We are at an interesting place in the markets today. Let's try to evaluate.
Two most influential factors in my opinion:
1. Katrina: This is a truly unfortunate disaster but I must say that what doesn't kill the market only makes it stronger just as in this case. Disasters equate to federal spending and donations. A lot of federal spending is done in the initial 1 or 2 months and then it pans out over the next few years. This spending really helps the economy. Walmart after closing a 100+ stores is reporting same store sales are up 3.8% (high end of expectations). Consumer confidence came in really low. After early October earnings season, if earnings aren't affected by Katrina, consumer confidence numbers will spring right back up in time for the holiday season. Point in case 9/11 bombings and the subsequent fall in September and bounce back in October / November. This unfortunate disaster has a positive short term effect on the market in my opinion and I must take the contrarian view to CNBC.
2. Technical levels: We attained 4 year highs a couple of months back and inspite of Katrina and it's immediate effect on the markets, we have maintained the technical levels quite well. We just crossed the 20 DMA and could cross 50 DMA and re-establish the upward trend. Believe it or not, we have eked out gains in the September month which is usually the weakest month of the year. October on the contrary is the strongest month of the year with an average of 2.8% growth in the index.
Some other positives:
- Corporate profits and cash positions at an all time high. Not necessarily displaying growth but companies are healthy and their operations are fairly streamlined.
- Worldwide markets are taking off: Nikkei, Germany, India and some other Asian countries are at 4 year highs and that bodes well for investor sentiment.
- Inflation in control and fed monitoring the markets tightly. No liquidity concerns yet
Summary: We all need confirmation of earnings not being affected by Katrina. Wait for the first few days of October and watch out for any warnings and then buy into sectors or companies you believe in.
p.s. Please contain you excitement on India. There is such a thing as too much too fast and BSE needs to show support at these levels in my opinion.
Sunday, October 02, 2005
Saturday, October 01, 2005
David Rockers Short positions
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898373/000089837305000006/0000898373-05-000006.txt
DavidRocker's short positions and how strange that TASR, OVTI, OSTK are all listed othe same set of exchanges as in the link given below. I got this off the messae board on Yahoo.
DavidRocker's short positions and how strange that TASR, OVTI, OSTK are all listed othe same set of exchanges as in the link given below. I got this off the messae board on Yahoo.
Thursday, September 29, 2005
High call volume for Oct 21st $20 strike price
Check out this link and see the volume for the $20 strike price for October 21st.
It is the second highest call activity and very weird considering $20 is far off.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=OVTI
It is the second highest call activity and very weird considering $20 is far off.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=OVTI
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Attended the OVTI Shareholder meeting in person
I attended the OVTI shareholder meeting in person. This is definitely a first for me. Went to a shareholder meeting for the first time. About 50 attendees.
1. I like Hong. He looks like a straight up guy and more of an engineer. His presentation was excellent. I am convinced about this company's potential.
2. They did not reiterate their guidance but mentioned that they might do it soon.
3. One guy created a lot of noise about the conspiracy theory of shorts. For the record, I believe it's all true. Management listened but as usual promised nothing except that they are working on it. I sensed the folks were genuine throughout.
4. Raymond Wu can't seem to cancel whatever he has filed and so every Monday there is a sell.
5. Management should buy stock but no commitment there.
6. They were made aware of all the conspiracy theories. I used the NFLX example wrt Herb Greensberg and how he downgraded the stock at 10 and gave it a target of 4. Also, of how OSTK CEO came out with a lawsuit against the short attackers as he and family owned most of the company's shares. I spoke to CFO Peter in person about the shares shorted of 20.7 Mil on a company that has 58 Mil outstanding. He himself was surprised about how they could get so many shares to short considering institutions own 80+%. Peter looks like the Field Marshall of the Indian army, Sam Maneckshaw - no kidding :)
7. XBOX will have a camera. They didn't say they were supplying the chip for it but said that they are aggressively pursuing all opportunities (with a large smile).
8. Automotive Industry can have chips installed for
- Rain sensor
- Lane departure warning
- Rear view camera systems
- Smart air bags.
Projected 20 Mil chips for 2008.
9. Wavefront coding based chips will come out mid-2006 and will have auto focus.
I came away with a good feeling over all. Vicky got it bad because of her poor communication with the invesotor community I am even more convinced on the short conspiracy theory. There was another guy there who made a lot of comments about how he knew about the shorts conspiracy theory.
Not sure if this helps anyone but I thought it's fun to see and speak to the management of the company that I have followed for more than three years.
1. I like Hong. He looks like a straight up guy and more of an engineer. His presentation was excellent. I am convinced about this company's potential.
2. They did not reiterate their guidance but mentioned that they might do it soon.
3. One guy created a lot of noise about the conspiracy theory of shorts. For the record, I believe it's all true. Management listened but as usual promised nothing except that they are working on it. I sensed the folks were genuine throughout.
4. Raymond Wu can't seem to cancel whatever he has filed and so every Monday there is a sell.
5. Management should buy stock but no commitment there.
6. They were made aware of all the conspiracy theories. I used the NFLX example wrt Herb Greensberg and how he downgraded the stock at 10 and gave it a target of 4. Also, of how OSTK CEO came out with a lawsuit against the short attackers as he and family owned most of the company's shares. I spoke to CFO Peter in person about the shares shorted of 20.7 Mil on a company that has 58 Mil outstanding. He himself was surprised about how they could get so many shares to short considering institutions own 80+%. Peter looks like the Field Marshall of the Indian army, Sam Maneckshaw - no kidding :)
7. XBOX will have a camera. They didn't say they were supplying the chip for it but said that they are aggressively pursuing all opportunities (with a large smile).
8. Automotive Industry can have chips installed for
- Rain sensor
- Lane departure warning
- Rear view camera systems
- Smart air bags.
Projected 20 Mil chips for 2008.
9. Wavefront coding based chips will come out mid-2006 and will have auto focus.
I came away with a good feeling over all. Vicky got it bad because of her poor communication with the invesotor community I am even more convinced on the short conspiracy theory. There was another guy there who made a lot of comments about how he knew about the shorts conspiracy theory.
Not sure if this helps anyone but I thought it's fun to see and speak to the management of the company that I have followed for more than three years.
Friday, September 23, 2005
Riverstone Networks financials discussed
Riverstone Networks, rstn.pk, financials discussed. It's a pinksheet company. No recommendation on the stock. A friend suggested the company. Take a look at their recent filings.
http://ir.riverstonenet.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=123844&p=irol-sec
Summary:
6 months earnings until Feb 2005 is 34.1 Mil up 22% from the previous 6 month period. Revenue split up is 19.6 (nov 2004 quarter end) and 14.5 (feb 2005 quarter end).
Aug 2004: Cash position: 256.4 Mil
Feb 2005: Cash position: 223.3 Mil. Changes include one time insurance reimbursement and so +14.1 Mil and a one time Class action loss: -18.5 Mil - 2 Mil Interasys lawsuit. So actual operating losses for the 6 months = 26.5 Mil approximately. Convertible Debt = 131.8 Mil May 2005: Riverstone: Redeems half of outstanding notes. Meaning removes 65.875 Mil debt. Debt remaining 65.875 Mil.
No reports of earnings after Feb 26, 2005. Bottomline is that company made an operating loss of 26.5 Mil in the 6 months prior to Feb 26. If we assume that company did not lose more in the next 6 months in operations (big assumption but considering company is getting back on track, it's a fair assumption to make). Current cash position = 223.3 Mil - 27 Mil = 195 Mil. Subtract from this one time charges which we are not yet aware of such as Toshiba lawsuit, which as per their statements "not materially impacted", should hopefully not be much. Also, subtract entire debt. Therefore 195 Mil - 131.8 Mil = 63.2 Mil. Not looking that hot any more :-) We need to know what are their revenues now, any lawsuits remaining and what are their losses to make any judgement.
What we haven't considered here is any long term assets which really have value. Long term asset value is usually quite inflated by companies. The other important piece is what do you think of the future of the business. They might be in a hot area but the networking guys on this list need to confirm that if possible. Profile on the 8K says:
"Riverstone Networks, Inc. (RSTN.PK) is a leading provider of carrier Ethernet infrastructure solutions for business and residential communications services. Riverstone’s Ethernet router portfolio uniquely delivers the reliability that allows carriers to meet the triple play - voice, video and data - service requirements of their customers in a cost-effective and scalable way. Riverstone allows carriers to offer new services over existing revenue-generating networks permitting them to evolve to a next generation Ethernet infrastructure."
I think the company has disclosed very little. If management knows of a rebound, it will take place almost only after company gives management some options and so there is dilution.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/
http://ir.riverstonenet.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=123844&p=irol-sec
Summary:
6 months earnings until Feb 2005 is 34.1 Mil up 22% from the previous 6 month period. Revenue split up is 19.6 (nov 2004 quarter end) and 14.5 (feb 2005 quarter end).
Aug 2004: Cash position: 256.4 Mil
Feb 2005: Cash position: 223.3 Mil. Changes include one time insurance reimbursement and so +14.1 Mil and a one time Class action loss: -18.5 Mil - 2 Mil Interasys lawsuit. So actual operating losses for the 6 months = 26.5 Mil approximately. Convertible Debt = 131.8 Mil May 2005: Riverstone: Redeems half of outstanding notes. Meaning removes 65.875 Mil debt. Debt remaining 65.875 Mil.
No reports of earnings after Feb 26, 2005. Bottomline is that company made an operating loss of 26.5 Mil in the 6 months prior to Feb 26. If we assume that company did not lose more in the next 6 months in operations (big assumption but considering company is getting back on track, it's a fair assumption to make). Current cash position = 223.3 Mil - 27 Mil = 195 Mil. Subtract from this one time charges which we are not yet aware of such as Toshiba lawsuit, which as per their statements "not materially impacted", should hopefully not be much. Also, subtract entire debt. Therefore 195 Mil - 131.8 Mil = 63.2 Mil. Not looking that hot any more :-) We need to know what are their revenues now, any lawsuits remaining and what are their losses to make any judgement.
