Stock Sharks

Buy Solar stocks

2011-09-28T02:16:00.000-07:00

Solar is incredibly pressured downwards right now so if you buy, know that all these companies are down big over the last 2 months. It's a combination of excess inventory, Europe backing off incentives due to the financial turmoil and what analysts see as forecasts that need to be brought down. Governments are very interested to support their companies when solar achieves grid parity and there is a huge ramp up in production. Solar will see a hockey stick effect at some point. You want to be into the solar play ONLY if you believe in this story.

Two top solar picks in the industry.

Bought FSLR close to market lows in the low 60's. It is an excellent buy at these prices. These guys have the most predictable earnings due to the large utility projects and have some of the best margins.

TSL is the only other stocks I'd recommend from the China angle. China stocks count on Europe sales which are very low right now. Expect it to survive a harsh climate in the short term.

I expect to see a few more solar companies to go bankrupt. So buy low cost producers with enough money on their balance sheet to avoid this situation.

GRMN and MWW are fundamental shorts, NFLX is a valuation and market sizing short

2010-10-30T10:00:00.000-07:00

Also, may I add that both GRMN and MWW are fundamental shorts. Means something is wrong or outdated in their business models.

NFLX on the other hand is a valuation and market sizing short.

Monster WorldWide stock (MWW) is overpriced

2010-10-30T09:17:00.000-07:00

So Monster Worldwide, the company we all started posting our resumes to when we started our careers, is back with a bang or so it seems as per the last trading session. One look at their revenues and its a sad story. Stock peaked in 2007 and has been down ever since. Monster in it's best days made revenues of 1.35 Billion and profits of 146 million. They some how kept up the act in 2008 but made lesser profit and in 2009 they collapsed due to the poor job market and poor demand. Q3 has been good and Q4 has been another 25% growth yoy.

Recovery looks good but is expected. What I don't expect is for Monster to have the same growth rate as they once did after all their business recovers this year. Next year will continue to be challenging because of the tight competition that LinkedIn is offering. So while monster's stock collapsed, linked in more than doubled to 2.4 billion in the secondary pre-ipo markets because it is straight up a better product, a more web 2.0 experience and is a fantastic site to browse and navigate. While monster has tried to bring a web 2.0 look and feel, their website is still unfriendly to users, their products seem all over the place without any focus and they will continue to lose market share to companies such as LinkedIn. At a recent conference I went to for Payments companies, almost each recruiting head said Monster is passe and LinkedIn is the way to go.

Let's do some numbers. Say MWW recovers the business they lost in 2009, they will be at a 1.2 Billion run rate for next year given they aren't fully recovering and job market is still weak. Profitability is still off. There is no way to price the stock if you remove the 25% growth they got this year from next year's expectations. I don't understand why expenses have to be so high quite frankly so I guess that will need some more research. The short ratio is at 17% and so you can't really expect some great short covering rally.

My 2 cents is get in with a short or a put after waiting for three days. Why? Because I like to see big moves play out and you are always too early on a short after a big move where you were convinced this will head back down. If it goes below 17, wait for it to come back up. If it any time it goes back to mid 18's or 19, short it. The reward on this will be next year more so than this year. Also, MWW short can be a great part of your hedging strategy, so keep that angle in mind.

GRMN is a short on fundamentals

2010-10-25T07:55:00.000-07:00

Garmin has a fundamental flaw in it's business model. It has another company that offers a big part of it's service free of cost and is constantly working on innovating in the GPS area. It gets scarier when the company offers that service for free. Just go online and read about the services that Google is offering. There are several articles that tell you exactly how you can use this service.

As devices get more connected, everything from refrigerators to cars will be connected to the internet. Cars in the next year or two will be fully connected to the internet. Apps on these cars will be everything from navigation to gas station finders to making payments from your car for the pizza you are about to pick up. Marine and aviation can easily be covered as well but will be a little delayed. An "ipod runner" or something can easily come with a gps system to track your workout specifics. Garmin has everything to lose here.

GRMN will have a tough time to stay ahead of that curve. Short GRMN on any big pop. It's market cap is 6.25 billion that will someday go into everyone else's pocket.

Short NFLX

2010-10-24T09:26:00.001-07:00

I think Reed Hastings did a fabulous job building this company and I recommended this stock on this blog several years back when it was at 10.

A hedgie friend once said, never short a stock because of how expensive it is. Agreed and lesson learned :) That said, I do think that if you combine how pricey a stock is with market sizing you have a good short opportunity.

How many households in the US:115 Million
How many households in the US have televisions?112.8 million
Given Netflix's current price $172, what percentage of households should have Netflix to justify current price: 50 million: THIS IS CRAZY. This is where market sizing comes up. To think Netflix will be in every 2nd household is nuts in my opinion. Can they eventually improve margins by saving postage? Yes but content deals are expensive. They would be really underestimating their competition.

For streaming service NFLX can quickly rollout worldwide: Marketing efforts will need to expand. Plus there is initial resistance and numbers will be slow.
They are expected to strike great deals and win against content creators, Apple, Amazon and every cable service out there.

31.6% shares are short

Quote by Alex Jacobsen

2008-02-24T08:17:00.001-08:00

"Good traders think of ways not to lose money. Bad traders think of ways to make money."

Conuntrywide (CFC) financials

2008-01-06T12:07:00.000-08:00

It is an interesting time in the markets what with the major correction last week. Sectors that are clearly in trouble are financials and retailers. Oil and technology have done quite well again in 2007. At this point we start wondering what sectors would do well for 2008. Hell you wonder if you had only invested in emerging markets you wouldn't have to rack your brains for 2008. I haven't given a lot of thought to what sectors would do well but I have been thinking about individual companies.

Countrywide (CFC) comes to mind. The stock is trading at 8.42 down from around 40 it was trading at last year. This company is trading at a third of it's book value. They claim they will be profitable in their fourth quarter and for the year 2008. If the market only believed this, these guys would be at 3 times their current stock price. The mortgage mess hasn't cleared but if people think that there is hope it will clear in the next 6 months to a year, then this stock is an excellent buy. An argument put forth is "there is no reason to catch a falling knife". Just get the stock on it's way up. True - You will limit your gains but it feels more sure. Besides who is to say it won't dip further. This is where your analysis of the company's financials will come into play. The stock is hit such a low that the financials are creaming buy. Just go to Yahoo Finance and look at their revenues and profits for the past few years. Revenues for 05 - 15.6 Bil (profit 2.5 Bil), 06 - 24.9 Bil (profit 2.6 Bil) and 07 (first 3 quarters) - 18 Bil.

Company's market cap - 4.87 Bil.

Fed is making an increasing amount of money available to being auctioned off. Stock feels like a buy.

Crash this week.. may be on Monday

2007-10-21T11:13:00.000-07:00

Expecting a major correction this week. I mean a big crash. Most likely on Monday. Just a strong gut feeling.

Call volume for $35 July calls

2007-07-10T15:29:00.000-07:00

Check out the volume on the July calls for VRTX (28.51)

$30 strike price trader 1995 calls.
$35 Strike price traded 5285 calls. - Some one bet $26,000 that VRTX price will go higher than $35 before EOD July 20th.

I checked almost all the other expiry dates for the $35 strike price and the volume is high only on July. This means it's not like someone is moving the calls to a later date. A sure way to tell is if the Open Interest in the $35 strike price goes up to about 14700 tomorrow.

VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a buy

2007-07-05T13:37:00.000-07:00

VRTX which is currently at 52 week low is a strong buy based on technicals, valuation and a probablility of the drug coming to market before 2010.

Look at the trading in the stock and the volume. It's at a great place technically. See the strong volume on up days. Today it picked up in the last 45 minutes or so on very heavy volume. There might be a rumor of a buy out but surely don't trade based on that.

Reliant Financial Networks ticker has changed from RHWC to RFNS

2007-07-04T10:11:00.000-07:00

Do take a look at this article. http://www.reliantfsc.com/news/Reliant%20Press%20Release%20-%20Reliant%20Now%20Fully%20Accessible%20under%20the%20Filogix%20System%20and%20an%20Increase%20in%20Mortgage%20Origination%20is%20Anticipated%20-%20May%208,%202007.pdf

" When the system was activated May 4, 2007, the Filogix system had archived 109 mortgage applications that had been submitted for Reliant's underwriting for a total of $33,170,471.77 in mortgage applications submitted. "

This is for a company that has 8 Million in Market cap. They expect to turn a profit by the 3rd quarter.

Take a look at this article. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5251 and look at the ludlow report. It paints a very rosy picture and expects an 8 cent stock to potentially go up to 12 bucks if they meet targets. Take it with a pinch of salt because everything they talk about is yet to be proven from an earnings perspective.

I think the train has started just based on the new mortgage apps it's processing and it certainly is good news for those of us trying to get in at this point.

Cheers,
Ahu

Blackstone (BX) Opportunity

2007-07-01T09:09:00.000-07:00

Does anyone here remember the GOOG IPO and how the IPO price came down from $115 - $120 to $85. GOOG opened at about 100 went to 113 and then back to 98. No one can claim Blackstone to be another GOOG but the way it's trading is almost remeniscent of the Google IPO.

A few things to keep in mind: BX has given a Investment Return of 25% - 30% over the last 20 years. That is right - 20 years. It means that it has legs to ride out any so called debt crunch that the market is imposing. Money Managers in every area are aflush with funds and leveraging (leverage is required for every private equity deal) has become expensive. Markets are overly concerned with the debt leveraging that has been done.

Two things will affect BX. The tax rate issue (15% vs 35%) and they are lobbying against it. The other one would be earnings. In my humble opinion investors will be shocked by how good the earnings will be. Read their prospectus and look at their growth.

BX has fallen from their IPO price. If you buy now, you get a better deal than the Chinese goverment (they bought 3 Bil dollars worth BX). Buy BX.

Buy GILD

2007-06-19T10:03:00.000-07:00

GILD - Gilead Sciences.

Financial Amalysis: The company had 1.32 Bil, 2.03 Bil and 3.03 Bil in revenues for 2004 - 2006. Current estimates for the year are extremely low (3.95 to 4 Bil). The company has exceeded revenues quarter over quarter every time. current estimates are for no Quarter over Quarter growth. They have beaten estimates conprehensively and for a 40% growth rate, their Future P/E is only 23 (given current low estimates). The technicals for the stock are great and they are hovering around 50 day EMA. Look for the stock to climb over 81.5 for a continued run and over 84.47 for a real unabated run. If stock rises into earnings then sell options prior to earnings (high premium) and sell stock after earnings. Option activity today is definitely favorable and in anticipation of a positive earnings surprise.

The stock has an excellent pipeline of drugs and just recently got approved for ambrisentan for treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension, to be marketed as Letairis. This one feels like it's going to a 100.

Cheers,
Ahu

Penny stocks anyone?

