsen
"Good traders think of ways not to lose money. Bad traders think of ways to make money."
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Conuntrywide (CFC) financials
It is an interesting time in the markets what with the major correction last week. Sectors that are clearly in trouble are financials and retailers. Oil and technology have done quite well again in 2007. At this point we start wondering what sectors would do well for 2008. Hell you wonder if you had only invested in emerging markets you wouldn't have to rack your brains for 2008. I haven't given a lot of thought to what sectors would do well but I have been thinking about individual companies.
Countrywide (CFC) comes to mind. The stock is trading at 8.42 down from around 40 it was trading at last year. This company is trading at a third of it's book value. They claim they will be profitable in their fourth quarter and for the year 2008. If the market only believed this, these guys would be at 3 times their current stock price. The mortgage mess hasn't cleared but if people think that there is hope it will clear in the next 6 months to a year, then this stock is an excellent buy. An argument put forth is "there is no reason to catch a falling knife". Just get the stock on it's way up. True - You will limit your gains but it feels more sure. Besides who is to say it won't dip further. This is where your analysis of the company's financials will come into play. The stock is hit such a low that the financials are creaming buy. Just go to Yahoo Finance and look at their revenues and profits for the past few years. Revenues for 05 - 15.6 Bil (profit 2.5 Bil), 06 - 24.9 Bil (profit 2.6 Bil) and 07 (first 3 quarters) - 18 Bil.
Company's market cap - 4.87 Bil.
Fed is making an increasing amount of money available to being auctioned off. Stock feels like a buy.
Countrywide (CFC) comes to mind. The stock is trading at 8.42 down from around 40 it was trading at last year. This company is trading at a third of it's book value. They claim they will be profitable in their fourth quarter and for the year 2008. If the market only believed this, these guys would be at 3 times their current stock price. The mortgage mess hasn't cleared but if people think that there is hope it will clear in the next 6 months to a year, then this stock is an excellent buy. An argument put forth is "there is no reason to catch a falling knife". Just get the stock on it's way up. True - You will limit your gains but it feels more sure. Besides who is to say it won't dip further. This is where your analysis of the company's financials will come into play. The stock is hit such a low that the financials are creaming buy. Just go to Yahoo Finance and look at their revenues and profits for the past few years. Revenues for 05 - 15.6 Bil (profit 2.5 Bil), 06 - 24.9 Bil (profit 2.6 Bil) and 07 (first 3 quarters) - 18 Bil.
Company's market cap - 4.87 Bil.
Fed is making an increasing amount of money available to being auctioned off. Stock feels like a buy.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Crash this week.. may be on Monday
Expecting a major correction this week. I mean a big crash. Most likely on Monday. Just a strong gut feeling.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Call volume for $35 July calls
Check out the volume on the July calls for VRTX (28.51)
$30 strike price trader 1995 calls.
$35 Strike price traded 5285 calls. - Some one bet $26,000 that VRTX price will go higher than $35 before EOD July 20th.
I checked almost all the other expiry dates for the $35 strike price and the volume is high only on July. This means it's not like someone is moving the calls to a later date. A sure way to tell is if the Open Interest in the $35 strike price goes up to about 14700 tomorrow.
$30 strike price trader 1995 calls.
$35 Strike price traded 5285 calls. - Some one bet $26,000 that VRTX price will go higher than $35 before EOD July 20th.
I checked almost all the other expiry dates for the $35 strike price and the volume is high only on July. This means it's not like someone is moving the calls to a later date. A sure way to tell is if the Open Interest in the $35 strike price goes up to about 14700 tomorrow.
Labels: Calls, option expiry, VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Thursday, July 05, 2007
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a buy
VRTX which is currently at 52 week low is a strong buy based on technicals, valuation and a probablility of the drug coming to market before 2010.
Look at the trading in the stock and the volume. It's at a great place technically. See the strong volume on up days. Today it picked up in the last 45 minutes or so on very heavy volume. There might be a rumor of a buy out but surely don't trade based on that.
Look at the trading in the stock and the volume. It's at a great place technically. See the strong volume on up days. Today it picked up in the last 45 minutes or so on very heavy volume. There might be a rumor of a buy out but surely don't trade based on that.
Labels: VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Reliant Financial Networks ticker has changed from RHWC to RFNS
Do take a look at this article. http://www.reliantfsc.com/news/Reliant%20Press%20Release%20-%20Reliant%20Now%20Fully%20Accessible%20under%20the%20Filogix%20System%20and%20an%20Increase%20in%20Mortgage%20Origination%20is%20Anticipated%20-%20May%208,%202007.pdf
" When the system was activated May 4, 2007, the Filogix system had archived 109 mortgage applications that had been submitted for Reliant's underwriting for a total of $33,170,471.77 in mortgage applications submitted. "
This is for a company that has 8 Million in Market cap. They expect to turn a profit by the 3rd quarter.
Take a look at this article. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5251 and look at the ludlow report. It paints a very rosy picture and expects an 8 cent stock to potentially go up to 12 bucks if they meet targets. Take it with a pinch of salt because everything they talk about is yet to be proven from an earnings perspective.
I think the train has started just based on the new mortgage apps it's processing and it certainly is good news for those of us trying to get in at this point.
Cheers,
Ahu
" When the system was activated May 4, 2007, the Filogix system had archived 109 mortgage applications that had been submitted for Reliant's underwriting for a total of $33,170,471.77 in mortgage applications submitted. "
This is for a company that has 8 Million in Market cap. They expect to turn a profit by the 3rd quarter.
Take a look at this article. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5251 and look at the ludlow report. It paints a very rosy picture and expects an 8 cent stock to potentially go up to 12 bucks if they meet targets. Take it with a pinch of salt because everything they talk about is yet to be proven from an earnings perspective.
I think the train has started just based on the new mortgage apps it's processing and it certainly is good news for those of us trying to get in at this point.
Cheers,
Ahu
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Blackstone (BX) Opportunity
Does anyone here remember the GOOG IPO and how the IPO price came down from $115 - $120 to $85. GOOG opened at about 100 went to 113 and then back to 98. No one can claim Blackstone to be another GOOG but the way it's trading is almost remeniscent of the Google IPO.
A few things to keep in mind: BX has given a Investment Return of 25% - 30% over the last 20 years. That is right - 20 years. It means that it has legs to ride out any so called debt crunch that the market is imposing. Money Managers in every area are aflush with funds and leveraging (leverage is required for every private equity deal) has become expensive. Markets are overly concerned with the debt leveraging that has been done.
Two things will affect BX. The tax rate issue (15% vs 35%) and they are lobbying against it. The other one would be earnings. In my humble opinion investors will be shocked by how good the earnings will be. Read their prospectus and look at their growth.
BX has fallen from their IPO price. If you buy now, you get a better deal than the Chinese goverment (they bought 3 Bil dollars worth BX). Buy BX.
A few things to keep in mind: BX has given a Investment Return of 25% - 30% over the last 20 years. That is right - 20 years. It means that it has legs to ride out any so called debt crunch that the market is imposing. Money Managers in every area are aflush with funds and leveraging (leverage is required for every private equity deal) has become expensive. Markets are overly concerned with the debt leveraging that has been done.
Two things will affect BX. The tax rate issue (15% vs 35%) and they are lobbying against it. The other one would be earnings. In my humble opinion investors will be shocked by how good the earnings will be. Read their prospectus and look at their growth.
BX has fallen from their IPO price. If you buy now, you get a better deal than the Chinese goverment (they bought 3 Bil dollars worth BX). Buy BX.