What we haven't considered here is any long term assets which really have value. Long term asset value is usually quite inflated by companies. The other important piece is what do you think of the future of the business. They might be in a hot area but the networking guys on this list need to confirm that if possible. Profile on the 8K says:
"Riverstone Networks, Inc. (RSTN.PK) is a leading provider of carrier Ethernet infrastructure solutions for business and residential communications services. Riverstone’s Ethernet router portfolio uniquely delivers the reliability that allows carriers to meet the triple play - voice, video and data - service requirements of their customers in a cost-effective and scalable way. Riverstone allows carriers to offer new services over existing revenue-generating networks permitting them to evolve to a next generation Ethernet infrastructure."
I think the company has disclosed very little. If management knows of a rebound, it will take place almost only after company gives management some options and so there is dilution.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/
OVTI earnings guidance record
The latest analyst note on OVTI says that they doubt OVTI can meet guidance for the next quarter.
Due to length of product cycles, OVTI always knows where they stand approximately 3 months in advance. I caught a post on yahoo finance. You can also cross check it on Yahoo finance at least for the last 4 quarters. For seven quarters they have met or exceeded their guidance. Will they do it again is anyone's call.
Here is a summary of guidance vs. actual performance for the past 7 quarters. G=Guidance A=Actual.
1/31/04
G REV 74-78 EPS .40-.42
A REV 94.5 EPS .57
4/30/04
G REV 96-100 EPS .30-.31
A REV 99.7 EPS .34
7/31/04
G REV 95-100 EPS .29-.31
A REV 98.8 EPS .32
10/31/04
G REV 80-90 EPS .20-.25
A REV 84.4 EPS .28
1/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .24-.29
A REV 101.8 EPS .33
4/30/05
G REV 93-103 EPS .29-.34
A REV 103 EPS .30
7/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .22-.27
A REV 96 EPS .25
Due to length of product cycles, OVTI always knows where they stand approximately 3 months in advance. I caught a post on yahoo finance. You can also cross check it on Yahoo finance at least for the last 4 quarters. For seven quarters they have met or exceeded their guidance. Will they do it again is anyone's call.
Here is a summary of guidance vs. actual performance for the past 7 quarters. G=Guidance A=Actual.
1/31/04
G REV 74-78 EPS .40-.42
A REV 94.5 EPS .57
4/30/04
G REV 96-100 EPS .30-.31
A REV 99.7 EPS .34
7/31/04
G REV 95-100 EPS .29-.31
A REV 98.8 EPS .32
10/31/04
G REV 80-90 EPS .20-.25
A REV 84.4 EPS .28
1/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .24-.29
A REV 101.8 EPS .33
4/30/05
G REV 93-103 EPS .29-.34
A REV 103 EPS .30
7/31/05
G REV 90-100 EPS .22-.27
A REV 96 EPS .25
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
OVTI October $15 calls at 10 cents
Alright, so a stock moved way lower after you bought it when you thought it was cheap in the first place. You smell some over the board manipulation as in the case of OVTI. Is there a chance you can profit quickly and with low risk?
Enter options - Limited risk and unlimited profits: Buying Calls e.g. 1 contract call for October options with a strike price of $15 means that you are buying an option to buy 100 stocks at $15 on Oct 21st (3rd Friday of the month). In effect you are betting on a stock to go up. Works perfectly well when a stock has had a recent drop such as OVTI and you think current levels are a good buy but you want to maximize profits and so buy options instead of stock.
Price of OVTI call is 10 cents today for the Oct 21st $15 strike price. Buying one contract means buying an option for a 100 stocks. This means that if you buy a 200 contracts = 200 * (100 * 0.10) = $2000.
Worst situation - You made a terrible decision and come Oct 21 these options expire worthless as stock never crossed 15 and never even made a jump to higher prices from existing 12.6 levels. You lose your 2000 dollar investment.
Good situation - Some buying kicks in and stocks move to say 13.5 in the next 1 or 2 weeks. The same $15 call option is now worth much more than 10 cents because it's probability of hitting 15 has increased dramatically (earler the gap was 15 - 12.6 = 2.4, now it's 15 - 13.5 = 1.5). With such a small increase in price, the option price for the $15 Oct 21st Call could easily double of triple (20 or 30 cents) and you could take your profits, meaning $2000 to $4000 profit on a $2000 investment. Okay so in the "Good situation" you are betting that the stock hits 13.5 to 14 atleast once in the next 15 - 21 days. Remember the closer it is to the Oct 21st date the riskier your investment becomes, so it's not a bad idea to cash out.
Excellent situation: Stock does live upto it's potential and goes to 16 - 17 bucks over the next 3 weeks. Option value in this case can easily be 0.8 to 1.5. Meaning your 10 cents buy has gone up to anywhere between 0.8 to 1.5, a 800% to 1500% return on investment.
Consider buying options. It has excellent potential. Worst case you lost that $2000 and the best case - well, benefits are unlimited.
Enter options - Limited risk and unlimited profits: Buying Calls e.g. 1 contract call for October options with a strike price of $15 means that you are buying an option to buy 100 stocks at $15 on Oct 21st (3rd Friday of the month). In effect you are betting on a stock to go up. Works perfectly well when a stock has had a recent drop such as OVTI and you think current levels are a good buy but you want to maximize profits and so buy options instead of stock.
Price of OVTI call is 10 cents today for the Oct 21st $15 strike price. Buying one contract means buying an option for a 100 stocks. This means that if you buy a 200 contracts = 200 * (100 * 0.10) = $2000.
Worst situation - You made a terrible decision and come Oct 21 these options expire worthless as stock never crossed 15 and never even made a jump to higher prices from existing 12.6 levels. You lose your 2000 dollar investment.
Good situation - Some buying kicks in and stocks move to say 13.5 in the next 1 or 2 weeks. The same $15 call option is now worth much more than 10 cents because it's probability of hitting 15 has increased dramatically (earler the gap was 15 - 12.6 = 2.4, now it's 15 - 13.5 = 1.5). With such a small increase in price, the option price for the $15 Oct 21st Call could easily double of triple (20 or 30 cents) and you could take your profits, meaning $2000 to $4000 profit on a $2000 investment. Okay so in the "Good situation" you are betting that the stock hits 13.5 to 14 atleast once in the next 15 - 21 days. Remember the closer it is to the Oct 21st date the riskier your investment becomes, so it's not a bad idea to cash out.
Excellent situation: Stock does live upto it's potential and goes to 16 - 17 bucks over the next 3 weeks. Option value in this case can easily be 0.8 to 1.5. Meaning your 10 cents buy has gone up to anywhere between 0.8 to 1.5, a 800% to 1500% return on investment.
Consider buying options. It has excellent potential. Worst case you lost that $2000 and the best case - well, benefits are unlimited.
Robert Baird note on OVTI
You might know of the negative note by Robert Baird (analyst) yesterday on OVTI saying they've lost Motorola as their customer. True as that might be in my opinion management would have considered that while giving out guidance on earnings call. This kind of news is always in the making and companies don't get up one morning to find out that they lost a big customer. Their biggest new customer win is Lenovo and they supplied chips to the top 6 cell phone manufacturers anyway (remove motorola now and so 5). I am just surprised at how expensive stocks like Micron are when they are making such huge losses where as OVTI which has 6 bucks in cash and some 80 - 90 Mil in profit last year is trading at such discounts.
33% short ratio at these levels could very well result in a squeeze specially since management never cares to respond to any negative press releases and so it's a free hand for the big guys.
How do you counter the free for all manipulation from the big guys? Hmmm... buy some really cheap calls may be?
33% short ratio at these levels could very well result in a squeeze specially since management never cares to respond to any negative press releases and so it's a free hand for the big guys.
How do you counter the free for all manipulation from the big guys? Hmmm... buy some really cheap calls may be?
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Robert Baird note on OVTI
"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15."
This is certainly bad news but I don't think the company didn't know of this when they gave guidance. OVTI has been quite good at meeting their near term guidance in the past. Why? Cause in their business they chip manufacturing are quite long and so they need to know requirements 3 months in advance always.
$15 options for Oct 21st are fluctuating at 5 - 10 cents. It will double or go even higher if the stock moves up a dollar.
This is certainly bad news but I don't think the company didn't know of this when they gave guidance. OVTI has been quite good at meeting their near term guidance in the past. Why? Cause in their business they chip manufacturing are quite long and so they need to know requirements 3 months in advance always.
$15 options for Oct 21st are fluctuating at 5 - 10 cents. It will double or go even higher if the stock moves up a dollar.
Robert Baird note on OVTI
"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15 "
I think the stock will not go much lower. Chances are very small that OVTI gets this news overnight. It has to be in the making and so if the conference calls from a few days back is to be believed, it implies OVTI mostly likely knew about this. Lenovo business is huge and they will be supplying chips to Lenovo for laptops as well. Lenovo laptop sales will beat dell shortly.
A good strategy is to buy $15 calls for Oct 15 at 5 - 10 cents and sell it at double the price or more if the stock moves up by a dollar.
I think the stock will not go much lower. Chances are very small that OVTI gets this news overnight. It has to be in the making and so if the conference calls from a few days back is to be believed, it implies OVTI mostly likely knew about this. Lenovo business is huge and they will be supplying chips to Lenovo for laptops as well. Lenovo laptop sales will beat dell shortly.
A good strategy is to buy $15 calls for Oct 15 at 5 - 10 cents and sell it at double the price or more if the stock moves up by a dollar.
Monday, September 19, 2005
ANF: Hold
ANF: Abercrombie and Fitch
Looks like a pretty good company with growth and good expansionplans. It has had quite a run though over the last year or so. May beI am thinking from a short term perspective but when a stock is on adownward spiral and very quickly too, I am scared of touching it. Let it go down and consolidate. If it's a good growth company then you willhave plenty of chances to dip in when it settles.