2007-06-03T20:57:00.000-07:00

I've been researching RHWC for the last few days and this one is a strong speculative buy.

This is one of those stocks that can multiply your return. I am quite tired today and so I won't be writing a long piece on this. It just got into the most feared business of sub-prime mortgage lending but in Canada. When the market expects the worst in a business area is when you find great deals.

This is a penny stock at 11 cents. Returns will multiply quickly if they can pull it of. Canadian real estate has done very well over the last year and expected to continue to do well. Big Canadian banks are washing their hands of the sub-prime business after watching the US debacle. Sub-prime is a valid business model and this is the perfect way to benefit from it. Look at how you can avoid high risks by going through this analyst report.

http://www.beaconequityresearch.com/report/RHWC.pdf

The company is projecting a net income of 15 million for 2007 and expects profits in the third quarter. Hmm.. I think it's a difficult ask. Having said that, their Market cap is 9.6 mil. Surely, if it makes even a fourth of their expected income, the stock is way underpriced.

And you thought I'd never recommend a penny stock :)

2 Buys and Equal weight rating in 2 days

2007-05-16T14:23:00.000-07:00

Yesterday
Lehman started VRAZ with a Equal Weight rating.
Jefferies started VRAZ with a Buy and a price target of 8.

Today
Credit Suisse started them with a Buy and a price target of 10.

I am not sure who is selling at these levels. Almost feel like ECI or someone big is selling out. I can't imagine this being shorted at this level.

Long time people! How about a new stock tip :)

2007-05-08T07:41:00.000-07:00

It's been ages since I posted anything last. Work got a little busy!!

Here's a new company to think of - Veraz Networks (VRAZ) - Strong Buy

Disclaimer: I own this stock.

The company just went IPO around April 10 or so. What do they do - in their own words.
"Veraz Networks, Inc. provides Internet protocol (IP), softswitches, media gateways, and digital compression products to wireline, wireless, and broadband service providers worldwide."

In short, they provide ways and means Veraz products allow service providers to quickly and efficiently migrate from traditional voice networks to all-IP without making expensive hardware purchases.

The company reported earning yesterday. Keep in mind Veraz was in a different business a few years back. They sold Digital Circuit Multiplication Equipment to Telecom providers. They had hundreds of customers. Today they are selling their IP softswitches to the same Telecom providers.

Let's break down the numbers -
Revenues = 27.45 Mil

17.65 Mil IP softswitches revenues
5.134 Mil DCME products
4.671 Mil Services

Okay - IP softswitches revenues and the Services revenue are what matter and they both grew year over year by 98% and 84% respectively. DCME product revenues are going to keep reducing as stated in their prospectus. They are obviously executing well on the IP softswitches sales to the telecom providers.

Last year they made about 99.6 Mil in revenue and lost 15 mil and that's about 4 mil a quarter. This quarter they lost only 1.2 Mil. With revenues growing a 100% in their core area this is peanuts and easily controllable. Revs for the year are expected to be 120 Mil. Again don't get fooled by the growth year over year which is only 20%. Keep in mind that their core product's revenues are growing at a 100% and that has been the case for the last 2 years (look at the IPO prospectus). Even if the growth this year is only 20% as DCME revenues ultimately become really small, next year will be at a 100% if you just look at the revenue trend and the fact that they have sold to only to about 60 IP customers.

Again, let's break down the numbers. Stock is at 6.75, market cap 270 mil. 72 mil in cash and so we are saying that the company is valued at about 200 mil for 120 mil in revenues that will grow at about 100% in 2008. I hope someone understands the absurdity of this situation. Compare this with other companies that just went public and are growing

The market makers scam: Hmm the interesting stuff. This stock's volume is extremely low even for it's low market cap. You have a daily volume of about 41000 stocks and if you follow this stock closely there is absolutely no liquidity on this stock. The stock is showing no interest because retail investors don't understand the company or if they do, they don't have any conviction in their understanding. If I am a market maker, all I have to do is sell about 40,000 stock on the day after earnings and make sure there is no momentum from traders in the stock. Why? Because the stock went up 6% yesterday on a volume of 100,000. Imagine what it could do if momentum trader's volume get's added to it. The price will go up a buck. Traders catch a stock that is moving up after earnings. They don't try to understand an earnings statement. So a market maker can sell say 40,000 stocks today and keep the price low and the momentum traders out. This in turn gives them a chance to accumulate at a low cost basis over the next 3 months until earnings are announced. They keep the cost price low and retail investors will sell thinking this stock isn't going anywhere. No wonder it's low today.

I feel as confident about this company's prospects as I've felt about my call on NFLX at 10 bucks and just like UAUA at 30.

Sorry: Reversing AMD position

2006-12-01T10:15:00.000-08:00

Sorry folks. I have to reverse my position on AMD. There is incessant selling on the stock and seems like their new products are not superstars and are getting poor reviews in comparison with Intel. This is still a good buy long term but short term has some serious problems.

Goldman added AMD to it's least favorite list.
http://chip.seekingalpha.com/article/21595

Got to back out for now.

Might be a short trap

2006-11-27T10:34:00.000-08:00

Be careful about shorting due to today's market drop. It might very well be a head fake. The economy IS doing well and market reversal might very well take place only next year. If shorts load up today, they really might get squeezed. If the market stays at the lower levels reached today for the next 3 days then we can expect a down trend.

AMD is up slightly on high volume. This one is going up IMHO.

http://stocksharks.blogspot.com

Nice article on market share

2006-11-23T11:07:00.000-08:00

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-6130795.html?tag=nl

Great article covering market share.

Remember the one rule of the market. The underdog always deserves a high P/E when it has great products and has tons of marketshare to capture. Remember JNPR vs CSCO. JNPR commanded that P/E in the hey days but then Cisco came in with better products JNPRs price declined. AMD is in a sweet spot right now. Just checkout the gains in the server market.

Time to short Oil and Gas companies?

2006-11-23T10:26:00.000-08:00

I never wanted to invest in Oil and Gas companies. Not that I am trying to be a prude but it is a prospect I haven't thought over. I did of course always think about shorting these companies :) Besides shorting is not investing.

This is not the best time to short these companies and may be the best time was some 3 months back. Having said that there are still a few companies where valuation hasn't caught up with the drop in oil price and the drop in growth.

One such company is UPL. It's a oil and gas exploration company with revenues doubling every year from 2003 to 2005. That's where it ends. 2006 growth is expected to be about 20%. Company does oil exploration in Wyoming and China. China growth is about 10%. If you look at the stock price it has gone from $3 to $50 in the last 5 years and is well off it's highs or $70. The stock has a 52 week range of $41 and $70. The P/E is very high for comparable companies at 32.78. The P/S )Price to Sale) is ridiculously high at 12.67 (almost 4 to 8 times higher than the comparable companies). If oil stays at these levels this stock might head down for a while. I see us revisiting 40 some time in the next 2 quarters. Note: The market cap is 7.5 Billion and sales are about 500 Mil in 2005 and about 600 Mil in 2006. Their profit margins are excellent. That is the one catch. If they spend more money in oil exploration that doesn't allow them the fantastic margins they have enjoyed then that is another reason this stock might head down. UPL has the best cost ratio per barrel of oil. That in my opinion will not improve any further.

Countries like Venezuela and Iran will not follow the OPEC cut downs and will produce and sell oil for under the oil price. The cost of a barrel of oil is about $2. Developing countries would not forego the margins they get with oil by cutting down on their production.

Oil might stay at these levels for a while and Oil companies need to factor in the lack of growth.

Could AMD be a good buy at these levels?

2006-11-23T01:15:00.000-08:00

AMD has done exceptionally for the last couple of years. The stock seemed to have peaked in March of this year. Not unexpected as revenue for this year will be lower than last (due to Spansion spinoff) and Intel had the worst fourth quarter in 2005. Intel is kind of back and AMD will need to keep up this level of innovation and ramp production at the same time. Last year AMD gained at Intel's expense, got great margins and most importantly broke into Dell.

If you remember buying a laptop / desktop some 4 /5 years back, you would not consider buying an AMD. There has been a major shift in consumers where people realize that AMDs have great CPUs.

Intel now has low power consumption chips. Intel is also ahead in the race for lower nanometer production and has come up with the first quad core (2 dual cores together). Intel seems to be competing better but the biggest advantage that AMD has in my opinion is the traction they already have on Opteron and the fact that consumers are now open to buying AMDs a lot more that they were a few years back.

Vista will drive PC sales. AMD's market cap is lower than Nvidia. ATI acquisition was a smart move in many ways. They used debt since their stock had already taken a hit and that was a smart move.

I think the stock is very down (21.77) and is currently trying to fight through resisitance levels. Short term downward risk is about a dollar but upward move can easily be about 3 to 4 bucks in the next 15 days or so. AMD has set themselves low fourth quarter targets. I think they have an excellent chance of beating these numbers. I think they will be an excellent competitior for Intel over the next few years.

http://stocksharks.blogspot.com

Nice link to the asian markets

2006-11-19T21:15:00.000-08:00

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

All the stock charts in Asia.

Nov 15th Market action recap

2006-11-15T15:35:00.000-08:00

I think I will try to do a daily recap henceforth.

Market really seems to be over bought at this point. The market might take a breather tomorrow as some earnings have been disappointing after hours. Also, tomorrow the CPI numbers come out. Fed meeting minutes that came out today had a clear message. If the Fed smells inflation, they will raise the interest rates. Raising Interest rates will surely be a killer. Market has been going up since PPI inflation data was well under control. On the other hand if the CPI data tomorrow gives us a shock (unlikely) then the market is definitely heading down.

Stocks are moving up purely on momentum. Take a look at the RIMM's move - Research in Motion (Blackberry maker). Market cap is 23.6 Billion. Compare that with Motorola 53 Billion. So you have a company with 1/10th the sales of Motorola at just half Motorola's market cap. Expectations are high due to the BlackBerry Pearl for personal use. Pearl has some bad reviews on Amazon and does not have the QWERT keyboard. Add to that competition from the likes of Motorola that just bought GOOD Technologies (Mobile email space). This sucker is going down. RIMM is a short in my opinion.

Another potential short is CROX (crocs shoes).

Having said that both RIMM and CROX seem to have a lot of momentum. Look for a confirmed reversal if you want to play it safe. If RIMM goes higher then look to buy Puts for Jan although they are expensive.

Salesforce.com (CRM) reported after hours. One time expenses ate all their profits. The company is valued at 4.76 Billion and sales are increasing about 10% quarter over quarter. CRM is another short IMHO.

Guess what's back in play. OVTI - excellent value for money. Earnings on Nov 30th and stock has begun to move. If you decide to dip in then please sell before Nov 30th earnings. Last earnings had lower margins. The company is excellent value for money. 980 mil market cal, 380 mil in cash, 100 mil cash flow every year and 30 - 40% growth. It's a dream buyout.

Buy March 07 puts for CROX

2006-11-07T10:15:00.000-08:00

This stock is very over bought. Market cap is huge for it's revenues. Worse still, company guidance for the next quarter actually shows negative growth which is unbelievable considering the company grew almost 100% quarter over quarter.

You can't short the stock as it's not available to short. What you are seeing is a typical short covering rally. Take a long term short stance and I think this is a winner.

Digital Angel rescheduling 3rd quarter earnings call

2006-11-04T12:08:00.000-08:00

Digital Angel is rescheduling the earnings conference call. Key words to note here are "Strategic Alternatives".

Digital Angel Corp. (DOC.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it is rescheduling the release of its third-quarter results to update shareholders on strategic alternatives for the company.

If you revisit their recent history they just got a patent on glucose sensing microchip on diabetes. Before that stocks was at a 52 Week low. My feeling is that they are announcing a strategic alliance or may be a buy out. They might have the patent but they can't do it alone cause they don't have the money for it. They are small in market cap and their revenues aren't bad for a company in this industry group at this point in the company's evolution.

I could be completely wrong and "Strategic Alternatives" may mean the company is figuring out how to get more funding also. They have enough cash though so I doubt that but you get the point. Could be anything but most likely it's good news.

Cheers,
Ahu

Could this be the perfect trade?

2006-11-02T11:18:00.000-08:00

CVS bought CMX today. CVS will give CMX 1.67 shares of CVS in an all stock transaction today.

CVS is at 28.73 and CMX is at 47.3. Simple calculation would suggest that CMX buy out would be at 28.73 * 1.67 = 47.98. We therefore see a CMX cheaper by 68 cents at current prices.

Is this normal? Yes - You usually see a 30 to 40 cent discrepancy before the buyout actually takes place and the gap gets lesser as the buyout date comes closer. There is a huge difference here though.

1. CMX is at a 52 week low although earnings have been great (Walmart competition is the biggest reason).
2. CVS is also quite low but they have had good earnings as well.
3. "Could this be the perfect trade": Forget points 2 and 3 and think about this trade. Short CVS and buy CMX. This way if CVS goes down you make money on the short and lose money on the long on CMX. If CVS moves up then you have the opposite reaction. Either way you still stand to make your 68 cents.

If you were to chose to go in any one direction, choose CMX buy. Reasons: Deal might not go thorugh as some analysts think the offer is quite low. This might require CVS make a higher offer. The important thing to note here is that as per points 1 and 2, if the deal is canceled some how both stocks will still go up over the long run considering the levels they are at from a 52 week chart and earnings perspective.

Point 3 is the safe trade. Buying only CMX is the riskier one but could give greater yields. Let me know what you guys think.

CVS and CMX merger

2006-11-02T06:31:00.000-08:00

CVS is buying CMX for 1.67 shares per CMX shares. If this deal goes through you have a company that can leverage some 400 Mil a year in cost savings. 2006 revenues will be upwards of 75 Billion USD. Big step in the Pharma industry. Check out all the news articles on it today. Both stocks were sold off yesterday. I would say the stocks are a buy and certainly CMX today since they might come back with a sweeter offer as currently there is no premium.

Digital Angel Corporation awarded patent for breakthrough Glucose-Sensing RFID chip

2006-10-25T05:40:00.000-07:00

Digital Angel Corporation awarded patent for breakthrough Glucose-Sensing RFID chip

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061025/20061025005372.html?.v=1

This news is big. Sure it will take them a while to sell it commercially but it is definitely a huge revenue driver. This company's market cap is 113 Mil and stock is at 2.51. It has it's losses in control and it's poised for a big move when this technology gets commercialized.

List of ETFs

2006-10-22T21:32:00.000-07:00

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Computer_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20360&tid=725381&mid=725381&tof=13&frt=2

Cheers,
Ahu
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com

Make money in the last hour on the options expiry day

2006-10-21T11:20:00.000-07:00

Ever thought you can make money in the last hour of options expiry. Keep an eye open for the following prerequisites while making this trade.

1. It needs to be the day of options expiry and the open interest should be really high.
2. The volume on the options (options that are in the money) should be low. Approximately less than 30% of open interest.
3. The stock should have moved higher / lower in recent sessions (your trade depends on whether you bought calls or puts). Therefore a few people might have made money on the move up/down and are holding to see at session highs/lows since options make a lot of money even on timing the entry and exit points.

Most brokerage houses automatically exercise or sell options that are "in the money" by 3 PM EST. Options traders know this and so if the stock has maintained a flat / slightly bullish line, they start exercising options a little before that. e.g. If a lot of call are open, traders start exercising the calls (buy stock). This buying spurs up the stock price.

To see a recent example of this, check out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=1d and look at the move in the last 1 hour. Also, see the options page for October expiry and see the open interest for Calls with $75 Strike price.

I've seen a move like this last year in OVTI for the last day of options expiry for the month of November.

Cheers,
Ahu
http://Stocksharks.blogspot.com

United Airlines (UAUA) is way undervalued

2006-10-15T10:17:00.000-07:00

Wonder if Airline stocks are worth investing into? All airlines have gone through bankruptcy in the last few years except Southwest and American Airlines.

United Airlines IMHO is a diamond in the rough. We only have data from a couple of quarters after bankruptcy and that suggests that the airline is extremely undervalued. The balance sheet has debt but has plenty of Cash as well. Airlines, due to the nature of their business can carry debt against their huge property and infrastructure.

UAUA has a market cap of 3.23 Bil. They might hit 18 - 20 Bil in revenues in 2007 and are in a good position to increase margins just a little so they can earn more income. Taking estimated $6 a share earnings for next year UAUA is trading at a future P/E of 5.

There is another factor that might benefit margins in the short term. Gasoline prices have dropped 16% in September and if you believe in the conspiracy theory that Republicans are ensureing the pricing stays low until the elections get over, then these prices might stay for a while.

Even without this bonus the economy is really improving and Airlines might be have emerging from a very risky environment over the last few years where people can now understand the risks of airlines, accept them and yet invest in them.

All UAUA has to do is keep up their current earnings performance and we should see a 50% appreciation in the stock price in 6 months.

Cheers,
Ahu
Stock Sharks

YHOO downgrade timing questionable

2006-10-13T13:48:00.000-07:00

Yahoo was downgraded this morning. The downgrade came in after Yahoo had already hit rock bottom over the past few days. This truly was a shameless ploy. Yahoo is being accumulated in my humble opinion. The day started with YHOO already opening low. You can drive a stock lower on low volume by pre-market trading. Stop losses might have triggerd for the brief dip and there on there is a consistent strong buying all the way into the close.

We keep talking about how individual investors are disadvantaged in the stock market. Situations like these are examples of how individual investors will benefit from maniplation as long as you understand the play.

I feel YHOO will go higher from now until earnings.

Switch to a Mac - Excellent article

2006-10-10T15:55:00.000-07:00

http://switchtoamac.com/site/preview-apples-q4-2006-financial-earnings-mac-sales-increase.html

Excellent article. Check it out!

Apple about to announce wireless video i-Pod?

2006-10-10T14:44:00.000-07:00

Apple about to announce wireless video i-Pod?

http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/10/apple-about-to-announce-wireless-video-ipod

Cheers,
Ahu

Financial Analysis on AAPL and some growth drivers

2006-10-09T15:16:00.000-07:00

Let's do the numbers on Apple:

Note: I have made the assumption AAPL will meet the September quarter expectations next week.

Year ending Revenues Revenue YOY% growth Earnings
Sep-03---------6.21B-------------------------------69M
Sep-04---------8.28B--------33.33%----------------276M
Sep-05--------13.94B--------40.60%---------------1335M
Sep-06--------19.08B--------36.87%---------------1897M

A company growing revenues at about 37% and earnings at an even higher pace should be trading at a much higher multiple than a future P/E of 28.16. The company has had real growth and the best is yet to come in the next 6 months.

The major revenue driver for Apple has been iPod over the years. iPod's are again selling like hot cakes and will continue to do so in the holiday season. MacBooks have a small percentage of the market share and sales have picked up only in the last quarter. Apple's advertising campaign has been very successful. The stock price doesn't fully reflect the price that ought to be considering the traction for Macs. Macs are number one sellers on almost every web list you can get your hands on.

Add to this iTV. Walmart and Target that together account for 55% of DVD sales for studios are up in arms with the studios about Apple getting new movies for cheaper. The studios realize that DVD sales growth has stagnated. Downloading is the new mode of delivery. It's cheaper for studios as manufacturing and packaging costs are not present and you don't need to go to a store to buy a movie. The goal is to download a movie / TV show on your iTV and view it anywhere. Could be your TV, your video iPod just anywhere. Bottom line the growth that the company will have with the iTv sales are not factored in yet.

Just iTV and a bigger chunk of PC / Laptop market warrants another $30 - $40 price increase.

We have not even considered the new products that are in the pipeline and if you know Steve, you know he will surely have something up their sleeve in the next couple of months.

AAPL: Strong buy

Apple products are best sellers

2006-10-04T07:17:00.000-07:00

The top four best sellers and 10 out of the top 12 best sellers on Amazon are Apple products.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/pc/all/ref=sv_pc_1/104-8059396-1562314?%5Fencoding=UTF8

AAPL is a great buy

2006-10-03T17:42:00.000-07:00

Dear readers,

There is a lot of talk about how AAPL is overpriced, the stock has gone up too much and that Apple will barely meet expectations.

Apple is on the verge of changing the face of the entertainment business. Forget that for the time being. Apple is only trying to be a hardware company. They don't care of they don't make money on movies, music or any software. They only want to sell their hardware (iPod, iMac, iTv etc). They are coming out with great products and Steve is timing the launch such that the interest in the Apple brand never dies.

In fact, if they don't launch anything else this year, it is not because they can't but because they don't want to. They will launch that same exciting product early next year.

The current stock price has not even covered the rise warranted by the adoption of the MacBooks. Apple has a very low market share. Imagine the revenue generated if the market share goes up by only a few percentage points. iMacs can run either Windows or the Mac platform. Everybody is asking about it. It is topping Amazon's sale numbers.

AAPL market cap is 63.2 Bil. Their revenue has gone up from 8.27B to 13.93B to about 19B (September year end) if they only come in as per expectations. December quarter is expected to be a blockbuster.

I am not even considering the impact of iPhone, movies or any of theose potential revenue drivers.

Apple is going to do fantastic and the consumers will keep craving Apple products.

Excellent Call buying opportunity

2006-09-27T09:33:00.000-07:00

While just going through the list of stocks that I follow, I have stumbled upon this really strange options situation.

Accenture reports tomorrow. The October and Novemeber $25 calls are trading at no premium. Stock is at 29.3 and the October and November call is trading at 4.3 to 4.4. So then the question is if the earnings are expected to be really bad and so the calls are suddenly trading cheap. The Options Interest is really low and so no that can't be the case. I mean if the earnings are bad then so be it but it's not the expectation currently going by the open interest on the calls or puts.