One point to make of retailers is that they are very dependent on branding. Teenagers which comprise of ANF's biggest market havedifferent fads every year. Another dangerously scary piece ofinformation is that 90.3% of insider shares have been sold over thelast one year and that is excessively high.
I think you have a good chance of seeing the early forties and if you really believe in the brand then it's a good idea to buy it there asit has some technical support in that region.
There could be a dead cat bounce in the near future since it has gonedown very quickly but as a long term investor that's not what you arelooking for I presume.
Looks like a pretty good company with growth and good expansionplans. It has had quite a run though over the last year or so. May beI am thinking from a short term perspective but when a stock is on adownward spiral and very quickly too, I am scared of touching it. Let it go down and consolidate. If it's a good growth company then you willhave plenty of chances to dip in when it settles.
One point to make of retailers is that they are very dependent on branding. Teenagers which comprise of ANF's biggest market havedifferent fads every year. Another dangerously scary piece ofinformation is that 90.3% of insider shares have been sold over thelast one year and that is excessively high.
I think you have a good chance of seeing the early forties and if you really believe in the brand then it's a good idea to buy it there asit has some technical support in that region.
There could be a dead cat bounce in the near future since it has gonedown very quickly but as a long term investor that's not what you arelooking for I presume.
OVTI October $15 calls
October $15 calls are available at 10 cents bid and 15 cents ask. Any small move to the upside will double or quadruple the $15 call price for October.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
Trading bankruptcies is pure speculation
Important Note: Class A shares of companies that go bankrupt are almost always worth NOTHING. So remember that if you are trading NWAC tomorrow, you HAVE to trade with tight stops. The gains are big but this is pure speculation. I wouldn't call it all luck - cause Hedge funds almost always make money on this.
Buying their bonds of course can be valuable when they are rated to junk. Specially airlines.
Buying their bonds of course can be valuable when they are rated to junk. Specially airlines.
Delta, Northwest Bonds Trade Actively: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Good article on how to trade bankruptcies. Let's see how NWAC plays tomorrow. I have traded it a few times today.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
OVTI: Man it's a pain in the ass
This one was due. I am really bummed on OVTI and specially their arrogant management.
My sentiments on this one remain the same BUY. Nothing changes in OVTI but two things.
1. They have been accused of lying on the conference call by Herb Greenberg and the Jefferies analyst. 5.9 million revenue recognized from written off inventory. I clearly remember when asked about revenue contribution from written off inventory, the answer was "nothing substantial". To make things worse, there is no attempt from management to clear their name or come out and say something with regards to how they were misinterpreted. Herb Greenberg is a hedge fund owned scum in my opinion and has made some unbelievably bad calls such as shorting NFLX at 10 to cover at 4. I think they were all waiting for something to latch onto after earnings (short ratio is very high) and the 10Q gave them the chance and a good one to that.
2. Since management is too arrogant and never responds to Herb and the Jefferies guy, Herb takes a chance and adds the 5.9 million straight to the profits and cuts 10 cents off the earnings.
Sure they made a mistake and stock was punished. The stock has been kept down really well after all this trashing.
One interesting observation is that the Oct Puts volume is 10,404. Compare that with the 12.50 put volume 1077 or infact even the Sept calls / puts that expire on Friday. Traders often protect their positions by trading options. If they expect the stock price to be over 15 they would buy puts to protect themselves and ofcourse buy a lot of stock or begin covering. The option prices are the best today for these guys due to the low price.
If you believe the above conspiracy theory then the stock should be over 15 in less than a month :)
I am holding on for now and have infact closed some other positions to support this one.
Good luck!
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/
My sentiments on this one remain the same BUY. Nothing changes in OVTI but two things.
1. They have been accused of lying on the conference call by Herb Greenberg and the Jefferies analyst. 5.9 million revenue recognized from written off inventory. I clearly remember when asked about revenue contribution from written off inventory, the answer was "nothing substantial". To make things worse, there is no attempt from management to clear their name or come out and say something with regards to how they were misinterpreted. Herb Greenberg is a hedge fund owned scum in my opinion and has made some unbelievably bad calls such as shorting NFLX at 10 to cover at 4. I think they were all waiting for something to latch onto after earnings (short ratio is very high) and the 10Q gave them the chance and a good one to that.
2. Since management is too arrogant and never responds to Herb and the Jefferies guy, Herb takes a chance and adds the 5.9 million straight to the profits and cuts 10 cents off the earnings.
Sure they made a mistake and stock was punished. The stock has been kept down really well after all this trashing.
One interesting observation is that the Oct Puts volume is 10,404. Compare that with the 12.50 put volume 1077 or infact even the Sept calls / puts that expire on Friday. Traders often protect their positions by trading options. If they expect the stock price to be over 15 they would buy puts to protect themselves and ofcourse buy a lot of stock or begin covering. The option prices are the best today for these guys due to the low price.
If you believe the above conspiracy theory then the stock should be over 15 in less than a month :)
I am holding on for now and have infact closed some other positions to support this one.
Good luck!
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/
How does one determine the value of a stock?
A good friend asked me the eternal question of the stock markets "How does one determine the value of the stock?". Took me a day to think about the answer and since it's been qualified as the eternal question every investor asks, it doesn't have the perfect answer. Ofcourse, you can comment and add to this. I've split it up into points in order of priorities.
1.
1.1 Price to Earning: Valuation of the company. If it's a growth company then future P/E as well.
1.2 Growth: Over the last 1- 2 years (if it's a new technology company). Over the last 5 years for other groups.
2.
2.1 Balance sheet: Debt? Possible future dilution? Cash position? One time charges or benefits on balance sheet? Of course all these points need in depth analysis.
2.2 Insider holding. If insiders believe in the company, they will own more equity in the company.
2.3 Gross and Net margins. Are they increasing or decreasing?
2.4 Revenue distribution.
2.5 Price / Sales: Some companies turning the corner after years of poor performance can look expensive from every angle except this one and are sometimes the biggest gainers.
2.6 Personal experiences with the company's product. Don't discount your own instincts :)
3.
3.1 Revenue type: Diversity? Recurring revenue? How high is the risk of revenue being hit if one buyer or one product fails?
3.2 Old vs New age business sectors.
I think that's all for now. Ha!
1.
1.1 Price to Earning: Valuation of the company. If it's a growth company then future P/E as well.
1.2 Growth: Over the last 1- 2 years (if it's a new technology company). Over the last 5 years for other groups.
2.
2.1 Balance sheet: Debt? Possible future dilution? Cash position? One time charges or benefits on balance sheet? Of course all these points need in depth analysis.
2.2 Insider holding. If insiders believe in the company, they will own more equity in the company.
2.3 Gross and Net margins. Are they increasing or decreasing?
2.4 Revenue distribution.
2.5 Price / Sales: Some companies turning the corner after years of poor performance can look expensive from every angle except this one and are sometimes the biggest gainers.
2.6 Personal experiences with the company's product. Don't discount your own instincts :)
3.
3.1 Revenue type: Diversity? Recurring revenue? How high is the risk of revenue being hit if one buyer or one product fails?
3.2 Old vs New age business sectors.
I think that's all for now. Ha!
CKCM breaks out of technical levels
CKCM breaks out of the 17.2 - 18.65 range it has been trading for the last 5 weeks on strong volume to around 19.4. Upward trend will most likely be resumed. What a great accumulation time that was for everyone after market makers dropped it from 28 to 18 post earnings.
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
SMTX: Is it at least a momentum play?
SMTX (@3.12): SMTC corporation
I would like to make an important correction to my earlier post. Yahoo finance shows Market cap as 29.35 Mil but that is incorrect. Company's 10K shows company handed out shares last year for reducing debt. Simply put: 14.2 Million shares outstanding today and 5 mil more can be exercised as per 10Q (which might have already been dumped into the open market given the recent 300% rise).
For those still following SMTX here are some updates. SMTX closed between 3.48 and 3 in the last 11 consecutive trading sessions. There was a lot of profit taking on Aug 29 where stock closed higher with 4 MIL volume after a 50% jump on the previous day. SMTX broke through earlier support levels of 3.33 to the down side a few days back on low volume. Last 3 to 4 days stock kept falling on low volume.
For the last 2 days the stock is turning around. Yesterday the stock was at 2.9 levels all day and then closed higher at 3.02 on high volume in the final hour of trading.
Same story today: Stock trades between 2.9 and 2.95 all day and surges in the last hour to close at 3.12.
Below are the trading volumes for the last 5 days.
13-Sep-05 526,517
12-Sep-05 492,100
9-Sep-05 326,100
8-Sep-05 334,800
7-Sep-05 185,700
I think it's a good time to dip in tomorrow if you believe in momentum. I am in!
If you believe in value, it's a good place to be too - the only difference being that it is not the unbelievably undervalued company I initially thought it was.
I would like to make an important correction to my earlier post. Yahoo finance shows Market cap as 29.35 Mil but that is incorrect. Company's 10K shows company handed out shares last year for reducing debt. Simply put: 14.2 Million shares outstanding today and 5 mil more can be exercised as per 10Q (which might have already been dumped into the open market given the recent 300% rise).
For those still following SMTX here are some updates. SMTX closed between 3.48 and 3 in the last 11 consecutive trading sessions. There was a lot of profit taking on Aug 29 where stock closed higher with 4 MIL volume after a 50% jump on the previous day. SMTX broke through earlier support levels of 3.33 to the down side a few days back on low volume. Last 3 to 4 days stock kept falling on low volume.
For the last 2 days the stock is turning around. Yesterday the stock was at 2.9 levels all day and then closed higher at 3.02 on high volume in the final hour of trading.
Same story today: Stock trades between 2.9 and 2.95 all day and surges in the last hour to close at 3.12.
Below are the trading volumes for the last 5 days.
13-Sep-05 526,517
12-Sep-05 492,100
9-Sep-05 326,100
8-Sep-05 334,800
7-Sep-05 185,700
I think it's a good time to dip in tomorrow if you believe in momentum. I am in!
If you believe in value, it's a good place to be too - the only difference being that it is not the unbelievably undervalued company I initially thought it was.