The biggest connundrum is how can the same strike price option for 2 consecutive months trade at the same level.

Got to buy it at this point!!!!

Icahn got 33% seats on Imclone board

2006-09-20T10:58:00.000-07:00

Interesting news on IMCL. Icahn might have something in the pipeline for all you know. Note: He hasn't always made smart decisions. Remember BBI where he bought in at 8 - 9 bucks and tried to change the company.

Anyway Imclone is a good company with really bad leadership. They made some really poor investments (check out their balance sheet). Icahn hopefully will change all that.

Stock Sharks

2006-09-10T22:07:00.000-07:00

Stock Sharks

Macs run Vista better than a high end Sony Vaio?

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Computer_Hardware/threadview?m=tm&bn=60&tid=929351&mid=929351&tof=143&frt=2

http://www.computerworld.com/action/arti...d=9003111&pageNumber=1
Amazon top sellers (from another Yahoo post)

Here are some of my observations. What is AAPL selling this quarter. I always check Amazon.com top 10 list in different categories.Lets see, as of 7/7/6, 9PM.

1. http://tinyurl.com/m27vt...
Top sellers, Top 10 list Laptops & Notebooks. #1, Macbook, #2 Macbook, #5Macbook, #8 iMac 20", #10 MacPro, #16 Macbook Pro, #18 Macbook Pro, #20 iMac, #26 Mac Mini, #34 iMac, #35 Mac Mini, #43 Mac Book Pro, So, Apple has 5 products in top 10 positions. Total 8 Products in top 25.This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday. Definately will Split the stock in October. And then you all know what happens with the January Numbers and MacWorld announcements.

2. Go to aaple.com, go to store, MacBooks are backorder 5-7 days. Translation==HIGH DEMAND

3. Software, Top Sellers. #1 Apple .Mac 4.0, #18 Apple iLife 06

4. Electornics, Top Sellers. #2 30GB iPod, #6 60 GB iPod, #9 4GB iPod Nano, #12 1GB Nano, #18 30GB iPod, #21 2GB iPod Nano. This is only Top 25. 6 items belong to Aaple. This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday.

Stock Sharks

2006-09-10T21:58:00.000-07:00

Stock Sharks

http://maryjaneskibum.com/2006/09/07/apple-ipod-camer a-phone-coming-out-and-a-cell-phone

AAPL might use a 2 MP image sensor from Omnivision in their iPhone. Seems like very few phones today use 2MP.

CKCM bought out for $22.5

2006-09-10T11:14:00.000-07:00

I think they sold out cheap but hey it's a profit for most of us buying it under 17 bucks.

Considering investing in Solar Power companies?

2006-07-30T11:31:00.000-07:00

Considering investing in Solar Power companies? Here's an attempt to break down the market and to figure out what to look for.

Photo Voltaic cells are used to generate solar energy. While PV cells aren't exactly following Moore's law, their prices are going down and capacity (conversion efficiency) is increasing. There is but one source of energy and so the improvement is sought in the conversion efficiency of the PV chips to make it competitive with traditional forms of energy.

Some important factors to consider are....

1. Low cost of Production. e.g STP -Suntech Power. Manufacturing based in China.
2. High conversion Efficiency. Every company is striving for this. Sunpower (SPWR) at 22% is way ahead in the competition. Others are in the 15 - 18% frame. If SPWR has excellent patents then they have an excellent advantage long term.
3. A major challenge for this group is the polysilicon capacity. Polysilicon is used to manufacture PV Cells. Therefore its important for PV manufacturers to strike deals for a consistent polysilicon supply. Due to a major increase in demand over the last 2 years the price of polysilicon has gone up nearly 30% (contract pricing). MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) produces most of its own silicon feedstock and has recently inked a 10 year deal with STP.
4. Therefore company size and financial health is very important for ensuring supplies through contracts.
5. A company's base country will play a role as well. Germany and Japan offer the best incentives today to use Solar energy. STP has an excellent advantage as they have good visibility with Chinese government officials (see their website which talks about some visits and statements).
6. Most companies in this sector have triple digit revenue gains and so stock pricing is tough to decide. STP is the most profitable. They also have the lowest institutional investment (partly because its an ADR) and that leaves immense scope for a stock price increase.

Note: MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) is well positioned to take advantage of the polysilicon shortage. They produce most of their own Silicon feedstock.

Regards,
Ahu

Excellent article on the Solar Power Business

2006-07-30T09:52:00.000-07:00

http://www.carmanah.com/content/investors/showmediaclipping.aspx?id=050919

Long time!

2006-07-30T09:44:00.000-07:00

Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:04 am

(I am posting this email a few days after I posted it on the yahoo group.)

Hope you are all doing well. I had taken a sabbatical after taking up the new job last October but the market has become enticing enough to start considering long term investing in bits and pieces.

Most Tech stocks are doing quite poorly and many of them are down dramatically from the beginning of the year (mostly well deserved). Seems like Oil and Mining stocks are doing the best all year. I do think thistrend will change in time.

I feel a lot of tech stocks currently make good long term buys. If you wouldlike to buy into a upscale restaurant chain that is growing at a steady pace, buy into RUTH. It is a Steak House and has been around since the 60's, but gone public only in the last year or two. It is below IPO price currently and I might be rusty but I don't see any factors standing out except a poor over all market. Yup, don't think Americans will stop eating steak any time soon :)

Anyway, at 18 bucks, I think it is a deal. Earnings are tomorrow and so you can choose to buy after earnings too.

I think the market can still fall a little more but right now might be a good time to buy stocks that you plan to hold for a while.

CKCM earnings are on Thursday and I do think it is a good buy long term at16.6. OVTI might see a traditional dip before earnings which will be in early Sept. Texas Instruments (mentioned strong chips sale for cell phones) and Cell phone companies have had strong earnings which bodes well for OVTI. Image capturing chips according to some analyst might be becoming acommodity but I feel OVTI has planned its diversification quite well, have good revenue growth and have a cheap P/E.

I will not be covering Oil / Mining stocks in general but the gains there have been dramatic for those who are interested.

Good luck!
Ahu

Blockbuster BBI

2006-04-02T14:04:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:40 pm Subject: Blockbuster (BBI): Might be way undervalued

Carl Icahn bought BBI in the 8 to 10 dollars range. Carl Icahn is a
billionaire investor who buys companies when he thinks that he can run them
operationally and likes to break down companies after buying into them or as
in this case, try to replace management that pays themselves too well after
doing a shoddy job of running the company.

Some fundamental analysis on the stock:
1. Revenues: around 6 Bil / year; Market cap: 719 Mil. This should
definitely catch anyone's attention. Of course this means that they are a
loss making company which is why this discrepancy.
2. Total liabilities = 2.56 Bil and Total Assets = 3.03 Bil (they own their
stores). The difference in this has gone down since the previous quarter but
you still have about a +$500 Mil difference. In the meantime the stock is
down by about a third in value.
3. Their online rentals have not picked up like Netflix. Round 1 goes to
Netflix. BBI took the beating of it's life to get to $3.75 from the 10 to 11
dollars range. Having said that, BBI has more distribution centers than
Netflix and if they can do a half decent job of trying to run the business,
they would be much more successful with Blockbuster Online.

What is Icahn doing to turnaround business.
1. Classify stores as profitable or loss making and close down the loss
making stores. BBI has thousands of stores in the country.
2. Use the extra time he had over the last 18 months to develop a good
Inventory management system and make BBI online successful.
Five years from now DVD's will probably be replaced. Don't be so sure though
cause studios are making a lot of money via DVDs and unless they find an
alternate source of the same revenue, they are surely creating DVDs.
One very interesting observation is that there are 81000 $5 calls open for
April. How big is the anomaly? Get this. Every call / put for all the months
has an open interest in between 500 - 2000. This means some one is betting
8.1 million shares on the fact that BBI will cross $5 by April options
expiry. The option is at 10 cents and a pretty good bet in my opinion.

The recovery might take longer than one would like. So you could still see a
March 9 earnings report that is not good enough but hey this one is quite
undervalued

Cheers,
Ahu

PLAY

2006-04-02T14:03:00.000-07:00

From: "harish rao" Date: Wed Feb 1, 2006 7:00 am Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] CKCM, AMD, GOOG, OVTI

Ahu,
I would check out Play(Portal Player). They are the primary provider of soc chips for Mp3 players, the market for which is growing at 40%. They are providing chips to sndk, aapl and have a design win with philips.
Also, there are is a talk that they are coming with up PMD devices and a tie up with microsoft. They have 6+$ cash for every share, no debt and a very low forward looking PE.

Thanks
Harish

AMD might be the next AAPL

2006-04-02T14:02:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:21 am Subject: CKCM, AMD, GOOG, OVTI

AMD: might be the next AAPL or SNDK in terms of a run up. it is not seasonal
for this company. If Intel can't do anything spectacular, and these guys can
perform over the next 12 months, Intel will have a serious competitor. There
is just too much market share AMD can gain over the next few years.

CKCM: I have been telling everyone I meet that this stock is undervalued by
20 bucks atleast (when it was at 24) and I know some of you have bought into
this one. This one will easily be in the 40's at the least in my opinion.

OVTI: I know this one has gone from 12 to 25 now but you can expect strength
going into earnings. If they can sustain their Growth and their margins,
this one is going way higher.

GOOG: their earnings are very important to all the lofty evaluations in the
internet sector. They need to show 1. they have gained market share and 2.
the search market is still unbelievably hot. Anyone who bought options when
it hit 400 is taking a risk going into their earnings tonight.
I am on the search of undervalued / growth companies and so if you find
some, do let me know
Cheers,
Ahu

JNPR might be oversold at 17.07

2006-04-02T14:01:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Jan 26, 2006 8:21 am Subject: JNPR might be over sold

JNPR might be oversold at $17.07
earnings actually matched estimates. a lot of selling must be stops being
triggered as JNPR already was at around 52 week lows before the plunge.

Will GOOG hit $450 before earnings

2006-04-02T14:00:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:28 am Subject: Options strategy: Will GOOG hit $450 before earnings

Options strategy based on "How sure are you that GOOG will hit $450".
Continuing on the previous options email on GOOG........
Let's consider this trading scenario only for the next 4 to 5 days because
if we consider a longer trading scenario, other factors play in. I am
talking Feb calls in the scenario discussed below.

Say the stock is at $400 when you bought the option of 400 and 410. These
options will have a higher premium than the rest because it is so close to
the money. Now if the stock reached 420, the premium for $400 call will not
be much (because chances of stock reaching 400 becomes low). This means you
are not seeing a dollar to dollar direct increase in your options value wrt
the stock value. At this point (V imp point: you should feel strongly it
will reach 450) the $420 calls will be priced to move. Therefore, sell the
400 calls and buy the 420. That way you maximise your profit potential by
holding an option (though with a higher premium) that will reap you a
greater percentage profit than a 400 call.