Monday, September 12, 2005
Balance sheet questions
Date: Tue Sep 6, 2005 4:36 pm
Can anyone who understands balance sheets well answer if negativeretained earnings can be used to take tax breaks. Meaning, if a companyhas made losses in the past then is there a way of carrying forward thelosses for tax benefits?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=SMTX
Also, what is your understanding of Capital Surplus and Common Stock. Itried looking up the definitions on investopedia but they don'texmplain much.
Thanks,
Ahu
Can anyone who understands balance sheets well answer if negativeretained earnings can be used to take tax breaks. Meaning, if a companyhas made losses in the past then is there a way of carrying forward thelosses for tax benefits?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=SMTX
Also, what is your understanding of Capital Surplus and Common Stock. Itried looking up the definitions on investopedia but they don'texmplain much.
Thanks,
Ahu
Software stocks
Date: Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:16 am
Hi Guys,
Another set of stocks that might be hot in a bull market are software stocksin my opinion. Look out for CKCM for RFID related stuff. I am absolutelypositive on this one, also price fell to 18 bucks from 27. Will write morelater.
ITWO: You missed the big jump of 60% in one day. I have analyzed thefinancials of this company inside out and heard their conference call on oneof the weekends and it's a super buy based on that. BUT - I just don't knowif they can turn the company around on new growth (existing products). Thenew management did an unbelievable job on taking care of the debt. I waswaiting for a secondary and these guys got an excellent secondary to reducedebt.
CRM: Salesforce: Might do exceedingly well just based on their products.Do your own research on all these stocks.
Cheers,
Ahu
Hi Guys,
Another set of stocks that might be hot in a bull market are software stocksin my opinion. Look out for CKCM for RFID related stuff. I am absolutelypositive on this one, also price fell to 18 bucks from 27. Will write morelater.
ITWO: You missed the big jump of 60% in one day. I have analyzed thefinancials of this company inside out and heard their conference call on oneof the weekends and it's a super buy based on that. BUT - I just don't knowif they can turn the company around on new growth (existing products). Thenew management did an unbelievable job on taking care of the debt. I waswaiting for a secondary and these guys got an excellent secondary to reducedebt.
CRM: Salesforce: Might do exceedingly well just based on their products.Do your own research on all these stocks.
Cheers,
Ahu
RE: Upcoming FDA approvals for Bristol Myers ???
Date: Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:15 am
Hi
I personally don't understand BioTech very well so tend to shy away from itbut you are right and I have seen some amazing runs in Biotech. Bristol doeslook like a decent bet. Are the results going to be out on Sept 9?
I will surely investigate ECST more. Interesting chart for sure and might beone of the December run stocks.
About IPO's: You need to have half a million in your account in the investment arm of a firm that is involved with an IPO and that's when youget a small amount of shares for the IPO that they are underwriters of. ORIt needs to be a Google like offering where everyone can participate. Here'sa link where you can track IPO's.
http://www.hoovers.com/business-information/--pageid__10005--/global-ipoc-index.\xhtml
A decent strategy is to jump early into every IPO and take a pre-decidedpercentage gain and get out. Most IPO's holders file to sell some shares atthe open and so although there is new buying pressure, the shares arepressured on the sell side. Specially considering how healthy the IPO markethas been looking of late, I think it's a good plan to trade IPO's.
Baidu.com: After all the criticism that has been handed out to this company,I saw an interesting take on it on one of the message boards. It is the 5thor 6th most visited website on Earth. Given that the top few are the yahoo,google, msn's of the world the poster argued that this should be rated atsome point at the same levels. Google besides having good technology, has astrong brand name as well. So does Baidu and ofcourse they have an excellentunderstanding of Chinese government regulations, working in tandem withChina. Here is a government that wants a search engine to not displayresults for Freedom, Demcracy etc. Baidu is on top of this and is homegrown. Ofcourse as soon as you take valuation into consideration, everythingelse sounds minor. I did trade this stock a little recently.
Cheers,
Ahu
Hi
I personally don't understand BioTech very well so tend to shy away from itbut you are right and I have seen some amazing runs in Biotech. Bristol doeslook like a decent bet. Are the results going to be out on Sept 9?
I will surely investigate ECST more. Interesting chart for sure and might beone of the December run stocks.
About IPO's: You need to have half a million in your account in the investment arm of a firm that is involved with an IPO and that's when youget a small amount of shares for the IPO that they are underwriters of. ORIt needs to be a Google like offering where everyone can participate. Here'sa link where you can track IPO's.
http://www.hoovers.com/business-information/--pageid__10005--/global-ipoc-index.\xhtml
A decent strategy is to jump early into every IPO and take a pre-decidedpercentage gain and get out. Most IPO's holders file to sell some shares atthe open and so although there is new buying pressure, the shares arepressured on the sell side. Specially considering how healthy the IPO markethas been looking of late, I think it's a good plan to trade IPO's.
Baidu.com: After all the criticism that has been handed out to this company,I saw an interesting take on it on one of the message boards. It is the 5thor 6th most visited website on Earth. Given that the top few are the yahoo,google, msn's of the world the poster argued that this should be rated atsome point at the same levels. Google besides having good technology, has astrong brand name as well. So does Baidu and ofcourse they have an excellentunderstanding of Chinese government regulations, working in tandem withChina. Here is a government that wants a search engine to not displayresults for Freedom, Demcracy etc. Baidu is on top of this and is homegrown. Ofcourse as soon as you take valuation into consideration, everythingelse sounds minor. I did trade this stock a little recently.
Cheers,
Ahu
OVTI
Date: Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:54 am
Honestly I would not sell it till I find out more about what the futurerevenues over the next year look like. Then again if it touches 20, I wouldbe tempted to sell. I've just bought this morning at 14.80 and because of myusual trading patterns I might be in and out but 19 - 20, I think is totallyon.
Okay so regarding the open at 15.5 and it's down to 15.06 right now. I'veseen OVTI trade for 3 years and over the last 5 quarters they've opened upand then down after earnings. It tells you about a certain shorts frame ofmind when it comes to this stock as they always take it up high after hourson low volume and then short at high volume during market time. The samething is being tried this time and it's good to roll in shorts when you feelconfident of the news yourself.
Last 5 to 6 quarters revenues have been below a 100 MIl (couple of times in80's) and so the growth in the stock practically disappeared. Now for thefirst time the company has raised revenue targets 110 - 120 Mil. This is thecatalyst for me. - One important thing, company has almost always come intheir targeted range if not made more.
It's also exploring new markets as in the past it was stuck only to cellphones. Security cameras, car cameras and most notably 20% of all computersare expected to have these. Look for any deal struck here with a computermaker as a major win.
Honestly I would not sell it till I find out more about what the futurerevenues over the next year look like. Then again if it touches 20, I wouldbe tempted to sell. I've just bought this morning at 14.80 and because of myusual trading patterns I might be in and out but 19 - 20, I think is totallyon.
Okay so regarding the open at 15.5 and it's down to 15.06 right now. I'veseen OVTI trade for 3 years and over the last 5 quarters they've opened upand then down after earnings. It tells you about a certain shorts frame ofmind when it comes to this stock as they always take it up high after hourson low volume and then short at high volume during market time. The samething is being tried this time and it's good to roll in shorts when you feelconfident of the news yourself.
Last 5 to 6 quarters revenues have been below a 100 MIl (couple of times in80's) and so the growth in the stock practically disappeared. Now for thefirst time the company has raised revenue targets 110 - 120 Mil. This is thecatalyst for me. - One important thing, company has almost always come intheir targeted range if not made more.
It's also exploring new markets as in the past it was stuck only to cellphones. Security cameras, car cameras and most notably 20% of all computersare expected to have these. Look for any deal struck here with a computermaker as a major win.
SMTX: Strong buy
Date: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:21 am
SMTX: SMTC corp. $2.24
SMTC Corporation provides electronics manufacturing services to originalequipment manufacturers - Strong Buy
Market cap: 20.54 Mil.Revenues: 2002 - 569 MIl, 2003 - 306Mil, 2004 - 245 Mil. Okay so decliningrevenue and market has observed sometime of a failed business model which iswhy stock price is down from 100 to 2.24. Having said that, CEO has tried toturn the company around over the last few quarters. Revenue has reduced asthey are trying to cut the unprofitable businesses and keep the profitableones.
Last quarter revenue was 49.1 Mil loss 2.6 mil. This quarter revenue is 57mil and profits 0.3 mil. Revenue growth with increased profitability. Thisstatement is the catalyst that summarizes why I think it is a screaming buy.The company is finally turning around. This was a quarter of significantfinancial improvement across the board returning to profitability,sequential growth, cash generation, improved working capital and debtreduction.
They have 17.7 mil in debts. But the debt seems to be in control. The stockprice has doubled over days, so better look at the chart.
Don't want to hype this stock but I think this stock can be the growth stockof the year. Buying over the next few days might result in fluctuationssince this stock seems way overbought in the short term but again news wasexcellent and volume was heavy and it has pulled back a little.
Good luck!
SMTX: SMTC corp. $2.24
SMTC Corporation provides electronics manufacturing services to originalequipment manufacturers - Strong Buy
Market cap: 20.54 Mil.Revenues: 2002 - 569 MIl, 2003 - 306Mil, 2004 - 245 Mil. Okay so decliningrevenue and market has observed sometime of a failed business model which iswhy stock price is down from 100 to 2.24. Having said that, CEO has tried toturn the company around over the last few quarters. Revenue has reduced asthey are trying to cut the unprofitable businesses and keep the profitableones.
Last quarter revenue was 49.1 Mil loss 2.6 mil. This quarter revenue is 57mil and profits 0.3 mil. Revenue growth with increased profitability. Thisstatement is the catalyst that summarizes why I think it is a screaming buy.The company is finally turning around. This was a quarter of significantfinancial improvement across the board returning to profitability,sequential growth, cash generation, improved working capital and debtreduction.
They have 17.7 mil in debts. But the debt seems to be in control. The stockprice has doubled over days, so better look at the chart.
Don't want to hype this stock but I think this stock can be the growth stockof the year. Buying over the next few days might result in fluctuationssince this stock seems way overbought in the short term but again news wasexcellent and volume was heavy and it has pulled back a little.
Good luck!
reg CPK and ILSE
Date: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:33 pm
1. don't know much about energy stocks but I know people on CNBC are verybullish on CPK specially that mad cap Cramer. Chart looks pretty good.
2. Interlase ILSE looks okay but I think a long time back I remember readingabout competition between 3 companies on Laser surgery. Can't remember thenames.
There has been some insider selling, earnings growth is slowing a little andmargins are getting hurt too. Market cap is 531 mil for a company withfuture sales of 80 mil is kind of tight, considering there will be sustainedgrowth but the current growth of 2 mil per quarter at 15, 19, 21, 23 is nothigh enough to justify the price / sales ratio in my opinion.
A lot depends on patents if any, medical reports on Lasik (acceptability)and projected growth.
Good to have you on the group Vinay ;-)
1. don't know much about energy stocks but I know people on CNBC are verybullish on CPK specially that mad cap Cramer. Chart looks pretty good.
2. Interlase ILSE looks okay but I think a long time back I remember readingabout competition between 3 companies on Laser surgery. Can't remember thenames.
There has been some insider selling, earnings growth is slowing a little andmargins are getting hurt too. Market cap is 531 mil for a company withfuture sales of 80 mil is kind of tight, considering there will be sustainedgrowth but the current growth of 2 mil per quarter at 15, 19, 21, 23 is nothigh enough to justify the price / sales ratio in my opinion.
A lot depends on patents if any, medical reports on Lasik (acceptability)and projected growth.
Good to have you on the group Vinay ;-)
MCZ - Mad catz interactive
Date: Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:58 am
MCZ is at 0.8 today. Yahoo profile description quite accurate and so stating below.
"Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, marketing,and distribution of video game accessories. Its video game accessories aremarketed under the Mad Catz and GameShark brands. The company’s productsinclude video game controllers and accessories of various types, includingcontrol pads, game enhancement software, steering wheels, joysticks, memorycards, video cables, light guns, dance pads, and microphones"
Analysis:
- Market cap 44 Mil; revenue - 2003 - 92 Mil, 2004 - 102 Mil and 2005 - 113Mil. Alright, so good revenue per share.
- P/E is at 9.64 which is really low. Not sure might have registered a onetime gain which is why it looks too good for its price.
- Last quarter's revenue was light at 14 mil and a loss of 2 mil. So surethe dollar stock fell 20 cents.
- No guidance and next quarter you might not see a significant improvementBUT after that it has immense potentialImportant points to note:
- They are selling NFL controllers now at walmart etc.
- European sales went up form 1 mil to 3 mil this quarter.
- Supply accessories to everyone (Xbox, Playstation, gamecube) lots ofpotential for revenue growth now considering new versions are going to bereleased.
- have a deal with MSFT to show XBOX logo on Xbox related accessories(margins are therefore tight but CEO expects them to improve slightly)
Cons:
- Company has some debt
- 12 Mil short term but I am sure they have a planin place.
- Stock's range has been 0.45 to 1.83 and that is a bad sign for technicalreasons- tried doing a game and flopped. Stock fell because of bad reviews therebut I think that is a good reason to buy now that earnings are over andchances are that next gaming title could be slightly better.
I think this company has tremendous growth opportunities in the comingmonths. It's a low priced stock so it can double / triple easily. Ofcourse it can revisit 0.50 since there are no short term catalysts per say but I seriously doubt it will go much lower.
Good luck!
MCZ is at 0.8 today. Yahoo profile description quite accurate and so stating below.
"Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, marketing,and distribution of video game accessories. Its video game accessories aremarketed under the Mad Catz and GameShark brands. The company’s productsinclude video game controllers and accessories of various types, includingcontrol pads, game enhancement software, steering wheels, joysticks, memorycards, video cables, light guns, dance pads, and microphones"
Analysis:
- Market cap 44 Mil; revenue - 2003 - 92 Mil, 2004 - 102 Mil and 2005 - 113Mil. Alright, so good revenue per share.
- P/E is at 9.64 which is really low. Not sure might have registered a onetime gain which is why it looks too good for its price.
- Last quarter's revenue was light at 14 mil and a loss of 2 mil. So surethe dollar stock fell 20 cents.
- No guidance and next quarter you might not see a significant improvementBUT after that it has immense potentialImportant points to note:
- They are selling NFL controllers now at walmart etc.
- European sales went up form 1 mil to 3 mil this quarter.
- Supply accessories to everyone (Xbox, Playstation, gamecube) lots ofpotential for revenue growth now considering new versions are going to bereleased.
- have a deal with MSFT to show XBOX logo on Xbox related accessories(margins are therefore tight but CEO expects them to improve slightly)
Cons:
- Company has some debt
- 12 Mil short term but I am sure they have a planin place.
- Stock's range has been 0.45 to 1.83 and that is a bad sign for technicalreasons- tried doing a game and flopped. Stock fell because of bad reviews therebut I think that is a good reason to buy now that earnings are over andchances are that next gaming title could be slightly better.
I think this company has tremendous growth opportunities in the comingmonths. It's a low priced stock so it can double / triple easily. Ofcourse it can revisit 0.50 since there are no short term catalysts per say but I seriously doubt it will go much lower.
Good luck!
Re: CNVR and then BOOM, THQI
Date: Mon Aug 8, 2005 5:50 pm
CNVR at 9.48 and might go lower. Legg Mason just filed to sell it'sstake at 9.41. They bought their stake at 4 something and who doesn'tlike doubling in a month. I feel the stock definitely won't cross9.41 + 0.30 levels for a while. I am out of this now.
THQI: Strong revenues, weak earnings. Might drift into late 20's.
BOOM: has potential to visit late 20's and possibly lower. If you areshorting it, keep a tight stop at around 47. This stock has a lowfloat and is very volatile but excellent profit potential.
Finally, CKCM: Today down 5 bucks afterhours on earnings. Too bad Iam out of this one :)
CNVR at 9.48 and might go lower. Legg Mason just filed to sell it'sstake at 9.41. They bought their stake at 4 something and who doesn'tlike doubling in a month. I feel the stock definitely won't cross9.41 + 0.30 levels for a while. I am out of this now.
THQI: Strong revenues, weak earnings. Might drift into late 20's.
BOOM: has potential to visit late 20's and possibly lower. If you areshorting it, keep a tight stop at around 47. This stock has a lowfloat and is very volatile but excellent profit potential.
Finally, CKCM: Today down 5 bucks afterhours on earnings. Too bad Iam out of this one :)
BIDU IPO up nearly 3 times
Date: Fri Aug 5, 2005 11:30 am
Baidu.com, search engine for China with an IPO price today of $27 (increasedfrom 19 – 20) is at $147 right now in 3 hours of trading. If I can breakthis down, the company had 14 Mil revenue last year and has a market cap at147 bucks of 4.3 Billion. 4 million float only which is why the price iswhere it is at. Stock is not marginable, which means you can’t short it fornow.
And you thought March 2000 was crazy :)
Baidu.com, search engine for China with an IPO price today of $27 (increasedfrom 19 – 20) is at $147 right now in 3 hours of trading. If I can breakthis down, the company had 14 Mil revenue last year and has a market cap at147 bucks of 4.3 Billion. 4 million float only which is why the price iswhere it is at. Stock is not marginable, which means you can’t short it fornow.
And you thought March 2000 was crazy :)
BIDU IPO up nearly 3 times
Date: Fri Aug 5, 2005 9:24 am
Baidu IPO price was supposed to be 19 - 20 raised twice later to 27 and thestock is trading at 80 bucks. This is funnier than the 2000 days. You can'tshort the stock because security is not marginable yet.
Baidu IPO price was supposed to be 19 - 20 raised twice later to 27 and thestock is trading at 80 bucks. This is funnier than the 2000 days. You can'tshort the stock because security is not marginable yet.
Baidu IPO
Date: Thu Aug 4, 2005 10:52 am
Chinese search engine Baidu.com will debut on Nasdaq sometime late today.There is a lot of hype around it and so do your own DD.
Ticker: BIDU
Chinese search engine Baidu.com will debut on Nasdaq sometime late today.There is a lot of hype around it and so do your own DD.
Ticker: BIDU
CNVR and then BOOM, THQI
Date: Wed Aug 3, 2005 10:34 am
CNVR: Convera corp. Makes software used for data retrieval inside companyintranets. New initiative for indexing web pages. Not a big deal in myopinion, meaning other search companies do it as well. Less than a monthback Legg Mason invested at 4.5 bucks today price is 11.8. Recent hikeunjustified in my opinion and looks like a complete day traders play for the3 previous days.
At 11.8 company market cap is 460 Mil and annual revenues are 20 mil andcompany loses 2 to 3 mil each quarter. This in itself is a good enoughreason to short. This looks like a mamma.com kind of play and today therally has exhausted. You can short it but with tight stops at 12.8 atleastand if you are trading huge volume, then at 12.29 (intraday support levels).
Disclosure: Shorted at 12.29 and a little at 11.77.
Two more plays to short BOOM (52 wk high) and earnings tomorrow. 60 to 70%insider shares sold and THQI (52 week high), earnings after bell and 51%insider shares sold and most of them very recently. Do your own research onthese two.
CNVR: Convera corp. Makes software used for data retrieval inside companyintranets. New initiative for indexing web pages. Not a big deal in myopinion, meaning other search companies do it as well. Less than a monthback Legg Mason invested at 4.5 bucks today price is 11.8. Recent hikeunjustified in my opinion and looks like a complete day traders play for the3 previous days.
At 11.8 company market cap is 460 Mil and annual revenues are 20 mil andcompany loses 2 to 3 mil each quarter. This in itself is a good enoughreason to short. This looks like a mamma.com kind of play and today therally has exhausted. You can short it but with tight stops at 12.8 atleastand if you are trading huge volume, then at 12.29 (intraday support levels).