An obvious retort to that logic is "if I was so sure that it is going to 450
then I'll buy the 450 call directly". The higher strike price calls are
extremely well priced and secondly you lower the risk by owning lower strike
prices. Post earnings, the premiums will be lower.

GOOG down 30 bucks

2006-04-02T13:59:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:27 pm Subject: GOOG down 30 bucks

Folks GOOG is down 30 bucks. I don't think it is justified based purely on
the reason that has come out. If you still believe in what the company and
stock are doing buy the Feb $400 Feb calls although they are a little
expensive.
The Jan 400, 410, 420, 430 puts are more than 2 to 2.5 times the calls for
these dates. I think this is the reason that the subpoena is only being used
as an excuse to push the stock down to make a huge profit on all these Puts.
Which gives us an opportunity to buy calls / stocks now.

2006-04-02T13:58:00.000-07:00

Hi Ashutosh,

I think S&P ratings and Morning star are possibly some of the better reportsto look at for sure. I used to follow CECO, COCO and APOL a year back. Ithink the growth they have experienced over the last 5 years is phenomenalbut not sure if they can sustain it. There is no serious sign of a slow downthough.They seem to have strong Nov and May quarters. Their last Feb quarter hadlow revenue. They are not expensive right now but might be in a free fall asthey have broken through all support levels built over a year. Seeing CECO'sfall some time back I can tell you these companies can serious lose value.Let's see where it consolidates. Might be a good buy!

Ahu

From: Ashutosh Thakur Subject: [stock_sharks] apol>Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 22:04:35 -0800>>Hi,>S&P 500 , 2006 edition suggests Apollo as a strong buy, so does>morningstar.>I read the analyst report by mstar and it looks strong.Cash in teh bank,>less debts, plus Apollo's widely recognized University of Phoenix is the>leader in online education and the largest private university in the>country, with more than 300,000 students.>>The stock fell 9% cos the CEO left, which i feel is temporary since he was>replaced by a veteran of 19 yrs with the company.>I would say buy at 57 , S&P gave target price as 92$ whereas mstar give a>fair value estimate of $82

OVTI, CKCM, CVH, TASR

2006-04-02T13:56:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Tue Jan 10, 2006 9:34 am Subject: OVTI, CKCM, TASR, CVH

Where is the joy I need to see on this board with OVTI on 24 :)
My suggestion would be to sell OVTi before earnings if it reached 27 - 30
(based on market index etc factors). That is a good return on where we
invested (12 to 15 bucks). It has excellent momentum and can easily hit 30
if market doesn't fall back. It should really be valued at around 40 in my
opinion. Again, if they guide higher next quarter it is a different story
all together.

TASR is the other stock that has a lot of suspense. I wrote about it last
week and it has seen some 33% up since. If you got in then this piece is for
you. Unfortunately there is no affirmation in terms of earnings but more in
terms of court cases being dismissed and just the huge potential these guys
have. TASR makes the Taser guns that cops use. For those who don't know,
TASR is the single most phenomenal growth story in a year in 2003 - 2004.
Well actually it was the single most manipulated, overpriced stock then that
just flew on short covering (1000% up). The stock is purely moving on
momentum now and a lot of day trading volume (or of course on news that is
not out yet). The options which is all I trade these days are surprisingly
priced without a premium which is a drawback on this stock. There has also
been a huge closing of the 7.5 calls for Jan yesterday, another possible
negative (need not be). The options trading volume yesterday for 7.5 Jan was
at 7500 though the open interest went down by 3000. Aha! New interest in the
stock for sure and since it is trading without a premium, people might
prefer exercising the option and holding it (another potentail reason of Jan
option interest going down). One thing I can tell you is that do not
underestimate the momentum of this stock simply because it is the one that
attracts maximum day traders. This stock showed up on several BUY trading
alerts screen based on the fact that it broke through all moving averages
resistance over the last few days. Trade this one with stop markets though.
Momentum traders will dump if if they have sure proof of it's reversal. If
you are the long term investor kind of guy then hold on to it as it really
does have potential.

CKCM: Still very underpriced in my opinion.
You must think that I seem to be only covering some 5 stocks of late. I have
dozens of stocks that I am looking at for short and long plays and these did
seem the best ones. I haven't researched other stocks in as much detail if
it fails some of my criteria but I do cover another say 150 stocks and then
the stocks that show up on my screens on a day to day basis.

CVH: Is a short to 50 bucks easily but you can wait for a good time to
short.

Market direction - Shouldn't be ever predicting this one

2006-04-02T13:53:00.000-07:00

Market direction - Shouldn't be ever predicting this one. I have a poor understanding of economic forecasting. I shouldn't delve into that and instead focus on my strengths in investing.

- Ahu

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Fri Jan 6, 2006 8:33 am Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction

good point Ameez there "might be a slowing of the hike" is the correct way
to put it.
Folks by the way: Ameez is a very old friend and works with Freddie Mac in
the fixed income markets.
Prateek: CRM though seeming overly priced got an upgrade this morning and
might make a SNDK like move before earnings. Their new target is a
outrageously high $50 and I won't be surprised if it gets to 45 bucks in no
time.

>From: A Nanjee >
>Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction
>Date: Thu, 5 Jan 2006 21:32:42 -0500
>
>Just a clarification: Fed minutes, which were recently released, suggested
>there might be a slow down in hike. One of the many factors for this
>announcement could be because in March Greenspan retires. They may want to
>give the new chairman, Bernanke, the freedom to choose the direction he
>wants to take. But this does not necessarily indicate a sure stop in the
>rate hikes. Having said that, the Fixed Income side of the street did
>indeed
>lower the probability of a rate hike from 75 to 50%.
>
>Finally, the inverted curve is only between the 2 and 3 year point. All
>projections are suggesting a steepning within 6 months, either Bearish or
>Bullish.
>
>Ameez
>

OVTI and CKCM

2006-04-02T13:51:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Thu Jan 5, 2006 1:59 pm Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Market direction

Hoping OVTI goes down again :) Trading calls is working very well with OVTI.
still long on CKCM and OVTI. CKCM feels like the best undiscovered company
right now. Feel very positive about CKCM long term and OVTI as well.
CRM has really gone high man. Might buy some puts if it goes any higher for
a short term correction.

Regards,
Ahu

OSTK

2006-04-02T13:49:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 10:49 pm Subject: OSTK

I did recommend Overstock a few months back. Haven't researched it lately
but if you are holding on to it please do put stop limits. The company had a
bad earnings report and since we are in holiday season it might hold current
price levels but put stops at 6% in my opinion.

Vishal's 2 cents...

2006-04-02T13:48:00.000-07:00

From: "Vishal Kumar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:23 pm Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] MSFT is an excellent long term buy

My $0.02
IMO there are 3 possible catalysts for MS this year
- XBOX 360 - If MS makes large improvements in market share
- Search - This is a biggie. MS is behind the curve and needs to do
more. Expect GOOG to see slower growth as well.
The third one is the release of the new MS pipeline
- Windows Vista /Office all ship next yr. While I don't think anything
will impact the number of client licenses we sell there is a reasonable
revenue uptick associated with a new release since corporates will
upgrade .
Basically you can expect the stock to hit 29-30 (and that is a
conservative estimate if MS hits even some of its goals in this space.)
Off course I don't buy MS stock in the open market.. im inadvertently
invested in it through multiple avenues .. but im planning on holding
onto the stock this year.
Bottom line - will MS return 10% this year - my answer is a confident
yes
Will it outperform the S&P - probably
Is there any chance the stock will jump > 15% - very unlikely

MSFT as a long term buy

2006-04-02T13:46:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:13 am Subject: MSFT is an excellent long term buy

The more I study Microsoft and its balance sheet the more I realise that
there is no other company around that is remotely as healthy. 6 years of no
growth but I strongly feel it will jump into its next growth phase soon.
XBOX has not done that well and the stock is under pressure. In my opinion
its a stong LT buy any where close to 26. If I am not mistaken their
dividend itself is 36 cents a year. It is pressured again this morning and
so take advantage of a strong drop if any.
Good stock for any portfolio. Dividend paying, 3 bil a quarter profit making
stock that your mom will be proud of when she sees it in your portfolio with
all the other aggressive stocks ;-)

TASRE calls

2006-04-02T13:44:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:07 am Subject: tasre

Taser is a buy based on open interest for 7.5 call options. I should have
emailed this one a couple of days back as it has had quite a run.

OVTI strength and CVH

2006-04-02T13:42:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:05 am Subject: OVTI still a good buy

Showing excellent strength this morning and recovered from the technical
damage in no time and with high volume. Micron reported yesterday and is
down after earnings.

There is a healthcare company called CVH. I haven't researched it much but
saw a couple of basics failing the main one being growth. It's doing okay
due to a fairly good market but in my opinion is a short close to 60. Buy
Feb puts on this one.

OVTI's big pain: Jefferies

2006-04-02T13:40:00.001-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Wed Dec 7, 2005 10:26 pm Subject: OVTI's big pain: Jefferies

Pixelplus Co., a Korean fabless semiconductor co that makes CMOS sensors,
filed last Monday with the SEC for an IPO.
Jefferries are the underwriter!
So much for the perpetual Sell rating that Jefferies always had on OVTI.

OVTI comes through

2006-04-02T13:40:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 1, 2005 2:16 pm Subject: OVTI Earnings

Greetings from Chennai again :)
Did anyone see OVTI's earnings?
I hope you guys are still in OVTI. Last I knew a lot of you were still in.
Anyway, it just makes me wonder why no one was willing to buy this stock for
12 bucks a month back after all the trashing by Greenberg, Rocker and
Tristan Gerra. The amount of manipulation and lies on the stock was just
unbelievable. Guess the bottomline is fundamentals always win in the end.

Congratulations all!

LGF Post

2006-04-02T13:38:00.000-07:00

Hey Jamshid,

I have always thought LGF is a good stock to buy under 10. These guys makephenomenal low budget blockbusters that get high critical acclaim. They madeCrash and they made Michael Moore's second movie amongst others.
Cheers,

Ahu>
From: Jamshid Kekobad
Subject: [stock_sharks] LGF>Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 07:50:32 -0800 (PST)>>Hey Ahunawar,>> What do you think of LGF ? i am thinking of buying it today....>> the usher movie is opening tomorrow and we might see a spike in the>share price on monday...same as what happened with saw II>> jamshid

Increased Open Interest

2006-04-02T13:32:00.000-07:00

From: "Bhanu Sharma" Date: Sun Nov 13, 2005 12:23 am Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Increased open interest

The iPod and the Xbox might compete a little for the same holiday shopping dollars, but I don't see the overlap of the target segment to be significant enough to impact iPod sales.