Disclosure: Shorted at 12.29 and a little at 11.77.
Two more plays to short BOOM (52 wk high) and earnings tomorrow. 60 to 70%insider shares sold and THQI (52 week high), earnings after bell and 51%insider shares sold and most of them very recently. Do your own research onthese two.
MFE and WBSN
Date: Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:36 pm
MFE
- McAfee, At 31.4. Recent climb after good earnings.
- Gone from 22 to 31.4 in less than 3 months.
- 83% of all insider shares sold. Talk about a managements faith in theirown company. Any sale of more than 20% is bearish
- Microsoft's OneTouch though very criticized, will give it a very seriouschallenge. Stock will tumble on the slightest news of any enterprisesadopting OneTouch and if a single success story comes out
- This company was at 2 bucks some 3 to 4 years ago and it can easilyrevisit that.
WBSN = 49.84
- Websense: provides employee Internet management software products thatenable organizations to analyze, report, and manage their employeescomputing resources, including Internet access, instant messaging (IM),peer-to-peer file sharing, network bandwidth, and desktop applications.
- Good growth etc, only screw up margins are 93%. This means the big guysare waiting to enter this market. Can't imagine MSFT or Symantec not comingout with a competing product if margins are this high.
- 82% insider shares sold.
- No announcement made yet but as soon as a competitor shows up this stockis going down.
- Careful though on the company being sold. Average probablility.
MFE
- McAfee, At 31.4. Recent climb after good earnings.
- Gone from 22 to 31.4 in less than 3 months.
- 83% of all insider shares sold. Talk about a managements faith in theirown company. Any sale of more than 20% is bearish
- Microsoft's OneTouch though very criticized, will give it a very seriouschallenge. Stock will tumble on the slightest news of any enterprisesadopting OneTouch and if a single success story comes out
- This company was at 2 bucks some 3 to 4 years ago and it can easilyrevisit that.
WBSN = 49.84
- Websense: provides employee Internet management software products thatenable organizations to analyze, report, and manage their employeescomputing resources, including Internet access, instant messaging (IM),peer-to-peer file sharing, network bandwidth, and desktop applications.
- Good growth etc, only screw up margins are 93%. This means the big guysare waiting to enter this market. Can't imagine MSFT or Symantec not comingout with a competing product if margins are this high.
- 82% insider shares sold.
- No announcement made yet but as soon as a competitor shows up this stockis going down.
- Careful though on the company being sold. Average probablility.
GOOG Short
Date: Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:44 am
Great company but needs to consolidate on a above average earnings result.
- Growth not crazy per the last quarter.
- Stock's chart has shown some resistance.
- Might revisit 250 - 260 over the summer.
- GOOG expects weak summer.
- Might see some insider selling if stock is at 300 as a year is over inAugust since IPO
- Weak summer months over allShorting in the early 300's
Cheers,
Ahu
Great company but needs to consolidate on a above average earnings result.
- Growth not crazy per the last quarter.
- Stock's chart has shown some resistance.
- Might revisit 250 - 260 over the summer.
- GOOG expects weak summer.
- Might see some insider selling if stock is at 300 as a year is over inAugust since IPO
- Weak summer months over allShorting in the early 300's
Cheers,
Ahu
RE: [stock_sharks] What is everybodies opinion on GOOG
Date: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:55 pm
Interesting you bring it up today as they just declared earnings.
Earnings came in under Highest expectations of 1.21 at 1.19 BUT that's causethey expensed options. Earning without options expensing is 1.29 - 1.35.
I'd say Hold at best. They should have beaten by a ridiculous amount and itwas always going to be tough.
Interesting you bring it up today as they just declared earnings.
Earnings came in under Highest expectations of 1.21 at 1.19 BUT that's causethey expensed options. Earning without options expensing is 1.29 - 1.35.
I'd say Hold at best. They should have beaten by a ridiculous amount and itwas always going to be tough.
Negative on Home builders
Date: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:14 am
Oh I'd like to add I am very negative on home builders. KB homes, tollbrothers all of them. Lot of insider selling in home builders after stellarearnings which is one of my favorite sell signs.
Oh I'd like to add I am very negative on home builders. KB homes, tollbrothers all of them. Lot of insider selling in home builders after stellarearnings which is one of my favorite sell signs.
CKCM again :)
Date: Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:03 am
I know that not a lot of folks are into shorting but might make interestingreading.
Okay let me start off with CKCM has good potential and is a bad long termshort. Short only short term. This stock has run from 9's to around 22.5 asof right now in less than 2 months. I can talk about it endlessly but forthose who are following it, 3 points I'd like to bring up.
1. They have 11 mil in cash only. CKCM by itself is a very profitable entitybut have rapidly acquired about 4 to 5 companies rapidly and might acquireone more soon. Earlier, my concern was price to sales was very high althoughprice to earnings was in control. The acquisitions will help their price /sales which is good for the company. BUT - consolidation will definitelyaffect their profitability. Besides, what does any growing company do -increase hiring, marketing expenses. End result: lower profitability insight.
2. Low cash and so to facilitate any acquisitions, price of stock (gone upreally high recently) can be used for a secondary, as outstanding shares arequite low. This could be the reason they are keeping up the price assecondary investors want an average stock price over 3 months or so, kind ofdeal. Remember how secondary offering guys got burnt with mamma.com forfinancing 15 mil at 11 bucks when stock now is at 3 bucks. Why cause theywent in with current price rather that long term price. Ouch! Any secondarywill bring down stock due to dilution.
3. Been following the moving averages closely and though I don't believe inany one of them making a difference but more so the overall effect thatmakes a difference.
About 10 days back 10, 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages had their slopesup. About 5 or 6 days 10 day slope became negative. Then there was the rallyin Nasdaq and stock went up some 9% over 2 days. Next, serious distributionat resistance 24 +/- 0.7 and stock is again back down.Today, the 10 day slope is positive but the 21 day slope is negative. 10 dayslope is at 22.45. If stock closes below 22.45 that will make 10 and 20 dayslope negative. That in my opinion is a steady indicator of a stock goingdown.
Ofcourse need I say this is one of the most manipulated stocks you can see.Today it opened at 24, a buck higher than it's yesterday close. Tactic: Openstock very high on a day where stocks are supposed to go high due to theearnings hype, ON VERY LOW VOLUME. When it opens at 24, you've triggered alot of stops and then you short it on high volume. Stock visited 21.97 afteropening at 24.
Alright, if you short this, remember: Buy to cover stop at 24.8. All hellmight break loose if that happens cause stock has above average supportbetween 21 and 24. If it falls below 20.80 and with a little help from theNasdaq, stock will have next support level at 19.5, 18, 16.
Good luck All!
I know that not a lot of folks are into shorting but might make interestingreading.
Okay let me start off with CKCM has good potential and is a bad long termshort. Short only short term. This stock has run from 9's to around 22.5 asof right now in less than 2 months. I can talk about it endlessly but forthose who are following it, 3 points I'd like to bring up.
1. They have 11 mil in cash only. CKCM by itself is a very profitable entitybut have rapidly acquired about 4 to 5 companies rapidly and might acquireone more soon. Earlier, my concern was price to sales was very high althoughprice to earnings was in control. The acquisitions will help their price /sales which is good for the company. BUT - consolidation will definitelyaffect their profitability. Besides, what does any growing company do -increase hiring, marketing expenses. End result: lower profitability insight.
2. Low cash and so to facilitate any acquisitions, price of stock (gone upreally high recently) can be used for a secondary, as outstanding shares arequite low. This could be the reason they are keeping up the price assecondary investors want an average stock price over 3 months or so, kind ofdeal. Remember how secondary offering guys got burnt with mamma.com forfinancing 15 mil at 11 bucks when stock now is at 3 bucks. Why cause theywent in with current price rather that long term price. Ouch! Any secondarywill bring down stock due to dilution.
3. Been following the moving averages closely and though I don't believe inany one of them making a difference but more so the overall effect thatmakes a difference.
About 10 days back 10, 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages had their slopesup. About 5 or 6 days 10 day slope became negative. Then there was the rallyin Nasdaq and stock went up some 9% over 2 days. Next, serious distributionat resistance 24 +/- 0.7 and stock is again back down.Today, the 10 day slope is positive but the 21 day slope is negative. 10 dayslope is at 22.45. If stock closes below 22.45 that will make 10 and 20 dayslope negative. That in my opinion is a steady indicator of a stock goingdown.
Ofcourse need I say this is one of the most manipulated stocks you can see.Today it opened at 24, a buck higher than it's yesterday close. Tactic: Openstock very high on a day where stocks are supposed to go high due to theearnings hype, ON VERY LOW VOLUME. When it opens at 24, you've triggered alot of stops and then you short it on high volume. Stock visited 21.97 afteropening at 24.
Alright, if you short this, remember: Buy to cover stop at 24.8. All hellmight break loose if that happens cause stock has above average supportbetween 21 and 24. If it falls below 20.80 and with a little help from theNasdaq, stock will have next support level at 19.5, 18, 16.
Good luck All!
Over all Distribution
Date: Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:34 am
Thanks for all the responses on PALM and RIMM. Conclusion: I plan to stayaway for a while because anyway RIMM is around 72 and down 8 bucks fromrecent highs.
Over all Markets:I have been following the markets closely over the last 3 days. I think itcertainly has some sustaining power at these levels or 20 points less ormore (nasdaq) but over all from several stocks that I follow and from theway the markets are trading, I see a lot of distribution. Stocks trade at acertain price and then there is a sharp drop on volume. Again it goes up tothe same levels on seemingly small retail buying and then same story again.Before 2 or 3 days indexes were in the climbing mode but on thin volumewhich is not a good sign.