An MP3 music player is a far more generic holiday gift, than a video game console, since most folks won't consider gifting the Xbox 360 to their grandparents, aunts and uncles etc. and also, if you look at a typical household, there might be one Xbox for the whole family, with still an iPod for each family member.

With hordes of high school kids earning bragging rights by showing off their newest Nano's and iPod 5G's in school, commuters, fitness freaks etc. buying iPods, I clearly see the iPod as a very strong holiday contender.

For those interested in the iPod related economy, PLAY and AAPL both are going up around 15% by Jan, 06, IMHO.

I've been holding to my Apple stock, because I don't know of another "to die for" gadget in the market, this holiday season.

Still a good time to consider investing a little in these companies.(and buying yourself the latest Video iPod or Nano)

Bhanu
----- Original Message -----

To: stock_sharks@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2005 7:29 PM
Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Increased open interest
I wouldnt bank too much on IPOD sales going too high this holiday season as they will be splitting sales with the XBOX360. They are both the same price range (almost)harish rao

Ahu,
Good to hear from you. Getting to the point, I think PortalPlayer(PLAY)looks good for a quick trade, they make memory chips being used in IPODs, and they were down 24% from the time they announced their secondary offering. Now they have yanked their offering, and look good to meet their new EPS(up from 37 cents a share to 47 cents) especially after the strong holiday season that IPOD's expect to have.
Moreever they have a P/E of 13.1 which I think is pretty low for this stock. The stock did go up 14% EOD today, but I think it is definitely worth a 10% up trade in near future.
Let me know your thoughts.
Harish

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Increased open interestDate: Wed, 09 Nov 2005 10:09:45 -0800>>The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open>interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting>that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding>today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.>>Cheers,>Ahu>>http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/>

Nov $15 calls for OVTI

2006-04-02T13:30:00.000-07:00

From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Wed Nov 9, 2005 10:09 am Subject: Increased open interest

The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open
interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting
that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding
today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.
Cheers,
Ahu

Market direction over the next 3 to 4 months?

2005-10-02T19:14:00.000-07:00

We are at an interesting place in the markets today. Let's try to evaluate.

Two most influential factors in my opinion:

1. Katrina: This is a truly unfortunate disaster but I must say that what doesn't kill the market only makes it stronger just as in this case. Disasters equate to federal spending and donations. A lot of federal spending is done in the initial 1 or 2 months and then it pans out over the next few years. This spending really helps the economy. Walmart after closing a 100+ stores is reporting same store sales are up 3.8% (high end of expectations). Consumer confidence came in really low. After early October earnings season, if earnings aren't affected by Katrina, consumer confidence numbers will spring right back up in time for the holiday season. Point in case 9/11 bombings and the subsequent fall in September and bounce back in October / November. This unfortunate disaster has a positive short term effect on the market in my opinion and I must take the contrarian view to CNBC.

2. Technical levels: We attained 4 year highs a couple of months back and inspite of Katrina and it's immediate effect on the markets, we have maintained the technical levels quite well. We just crossed the 20 DMA and could cross 50 DMA and re-establish the upward trend. Believe it or not, we have eked out gains in the September month which is usually the weakest month of the year. October on the contrary is the strongest month of the year with an average of 2.8% growth in the index.

Some other positives:
- Corporate profits and cash positions at an all time high. Not necessarily displaying growth but companies are healthy and their operations are fairly streamlined.
- Worldwide markets are taking off: Nikkei, Germany, India and some other Asian countries are at 4 year highs and that bodes well for investor sentiment.
- Inflation in control and fed monitoring the markets tightly. No liquidity concerns yet

Summary: We all need confirmation of earnings not being affected by Katrina. Wait for the first few days of October and watch out for any warnings and then buy into sectors or companies you believe in.

p.s. Please contain you excitement on India. There is such a thing as too much too fast and BSE needs to show support at these levels in my opinion.

David Rockers Short positions

2005-10-01T12:52:00.000-07:00

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898373/000089837305000006/0000898373-05-000006.txt

DavidRocker's short positions and how strange that TASR, OVTI, OSTK are all listed othe same set of exchanges as in the link given below. I got this off the messae board on Yahoo.

Number of exchanges OVTI is listed on

2005-10-01T12:51:00.000-07:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=omnivision&t=S&m=

More on what this implies later.

High call volume for Oct 21st $20 strike price

2005-09-29T13:17:00.000-07:00

Check out this link and see the volume for the $20 strike price for October 21st.

It is the second highest call activity and very weird considering $20 is far off.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=OVTI

Attended the OVTI Shareholder meeting in person

2005-09-28T12:09:00.000-07:00

I attended the OVTI shareholder meeting in person. This is definitely a first for me. Went to a shareholder meeting for the first time. About 50 attendees.

1. I like Hong. He looks like a straight up guy and more of an engineer. His presentation was excellent. I am convinced about this company's potential.

2. They did not reiterate their guidance but mentioned that they might do it soon.

3. One guy created a lot of noise about the conspiracy theory of shorts. For the record, I believe it's all true. Management listened but as usual promised nothing except that they are working on it. I sensed the folks were genuine throughout.

4. Raymond Wu can't seem to cancel whatever he has filed and so every Monday there is a sell.

5. Management should buy stock but no commitment there.

6. They were made aware of all the conspiracy theories. I used the NFLX example wrt Herb Greensberg and how he downgraded the stock at 10 and gave it a target of 4. Also, of how OSTK CEO came out with a lawsuit against the short attackers as he and family owned most of the company's shares. I spoke to CFO Peter in person about the shares shorted of 20.7 Mil on a company that has 58 Mil outstanding. He himself was surprised about how they could get so many shares to short considering institutions own 80+%. Peter looks like the Field Marshall of the Indian army, Sam Maneckshaw - no kidding :)

7. XBOX will have a camera. They didn't say they were supplying the chip for it but said that they are aggressively pursuing all opportunities (with a large smile).

8. Automotive Industry can have chips installed for
- Rain sensor
- Lane departure warning
- Rear view camera systems
- Smart air bags.
Projected 20 Mil chips for 2008.

9. Wavefront coding based chips will come out mid-2006 and will have auto focus.

I came away with a good feeling over all. Vicky got it bad because of her poor communication with the invesotor community I am even more convinced on the short conspiracy theory. There was another guy there who made a lot of comments about how he knew about the shorts conspiracy theory.

Not sure if this helps anyone but I thought it's fun to see and speak to the management of the company that I have followed for more than three years.

Riverstone Networks financials discussed

2005-09-23T10:56:00.000-07:00

Riverstone Networks, rstn.pk, financials discussed. It's a pinksheet company. No recommendation on the stock. A friend suggested the company. Take a look at their recent filings.

http://ir.riverstonenet.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=123844&p=irol-sec

Summary:

6 months earnings until Feb 2005 is 34.1 Mil up 22% from the previous 6 month period. Revenue split up is 19.6 (nov 2004 quarter end) and 14.5 (feb 2005 quarter end).

Aug 2004: Cash position: 256.4 Mil

Feb 2005: Cash position: 223.3 Mil. Changes include one time insurance reimbursement and so +14.1 Mil and a one time Class action loss: -18.5 Mil - 2 Mil Interasys lawsuit. So actual operating losses for the 6 months = 26.5 Mil approximately. Convertible Debt = 131.8 Mil May 2005: Riverstone: Redeems half of outstanding notes. Meaning removes 65.875 Mil debt. Debt remaining 65.875 Mil.

No reports of earnings after Feb 26, 2005. Bottomline is that company made an operating loss of 26.5 Mil in the 6 months prior to Feb 26. If we assume that company did not lose more in the next 6 months in operations (big assumption but considering company is getting back on track, it's a fair assumption to make). Current cash position = 223.3 Mil - 27 Mil = 195 Mil. Subtract from this one time charges which we are not yet aware of such as Toshiba lawsuit, which as per their statements "not materially impacted", should hopefully not be much. Also, subtract entire debt. Therefore 195 Mil - 131.8 Mil = 63.2 Mil. Not looking that hot any more :-) We need to know what are their revenues now, any lawsuits remaining and what are their losses to make any judgement.

What we haven't considered here is any long term assets which really have value. Long term asset value is usually quite inflated by companies. The other important piece is what do you think of the future of the business. They might be in a hot area but the networking guys on this list need to confirm that if possible. Profile on the 8K says:
"Riverstone Networks, Inc. (RSTN.PK) is a leading provider of carrier Ethernet infrastructure solutions for business and residential communications services. Riverstone’s Ethernet router portfolio uniquely delivers the reliability that allows carriers to meet the triple play - voice, video and data - service requirements of their customers in a cost-effective and scalable way. Riverstone allows carriers to offer new services over existing revenue-generating networks permitting them to evolve to a next generation Ethernet infrastructure."

I think the company has disclosed very little. If management knows of a rebound, it will take place almost only after company gives management some options and so there is dilution.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/

OVTI earnings guidance record

2005-09-23T09:25:00.000-07:00

The latest analyst note on OVTI says that they doubt OVTI can meet guidance for the next quarter.

Due to length of product cycles, OVTI always knows where they stand approximately 3 months in advance. I caught a post on yahoo finance. You can also cross check it on Yahoo finance at least for the last 4 quarters. For seven quarters they have met or exceeded their guidance. Will they do it again is anyone's call.

Here is a summary of guidance vs. actual performance for the past 7 quarters. G=Guidance A=Actual.

1/31/04
G REV 74-78 EPS .40-.42
A REV 94.5 EPS .57

4/30/04
G REV 96-100 EPS .30-.31
A REV 99.7 EPS .34

7/31/04
G REV 95-100 EPS .29-.31
A REV 98.8 EPS .32

10/31/04
G REV 80-90 EPS .20-.25
A REV 84.4 EPS .28

1/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .24-.29
A REV 101.8 EPS .33

4/30/05
G REV 93-103 EPS .29-.34
A REV 103 EPS .30

7/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .22-.27
A REV 96 EPS .25

OVTI October $15 calls at 10 cents

2005-09-21T09:24:00.000-07:00

Alright, so a stock moved way lower after you bought it when you thought it was cheap in the first place. You smell some over the board manipulation as in the case of OVTI. Is there a chance you can profit quickly and with low risk?

Enter options - Limited risk and unlimited profits: Buying Calls e.g. 1 contract call for October options with a strike price of $15 means that you are buying an option to buy 100 stocks at $15 on Oct 21st (3rd Friday of the month). In effect you are betting on a stock to go up. Works perfectly well when a stock has had a recent drop such as OVTI and you think current levels are a good buy but you want to maximize profits and so buy options instead of stock.

Price of OVTI call is 10 cents today for the Oct 21st $15 strike price. Buying one contract means buying an option for a 100 stocks. This means that if you buy a 200 contracts = 200 * (100 * 0.10) = $2000.

Worst situation - You made a terrible decision and come Oct 21 these options expire worthless as stock never crossed 15 and never even made a jump to higher prices from existing 12.6 levels. You lose your 2000 dollar investment.

Good situation - Some buying kicks in and stocks move to say 13.5 in the next 1 or 2 weeks. The same $15 call option is now worth much more than 10 cents because it's probability of hitting 15 has increased dramatically (earler the gap was 15 - 12.6 = 2.4, now it's 15 - 13.5 = 1.5). With such a small increase in price, the option price for the $15 Oct 21st Call could easily double of triple (20 or 30 cents) and you could take your profits, meaning $2000 to $4000 profit on a $2000 investment. Okay so in the "Good situation" you are betting that the stock hits 13.5 to 14 atleast once in the next 15 - 21 days. Remember the closer it is to the Oct 21st date the riskier your investment becomes, so it's not a bad idea to cash out.

Excellent situation: Stock does live upto it's potential and goes to 16 - 17 bucks over the next 3 weeks. Option value in this case can easily be 0.8 to 1.5. Meaning your 10 cents buy has gone up to anywhere between 0.8 to 1.5, a 800% to 1500% return on investment.

Consider buying options. It has excellent potential. Worst case you lost that $2000 and the best case - well, benefits are unlimited.

Robert Baird note on OVTI

2005-09-21T09:12:00.000-07:00

You might know of the negative note by Robert Baird (analyst) yesterday on OVTI saying they've lost Motorola as their customer. True as that might be in my opinion management would have considered that while giving out guidance on earnings call. This kind of news is always in the making and companies don't get up one morning to find out that they lost a big customer. Their biggest new customer win is Lenovo and they supplied chips to the top 6 cell phone manufacturers anyway (remove motorola now and so 5). I am just surprised at how expensive stocks like Micron are when they are making such huge losses where as OVTI which has 6 bucks in cash and some 80 - 90 Mil in profit last year is trading at such discounts.

33% short ratio at these levels could very well result in a squeeze specially since management never cares to respond to any negative press releases and so it's a free hand for the big guys.

How do you counter the free for all manipulation from the big guys? Hmmm... buy some really cheap calls may be?

posting anything

2005-09-20T19:22:00.000-07:00

posting anything

Robert Baird note on OVTI

2005-09-20T19:17:00.000-07:00

"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15."

This is certainly bad news but I don't think the company didn't know of this when they gave guidance. OVTI has been quite good at meeting their near term guidance in the past. Why? Cause in their business they chip manufacturing are quite long and so they need to know requirements 3 months in advance always.

$15 options for Oct 21st are fluctuating at 5 - 10 cents. It will double or go even higher if the stock moves up a dollar.

Robert Baird note on OVTI

2005-09-20T19:07:00.000-07:00

"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15 "

I think the stock will not go much lower. Chances are very small that OVTI gets this news overnight. It has to be in the making and so if the conference calls from a few days back is to be believed, it implies OVTI mostly likely knew about this. Lenovo business is huge and they will be supplying chips to Lenovo for laptops as well. Lenovo laptop sales will beat dell shortly.

A good strategy is to buy $15 calls for Oct 15 at 5 - 10 cents and sell it at double the price or more if the stock moves up by a dollar.

ANF: Hold

2005-09-19T19:21:00.000-07:00

ANF: Abercrombie and Fitch

Looks like a pretty good company with growth and good expansionplans. It has had quite a run though over the last year or so. May beI am thinking from a short term perspective but when a stock is on adownward spiral and very quickly too, I am scared of touching it. Let it go down and consolidate. If it's a good growth company then you willhave plenty of chances to dip in when it settles.

One point to make of retailers is that they are very dependent on branding. Teenagers which comprise of ANF's biggest market havedifferent fads every year. Another dangerously scary piece ofinformation is that 90.3% of insider shares have been sold over thelast one year and that is excessively high.

I think you have a good chance of seeing the early forties and if you really believe in the brand then it's a good idea to buy it there asit has some technical support in that region.

There could be a dead cat bounce in the near future since it has gonedown very quickly but as a long term investor that's not what you arelooking for I presume.

OVTI October $15 calls

2005-09-19T07:46:00.000-07:00

October $15 calls are available at 10 cents bid and 15 cents ask. Any small move to the upside will double or quadruple the $15 call price for October.

Trading bankruptcies is pure speculation

2005-09-15T13:23:00.000-07:00

Important Note: Class A shares of companies that go bankrupt are almost always worth NOTHING. So remember that if you are trading NWAC tomorrow, you HAVE to trade with tight stops. The gains are big but this is pure speculation. I wouldn't call it all luck - cause Hedge funds almost always make money on this.

Buying their bonds of course can be valuable when they are rated to junk. Specially airlines.

MSN Money - The speculator: Trading bankruptcies

2005-09-15T13:19:00.000-07:00

MSN Money - The Speculator

Delta, Northwest Bonds Trade Actively: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

2005-09-15T13:12:00.000-07:00

Good article on how to trade bankruptcies. Let's see how NWAC plays tomorrow. I have traded it a few times today.

OVTI: Man it's a pain in the ass

2005-09-14T20:36:00.000-07:00

This one was due. I am really bummed on OVTI and specially their arrogant management.

My sentiments on this one remain the same BUY. Nothing changes in OVTI but two things.
1. They have been accused of lying on the conference call by Herb Greenberg and the Jefferies analyst. 5.9 million revenue recognized from written off inventory. I clearly remember when asked about revenue contribution from written off inventory, the answer was "nothing substantial". To make things worse, there is no attempt from management to clear their name or come out and say something with regards to how they were misinterpreted. Herb Greenberg is a hedge fund owned scum in my opinion and has made some unbelievably bad calls such as shorting NFLX at 10 to cover at 4. I think they were all waiting for something to latch onto after earnings (short ratio is very high) and the 10Q gave them the chance and a good one to that.

2. Since management is too arrogant and never responds to Herb and the Jefferies guy, Herb takes a chance and adds the 5.9 million straight to the profits and cuts 10 cents off the earnings.
Sure they made a mistake and stock was punished. The stock has been kept down really well after all this trashing.

One interesting observation is that the Oct Puts volume is 10,404. Compare that with the 12.50 put volume 1077 or infact even the Sept calls / puts that expire on Friday. Traders often protect their positions by trading options. If they expect the stock price to be over 15 they would buy puts to protect themselves and ofcourse buy a lot of stock or begin covering. The option prices are the best today for these guys due to the low price.

If you believe the above conspiracy theory then the stock should be over 15 in less than a month :)

I am holding on for now and have infact closed some other positions to support this one.
Good luck!

http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/

How does one determine the value of a stock?

2005-09-14T10:55:00.000-07:00

A good friend asked me the eternal question of the stock markets "How does one determine the value of the stock?". Took me a day to think about the answer and since it's been qualified as the eternal question every investor asks, it doesn't have the perfect answer. Ofcourse, you can comment and add to this. I've split it up into points in order of priorities.

1.
1.1 Price to Earning: Valuation of the company. If it's a growth company then future P/E as well.
1.2 Growth: Over the last 1- 2 years (if it's a new technology company). Over the last 5 years for other groups.

2.
2.1 Balance sheet: Debt? Possible future dilution? Cash position? One time charges or benefits on balance sheet? Of course all these points need in depth analysis.
2.2 Insider holding. If insiders believe in the company, they will own more equity in the company.
2.3 Gross and Net margins. Are they increasing or decreasing?
2.4 Revenue distribution.
2.5 Price / Sales: Some companies turning the corner after years of poor performance can look expensive from every angle except this one and are sometimes the biggest gainers.
2.6 Personal experiences with the company's product. Don't discount your own instincts :)

3.
3.1 Revenue type: Diversity? Recurring revenue? How high is the risk of revenue being hit if one buyer or one product fails?
3.2 Old vs New age business sectors.

I think that's all for now. Ha!

CKCM breaks out of technical levels

2005-09-14T07:38:00.000-07:00

CKCM breaks out of the 17.2 - 18.65 range it has been trading for the last 5 weeks on strong volume to around 19.4. Upward trend will most likely be resumed. What a great accumulation time that was for everyone after market makers dropped it from 28 to 18 post earnings.

SMTX: Is it at least a momentum play?

2005-09-13T16:32:00.000-07:00

SMTX (@3.12): SMTC corporation

I would like to make an important correction to my earlier post. Yahoo finance shows Market cap as 29.35 Mil but that is incorrect. Company's 10K shows company handed out shares last year for reducing debt. Simply put: 14.2 Million shares outstanding today and 5 mil more can be exercised as per 10Q (which might have already been dumped into the open market given the recent 300% rise).

For those still following SMTX here are some updates. SMTX closed between 3.48 and 3 in the last 11 consecutive trading sessions. There was a lot of profit taking on Aug 29 where stock closed higher with 4 MIL volume after a 50% jump on the previous day. SMTX broke through earlier support levels of 3.33 to the down side a few days back on low volume. Last 3 to 4 days stock kept falling on low volume.

For the last 2 days the stock is turning around. Yesterday the stock was at 2.9 levels all day and then closed higher at 3.02 on high volume in the final hour of trading.
Same story today: Stock trades between 2.9 and 2.95 all day and surges in the last hour to close at 3.12.

Below are the trading volumes for the last 5 days.
13-Sep-05 526,517
12-Sep-05 492,100
9-Sep-05 326,100
8-Sep-05 334,800
7-Sep-05 185,700

I think it's a good time to dip in tomorrow if you believe in momentum. I am in!

If you believe in value, it's a good place to be too - the only difference being that it is not the unbelievably undervalued company I initially thought it was.

POSTS UNTIL SEPT 12, 2005 BELOW

2005-09-12T17:38:00.000-07:00

POSTS UNTIL SEPT 12, 2005 BELOW

Balance sheet questions

2005-09-12T17:36:00.000-07:00

Date: Tue Sep 6, 2005 4:36 pm

Can anyone who understands balance sheets well answer if negativeretained earnings can be used to take tax breaks. Meaning, if a companyhas made losses in the past then is there a way of carrying forward thelosses for tax benefits?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=SMTX

Also, what is your understanding of Capital Surplus and Common Stock. Itried looking up the definitions on investopedia but they don'texmplain much.

Thanks,
Ahu

Software stocks

2005-09-12T17:35:00.000-07:00

Date: Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:16 am

Hi Guys,

Another set of stocks that might be hot in a bull market are software stocksin my opinion. Look out for CKCM for RFID related stuff. I am absolutelypositive on this one, also price fell to 18 bucks from 27. Will write morelater.

ITWO: You missed the big jump of 60% in one day. I have analyzed thefinancials of this company inside out and heard their conference call on oneof the weekends and it's a super buy based on that. BUT - I just don't knowif they can turn the company around on new growth (existing products). Thenew management did an unbelievable job on taking care of the debt. I waswaiting for a secondary and these guys got an excellent secondary to reducedebt.

CRM: Salesforce: Might do exceedingly well just based on their products.Do your own research on all these stocks.