Ofcourse the big contrarian indicator is CNBC where everyone is extremelypositive and gaga.Having said that, the economic news is good (not excellent). Retail buyingis good for back to school season. Earnings are good so far. BUT ALL THAT ISPRICED IN for the last 3 weeks or so and it will be a tough act to keep upwith earnings and economic news over the next 2 months, the summer months.Summer will be slow in my opinion.
It works perfectly well, keep up the hype for now and let people buy themarkets. Gives time for shorts to come in and load for a 2 to 3 week periodand then when there is little market moving news, market goes down -institutions buy a little (very inactive during summer) and shorts cover fora few percentage points gain.
Summary: 1 or 2 weeks more of these levels max. In fact personally I thinkit's already there. August / September it might revisit 1900 - 2000 (thoughfor a short time) and will end the year well.
Thanks for all the responses on PALM and RIMM. Conclusion: I plan to stayaway for a while because anyway RIMM is around 72 and down 8 bucks fromrecent highs.
Over all Markets:I have been following the markets closely over the last 3 days. I think itcertainly has some sustaining power at these levels or 20 points less ormore (nasdaq) but over all from several stocks that I follow and from theway the markets are trading, I see a lot of distribution. Stocks trade at acertain price and then there is a sharp drop on volume. Again it goes up tothe same levels on seemingly small retail buying and then same story again.Before 2 or 3 days indexes were in the climbing mode but on thin volumewhich is not a good sign.
Ofcourse the big contrarian indicator is CNBC where everyone is extremelypositive and gaga.Having said that, the economic news is good (not excellent). Retail buyingis good for back to school season. Earnings are good so far. BUT ALL THAT ISPRICED IN for the last 3 weeks or so and it will be a tough act to keep upwith earnings and economic news over the next 2 months, the summer months.Summer will be slow in my opinion.
It works perfectly well, keep up the hype for now and let people buy themarkets. Gives time for shorts to come in and load for a 2 to 3 week periodand then when there is little market moving news, market goes down -institutions buy a little (very inactive during summer) and shorts cover fora few percentage points gain.
Summary: 1 or 2 weeks more of these levels max. In fact personally I thinkit's already there. August / September it might revisit 1900 - 2000 (thoughfor a short time) and will end the year well.
PLMO vs RIMM
Date: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:43 pm
Does anyone use a PalmOne instead of a blackberry?
I am trying to get some feedback on the latest versions of PalmOne andBlackberry. I think a decent hedging strategy might be to go long onone and short on the other. Not that the market for handhelds overallwill not improve (it certainly will) but RIMM is extremely over-pricedand so I am tempted to short it and go long on PLMO.
Ofcourse any comparisons between the two products of folks who are using it will be very helpful.
Does anyone use a PalmOne instead of a blackberry?
I am trying to get some feedback on the latest versions of PalmOne andBlackberry. I think a decent hedging strategy might be to go long onone and short on the other. Not that the market for handhelds overallwill not improve (it certainly will) but RIMM is extremely over-pricedand so I am tempted to short it and go long on PLMO.
Ofcourse any comparisons between the two products of folks who are using it will be very helpful.
Re: [stock_sharks] Digest Number 62
Date: Wed Jun 22, 2005 12:29 pm
DWA plan's 2 movies every 12 months as opposed to pixar 1 movie in 18months. The movies are quite profitable so even if they are not as big asPixar's they make good money.
High Short ratio can be a good thing too if the company comes out with goodnews. Shorts will be scrambling to cover and drive the price updramatically. I am in it more for the fundamentals and the potential andpeople's buying experiences. Doesn't take much to become profitable whenrevenues are in 100's of mil and loss is 3 to 4 mil.
Playing EVOL today
Cheers,
Ahu
DWA plan's 2 movies every 12 months as opposed to pixar 1 movie in 18months. The movies are quite profitable so even if they are not as big asPixar's they make good money.
High Short ratio can be a good thing too if the company comes out with goodnews. Shorts will be scrambling to cover and drive the price updramatically. I am in it more for the fundamentals and the potential andpeople's buying experiences. Doesn't take much to become profitable whenrevenues are in 100's of mil and loss is 3 to 4 mil.
Playing EVOL today
Cheers,
Ahu
Regarding OVTI earnings tomorrow
Date: Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:11 pm
Posting two links.
Take your pick.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050620/986d69477c284a9ba06ff0c9dc2ffc32.html?.v=1downgrade by Jefferies.
Defence by Morgan Keegan but haven't seen a news release.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=1600905312&tid=ovti&sid=160\0905312&mid=202276
read both messages on the yahoo board.
Stock went down after Jefferies note. I am considering buying tomorrowbefore earnings, if EVOL is not in play.
Regards,
Ahu
Posting two links.
Take your pick.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050620/986d69477c284a9ba06ff0c9dc2ffc32.html?.v=1downgrade by Jefferies.
Defence by Morgan Keegan but haven't seen a news release.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=1600905312&tid=ovti&sid=160\0905312&mid=202276
read both messages on the yahoo board.
Stock went down after Jefferies note. I am considering buying tomorrowbefore earnings, if EVOL is not in play.
Regards,
Ahu
Thinking Nano is the future?
Date: Tue Jun 21, 2005 5:43 pm
Hi,
Most of you have heard about how hot nano technology is some 2 years back.In came all the momentum investors and bid the stock prices up and then tookprofits and left the small guys hanging as usual. The trick is to buy intocompanies when there is no hype (duh!). Meaning you don't see them on newsetc.
Is nano here to stay. I had gone for a nano technology conference some 1.5yrs back at Stanford to hear what Vinod Khosla had to say. He shared somevery good insights on where he sees nano sometime from now and what areasaer most likely to be affected first by Nano. i.e Memory, nano measurementdevices, semiconductors (partly), some basic materials.
Two recommendations today for investors is VECO and FEIC. Both are in thebusiness of making equipment that can be used for measurements at the nanolevel. Meaning both companies products will be used by all other nanocompanies. Nice place to be.Also, keep your eyes open for the IPO of Nanosys. Go to their website toread about it.
Cheers,
Ahu
Hi,
Most of you have heard about how hot nano technology is some 2 years back.In came all the momentum investors and bid the stock prices up and then tookprofits and left the small guys hanging as usual. The trick is to buy intocompanies when there is no hype (duh!). Meaning you don't see them on newsetc.
Is nano here to stay. I had gone for a nano technology conference some 1.5yrs back at Stanford to hear what Vinod Khosla had to say. He shared somevery good insights on where he sees nano sometime from now and what areasaer most likely to be affected first by Nano. i.e Memory, nano measurementdevices, semiconductors (partly), some basic materials.
Two recommendations today for investors is VECO and FEIC. Both are in thebusiness of making equipment that can be used for measurements at the nanolevel. Meaning both companies products will be used by all other nanocompanies. Nice place to be.Also, keep your eyes open for the IPO of Nanosys. Go to their website toread about it.
Cheers,
Ahu
Pre-market manipulation
Date: Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:14 pm
Stock: CKCM
Below you can see the before market trading. The MM's bought over all3900 stocks before market opens and raised the price to 25.37 beforemarket open, a good 62 cents higher than what it closed at. As soonas market opened ofcourse a few stops got triggered. If you look atthe volume chart, just 3900 stocks ensure approximately 30,000 sharesbeing traded above 25 and another 50,000 shares being traded above24.75 and 25.
Why it works on this stock. Low volume: took 3900 stocks to raise theprice of the stock by 2.2%. Also, look at the 5 day and the month'schart, lots of shorts must have gotten into the stock over the lastfew days and they want to play it safe so they'll put stops atvarious points which get triggered.
Careful where you place those stops.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=afterhours&mode=frameset&symbol=CKCM&symbol=OVTI&selected=CKCM
&exchange=19&bid=24.06&ask=24.54&pageno=&site= http://quotes.nasdaq.com&dynsite=http://dynamic.nasdaq.com&mktcls=&mkttype=pre&sit/
esubtype=& LogoPath=http%3A%2F%2Fcontent.nasdaq.com%2Flogos%2FCKCM.GIF&CompanyName=Click%20 Commerce,%20Inc.&Market=&MktStatus=Jun.%2016,%202005%26nbsp%3BMarket%20Close%3A% 26nbsp%3B$%26nbsp%3B24.14
Stock: CKCM
Below you can see the before market trading. The MM's bought over all3900 stocks before market opens and raised the price to 25.37 beforemarket open, a good 62 cents higher than what it closed at. As soonas market opened ofcourse a few stops got triggered. If you look atthe volume chart, just 3900 stocks ensure approximately 30,000 sharesbeing traded above 25 and another 50,000 shares being traded above24.75 and 25.
Why it works on this stock. Low volume: took 3900 stocks to raise theprice of the stock by 2.2%. Also, look at the 5 day and the month'schart, lots of shorts must have gotten into the stock over the lastfew days and they want to play it safe so they'll put stops atvarious points which get triggered.
Careful where you place those stops.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=afterhours&mode=frameset&symbol=CKCM&symbol=OVTI&selected=CKCM
&exchange=19&bid=24.06&ask=24.54&pageno=&site= http://quotes.nasdaq.com&dynsite=http://dynamic.nasdaq.com&mktcls=&mkttype=pre&sit/
esubtype=& LogoPath=http%3A%2F%2Fcontent.nasdaq.com%2Flogos%2FCKCM.GIF&CompanyName=Click%20 Commerce,%20Inc.&Market=&MktStatus=Jun.%2016,%202005%26nbsp%3BMarket%20Close%3A% 26nbsp%3B$%26nbsp%3B24.14
short's and longs
Date: Mon Jun 6, 2005 11:54 am
CKCM has resistance at these levels. If you decide to short it make sure youplace a cover order at atleast a buck lower. Stock has tendency to swingduring a session. It's at 22.17 right now. Make sure you get out of CKCMthough before it's too late. This stock is definitely going up in my opinionin anothe 6 months. It's just flying too high for now and has recentacquisitions that they will need to consolidate and show on their accountingbooks.
CRM has a lot of downward pressure too but is already down from recenthighs. If the market rallies over today and tomorrow, look to short ataround 20.85.