Cheers,
Ahu

RE: Upcoming FDA approvals for Bristol Myers ???

2005-09-12T17:32:00.000-07:00

Date: Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:15 am

Hi

I personally don't understand BioTech very well so tend to shy away from itbut you are right and I have seen some amazing runs in Biotech. Bristol doeslook like a decent bet. Are the results going to be out on Sept 9?

I will surely investigate ECST more. Interesting chart for sure and might beone of the December run stocks.

About IPO's: You need to have half a million in your account in the investment arm of a firm that is involved with an IPO and that's when youget a small amount of shares for the IPO that they are underwriters of. ORIt needs to be a Google like offering where everyone can participate. Here'sa link where you can track IPO's.

http://www.hoovers.com/business-information/--pageid__10005--/global-ipoc-index.\xhtml

A decent strategy is to jump early into every IPO and take a pre-decidedpercentage gain and get out. Most IPO's holders file to sell some shares atthe open and so although there is new buying pressure, the shares arepressured on the sell side. Specially considering how healthy the IPO markethas been looking of late, I think it's a good plan to trade IPO's.

Baidu.com: After all the criticism that has been handed out to this company,I saw an interesting take on it on one of the message boards. It is the 5thor 6th most visited website on Earth. Given that the top few are the yahoo,google, msn's of the world the poster argued that this should be rated atsome point at the same levels. Google besides having good technology, has astrong brand name as well. So does Baidu and ofcourse they have an excellentunderstanding of Chinese government regulations, working in tandem withChina. Here is a government that wants a search engine to not displayresults for Freedom, Demcracy etc. Baidu is on top of this and is homegrown. Ofcourse as soon as you take valuation into consideration, everythingelse sounds minor. I did trade this stock a little recently.

Cheers,
Ahu

OVTI

2005-09-12T17:31:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:54 am

Honestly I would not sell it till I find out more about what the futurerevenues over the next year look like. Then again if it touches 20, I wouldbe tempted to sell. I've just bought this morning at 14.80 and because of myusual trading patterns I might be in and out but 19 - 20, I think is totallyon.

Okay so regarding the open at 15.5 and it's down to 15.06 right now. I'veseen OVTI trade for 3 years and over the last 5 quarters they've opened upand then down after earnings. It tells you about a certain shorts frame ofmind when it comes to this stock as they always take it up high after hourson low volume and then short at high volume during market time. The samething is being tried this time and it's good to roll in shorts when you feelconfident of the news yourself.

Last 5 to 6 quarters revenues have been below a 100 MIl (couple of times in80's) and so the growth in the stock practically disappeared. Now for thefirst time the company has raised revenue targets 110 - 120 Mil. This is thecatalyst for me. - One important thing, company has almost always come intheir targeted range if not made more.

It's also exploring new markets as in the past it was stuck only to cellphones. Security cameras, car cameras and most notably 20% of all computersare expected to have these. Look for any deal struck here with a computermaker as a major win.

SMTX: Strong buy

2005-09-12T17:28:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:21 am

SMTX: SMTC corp. $2.24

SMTC Corporation provides electronics manufacturing services to originalequipment manufacturers - Strong Buy

Market cap: 20.54 Mil.Revenues: 2002 - 569 MIl, 2003 - 306Mil, 2004 - 245 Mil. Okay so decliningrevenue and market has observed sometime of a failed business model which iswhy stock price is down from 100 to 2.24. Having said that, CEO has tried toturn the company around over the last few quarters. Revenue has reduced asthey are trying to cut the unprofitable businesses and keep the profitableones.

Last quarter revenue was 49.1 Mil loss 2.6 mil. This quarter revenue is 57mil and profits 0.3 mil. Revenue growth with increased profitability. Thisstatement is the catalyst that summarizes why I think it is a screaming buy.The company is finally turning around. This was a quarter of significantfinancial improvement across the board returning to profitability,sequential growth, cash generation, improved working capital and debtreduction.

They have 17.7 mil in debts. But the debt seems to be in control. The stockprice has doubled over days, so better look at the chart.

Don't want to hype this stock but I think this stock can be the growth stockof the year. Buying over the next few days might result in fluctuationssince this stock seems way overbought in the short term but again news wasexcellent and volume was heavy and it has pulled back a little.

Good luck!

reg CPK and ILSE

2005-09-12T17:27:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:33 pm

1. don't know much about energy stocks but I know people on CNBC are verybullish on CPK specially that mad cap Cramer. Chart looks pretty good.

2. Interlase ILSE looks okay but I think a long time back I remember readingabout competition between 3 companies on Laser surgery. Can't remember thenames.

There has been some insider selling, earnings growth is slowing a little andmargins are getting hurt too. Market cap is 531 mil for a company withfuture sales of 80 mil is kind of tight, considering there will be sustainedgrowth but the current growth of 2 mil per quarter at 15, 19, 21, 23 is nothigh enough to justify the price / sales ratio in my opinion.

A lot depends on patents if any, medical reports on Lasik (acceptability)and projected growth.

Good to have you on the group Vinay ;-)

MCZ - Mad catz interactive

2005-09-12T17:23:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:58 am

MCZ is at 0.8 today. Yahoo profile description quite accurate and so stating below.

"Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, marketing,and distribution of video game accessories. Its video game accessories aremarketed under the Mad Catz and GameShark brands. The company’s productsinclude video game controllers and accessories of various types, includingcontrol pads, game enhancement software, steering wheels, joysticks, memorycards, video cables, light guns, dance pads, and microphones"

Analysis:
- Market cap 44 Mil; revenue - 2003 - 92 Mil, 2004 - 102 Mil and 2005 - 113Mil. Alright, so good revenue per share.
- P/E is at 9.64 which is really low. Not sure might have registered a onetime gain which is why it looks too good for its price.
- Last quarter's revenue was light at 14 mil and a loss of 2 mil. So surethe dollar stock fell 20 cents.
- No guidance and next quarter you might not see a significant improvementBUT after that it has immense potentialImportant points to note:
- They are selling NFL controllers now at walmart etc.
- European sales went up form 1 mil to 3 mil this quarter.
- Supply accessories to everyone (Xbox, Playstation, gamecube) lots ofpotential for revenue growth now considering new versions are going to bereleased.
- have a deal with MSFT to show XBOX logo on Xbox related accessories(margins are therefore tight but CEO expects them to improve slightly)

Cons:
- Company has some debt
- 12 Mil short term but I am sure they have a planin place.
- Stock's range has been 0.45 to 1.83 and that is a bad sign for technicalreasons- tried doing a game and flopped. Stock fell because of bad reviews therebut I think that is a good reason to buy now that earnings are over andchances are that next gaming title could be slightly better.

I think this company has tremendous growth opportunities in the comingmonths. It's a low priced stock so it can double / triple easily. Ofcourse it can revisit 0.50 since there are no short term catalysts per say but I seriously doubt it will go much lower.

Good luck!

Re: CNVR and then BOOM, THQI

2005-09-12T17:22:00.000-07:00

Date: Mon Aug 8, 2005 5:50 pm

CNVR at 9.48 and might go lower. Legg Mason just filed to sell it'sstake at 9.41. They bought their stake at 4 something and who doesn'tlike doubling in a month. I feel the stock definitely won't cross9.41 + 0.30 levels for a while. I am out of this now.

THQI: Strong revenues, weak earnings. Might drift into late 20's.

BOOM: has potential to visit late 20's and possibly lower. If you areshorting it, keep a tight stop at around 47. This stock has a lowfloat and is very volatile but excellent profit potential.

Finally, CKCM: Today down 5 bucks afterhours on earnings. Too bad Iam out of this one :)

BIDU IPO up nearly 3 times

2005-09-12T17:21:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 5, 2005 11:30 am

Baidu.com, search engine for China with an IPO price today of $27 (increasedfrom 19 – 20) is at $147 right now in 3 hours of trading. If I can breakthis down, the company had 14 Mil revenue last year and has a market cap at147 bucks of 4.3 Billion. 4 million float only which is why the price iswhere it is at. Stock is not marginable, which means you can’t short it fornow.

And you thought March 2000 was crazy :)

BIDU IPO up nearly 3 times

2005-09-12T17:20:00.000-07:00

Date: Fri Aug 5, 2005 9:24 am

Baidu IPO price was supposed to be 19 - 20 raised twice later to 27 and thestock is trading at 80 bucks. This is funnier than the 2000 days. You can'tshort the stock because security is not marginable yet.

Baidu IPO

2005-09-12T17:19:00.000-07:00

Date: Thu Aug 4, 2005 10:52 am

Chinese search engine Baidu.com will debut on Nasdaq sometime late today.There is a lot of hype around it and so do your own DD.

Ticker: BIDU

CNVR and then BOOM, THQI

2005-09-12T17:18:00.000-07:00

Date: Wed Aug 3, 2005 10:34 am

CNVR: Convera corp. Makes software used for data retrieval inside companyintranets. New initiative for indexing web pages. Not a big deal in myopinion, meaning other search companies do it as well. Less than a monthback Legg Mason invested at 4.5 bucks today price is 11.8. Recent hikeunjustified in my opinion and looks like a complete day traders play for the3 previous days.

At 11.8 company market cap is 460 Mil and annual revenues are 20 mil andcompany loses 2 to 3 mil each quarter. This in itself is a good enoughreason to short. This looks like a mamma.com kind of play and today therally has exhausted. You can short it but with tight stops at 12.8 atleastand if you are trading huge volume, then at 12.29 (intraday support levels).

Disclosure: Shorted at 12.29 and a little at 11.77.

Two more plays to short BOOM (52 wk high) and earnings tomorrow. 60 to 70%insider shares sold and THQI (52 week high), earnings after bell and 51%insider shares sold and most of them very recently. Do your own research onthese two.

MFE and WBSN

2005-09-12T17:12:00.000-07:00

Date: Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:36 pm

MFE
- McAfee, At 31.4. Recent climb after good earnings.
- Gone from 22 to 31.4 in less than 3 months.
- 83% of all insider shares sold. Talk about a managements faith in theirown company. Any sale of more than 20% is bearish
- Microsoft's OneTouch though very criticized, will give it a very seriouschallenge. Stock will tumble on the slightest news of any enterprisesadopting OneTouch and if a single success story comes out
- This company was at 2 bucks some 3 to 4 years ago and it can easilyrevisit that.

WBSN = 49.84
- Websense: provides employee Internet management software products thatenable organizations to analyze, report, and manage their employeescomputing resources, including Internet access, instant messaging (IM),peer-to-peer file sharing, network bandwidth, and desktop applications.
- Good growth etc, only screw up margins are 93%. This means the big guysare waiting to enter this market. Can't imagine MSFT or Symantec not comingout with a competing product if margins are this high.
- 82% insider shares sold.
- No announcement made yet but as soon as a competitor shows up this stockis going down.
- Careful though on the company being sold. Average probablility.