AKS is weak. I think it's due too rotation of money out of steel and so isoversold in my opinion. You can go long on this one and the hedge's on ckcmand crm work perfectly for a potential balance for the summer.If you do believe that the fed will indicate that he will stop raising ratesanytime soon, it means the market will potentially rally and is probably theonly new bullish factor for the summer and what might save us from thesummer doldrums (remember last summer, phew). Market is overall in goodshape but weak months without growth will be just that, weak months.
Have a great week at work and in the markets all ;-)
CKCM has resistance at these levels. If you decide to short it make sure youplace a cover order at atleast a buck lower. Stock has tendency to swingduring a session. It's at 22.17 right now. Make sure you get out of CKCMthough before it's too late. This stock is definitely going up in my opinionin anothe 6 months. It's just flying too high for now and has recentacquisitions that they will need to consolidate and show on their accountingbooks.
CRM has a lot of downward pressure too but is already down from recenthighs. If the market rallies over today and tomorrow, look to short ataround 20.85.
AKS is weak. I think it's due too rotation of money out of steel and so isoversold in my opinion. You can go long on this one and the hedge's on ckcmand crm work perfectly for a potential balance for the summer.If you do believe that the fed will indicate that he will stop raising ratesanytime soon, it means the market will potentially rally and is probably theonly new bullish factor for the summer and what might save us from thesummer doldrums (remember last summer, phew). Market is overall in goodshape but weak months without growth will be just that, weak months.
Have a great week at work and in the markets all ;-)
Re: fc
Wed May 25, 2005 8:59 am
Hi,
I am a little unsure of this company's movements myself and so did someresearch. My take on these kind of stocks is that everytime a stock such asthis becomes profitable like this one did last quarter, it can turn cornersquickly. Why these kind of stocks .... this company has revenue of 275 Mil.thats a lot given the Market cap is 129 MIL today. cash is 46 Mil (hell of alot of cash) debt 1.5 MIl. To give you a comparative analysis of differencein revenues, look at Click Commerce, CKCM the stock i recommended ashort.... market cap 240 Mil, cash 11 mil and revenue approximately 30 Mil.This one is profitable, different segment and all that but still thedifference is just dramatic. A lot of times revenue can't be directly usedin the equation e.g. in the case of a reseller (goods are not mine but I ama channel and so margins is all that matters.... study GTSI for thisexample). I haven't studied FC enough but doesn't look like it's doinganything like that.
Another thing, with outstanding shares this low any profitability willincrease the EPS dramatically. e.g. 19 cents profitability last quarter ascompared to 10 cents loss. Seven quarters of improving operational cost.Margins improved slightly from 56 to 60%.
Insider trading: Folks, one thing I have observed nearly always, Insiderscan sell at may be not the perfect times. That is, stock still may havepotential but almost all huge quantity buys, meaning not the pseudo smallbuys to fool investors, are almost always indicative of the stock'sperformance to improve. I remember the example of CarMax KMX where at 18, 6insiders bought (July - August 2004) and earnings had just missed, stock hadtaken a dramatic beating etc and I was completely flummoxed by these hugebuys. Stock went to I think 35 in less than 6 months and is trading at 26now.
J: How did you find this stock? Stock Screener? I have noticed almostinvariably that stocks that are expected to go up after the initial runupalmost never make any noise. Meaning, you won't see much news and you won'tsee it on CNBC until the guys who wanted to buy in, got in.Stock had quite a climb so I'll be skeptical to buy in but that is always abad reason :)I followed CKCM from 2.5, wanted to buy in and waited for a good entry pointand finally it is at 22 bucks today. So you can play safe and you should butyou never know what you'll miss out :)
Cheers,
Ahu
Hi,
I am a little unsure of this company's movements myself and so did someresearch. My take on these kind of stocks is that everytime a stock such asthis becomes profitable like this one did last quarter, it can turn cornersquickly. Why these kind of stocks .... this company has revenue of 275 Mil.thats a lot given the Market cap is 129 MIL today. cash is 46 Mil (hell of alot of cash) debt 1.5 MIl. To give you a comparative analysis of differencein revenues, look at Click Commerce, CKCM the stock i recommended ashort.... market cap 240 Mil, cash 11 mil and revenue approximately 30 Mil.This one is profitable, different segment and all that but still thedifference is just dramatic. A lot of times revenue can't be directly usedin the equation e.g. in the case of a reseller (goods are not mine but I ama channel and so margins is all that matters.... study GTSI for thisexample). I haven't studied FC enough but doesn't look like it's doinganything like that.
Another thing, with outstanding shares this low any profitability willincrease the EPS dramatically. e.g. 19 cents profitability last quarter ascompared to 10 cents loss. Seven quarters of improving operational cost.Margins improved slightly from 56 to 60%.
Insider trading: Folks, one thing I have observed nearly always, Insiderscan sell at may be not the perfect times. That is, stock still may havepotential but almost all huge quantity buys, meaning not the pseudo smallbuys to fool investors, are almost always indicative of the stock'sperformance to improve. I remember the example of CarMax KMX where at 18, 6insiders bought (July - August 2004) and earnings had just missed, stock hadtaken a dramatic beating etc and I was completely flummoxed by these hugebuys. Stock went to I think 35 in less than 6 months and is trading at 26now.
J: How did you find this stock? Stock Screener? I have noticed almostinvariably that stocks that are expected to go up after the initial runupalmost never make any noise. Meaning, you won't see much news and you won'tsee it on CNBC until the guys who wanted to buy in, got in.Stock had quite a climb so I'll be skeptical to buy in but that is always abad reason :)I followed CKCM from 2.5, wanted to buy in and waited for a good entry pointand finally it is at 22 bucks today. So you can play safe and you should butyou never know what you'll miss out :)
Cheers,
Ahu
Sunday, September 11, 2005
Time to balance longs with Shorts!!
Date: Fri May 20, 2005 3:14 pm
A fairly good strategy means balancing your long trades by some shorttrades. I know most of you hold stocks but have always traded stocks on thelong side. Try shorting stocks to minimize your risk.
Nasdaq has moved very quickly to 2040 which means there might notnecessarily be enough support. 2 possibilities highly likely.
1. Market tanks to 1980's levels cause too much gain in barely any time andthe market over the last 2 years has been extremely cyclical. If it tanks,then your good with your short anyway.
2. Market stabilizes at these levels. Go in and out on the short side whileit stabilizes.Or better put, you can easily time some shorting until themarket stabilizes at these levels. Quick in and out moves means yourinvestment in shorting is higher for good profits. Make sure when you shortyou place limit buy to cover orders to minimize losses.
So there, you have balanced your risk. If market goes higher, your longswill keep you happy. If it goes lower, your first short will come intoeffect and you will actually make money instead of just waiting for yourlongs to go higher. Shorting a stock is not like going long on it. Youshould cover your short in just a few days and make sure you put stop lossesto minimize losses.
One important thing to not about shorting is, that make sure you don't getcaught in a momentum ride. If a stock is really climbing and you think it'sbullshit... give the market the benefit of doubt. Do not fight the market :)
Monday there is no Economic news and so no real factor to make the marketmove in either direction.Some stocks to look at for shorting at current prices:
CKCM, too far too fast
CRM: technicals, 1 yr high and highly valued
IACI: has been steady at 20 - 22 but is at 24 now.
VRTS and SYMC may be if it climbs another 50 cents
A fairly good strategy means balancing your long trades by some shorttrades. I know most of you hold stocks but have always traded stocks on thelong side. Try shorting stocks to minimize your risk.
Nasdaq has moved very quickly to 2040 which means there might notnecessarily be enough support. 2 possibilities highly likely.
1. Market tanks to 1980's levels cause too much gain in barely any time andthe market over the last 2 years has been extremely cyclical. If it tanks,then your good with your short anyway.
2. Market stabilizes at these levels. Go in and out on the short side whileit stabilizes.Or better put, you can easily time some shorting until themarket stabilizes at these levels. Quick in and out moves means yourinvestment in shorting is higher for good profits. Make sure when you shortyou place limit buy to cover orders to minimize losses.
So there, you have balanced your risk. If market goes higher, your longswill keep you happy. If it goes lower, your first short will come intoeffect and you will actually make money instead of just waiting for yourlongs to go higher. Shorting a stock is not like going long on it. Youshould cover your short in just a few days and make sure you put stop lossesto minimize losses.
One important thing to not about shorting is, that make sure you don't getcaught in a momentum ride. If a stock is really climbing and you think it'sbullshit... give the market the benefit of doubt. Do not fight the market :)
Monday there is no Economic news and so no real factor to make the marketmove in either direction.Some stocks to look at for shorting at current prices:
CKCM, too far too fast
CRM: technicals, 1 yr high and highly valued
IACI: has been steady at 20 - 22 but is at 24 now.
VRTS and SYMC may be if it climbs another 50 cents
OVTI: Institutional ownership up
Date: Mon May 16, 2005 5:58 pm
All,Just wanted to bring up the fact that the institutional ownership has shotup from 68% to 83% in OVTI.
Keep in mind insiders sold at 15 on March 31st what seemed like a planneddate sale, but you never really know.I am long on this one.
Regards,
Ahu
All,Just wanted to bring up the fact that the institutional ownership has shotup from 68% to 83% in OVTI.
Keep in mind insiders sold at 15 on March 31st what seemed like a planneddate sale, but you never really know.I am long on this one.
Regards,
Ahu
Don't make your shares available for shorting!!
Date: Mon May 16, 2005 11:53 am
Call your broker and ask him to make a permanent change to your accountthat does not let any shares you own be available for shorting. It's apermanent change in your account. Apparently, when we signed the marginagreement we had to check a certain box which we didn't.
I asked if I would be adversely affected in anyway and the answer wasno. Takes 24 to 48 hrs to make the changes but mine should be in now.Believe me, in companies like OSTK which has a very small floatavailable for trading this will really make. Unfortunately, most peoplethink their holding is too small and won't make a difference anyway.
This is a one time change and will help every small / medium cap stockthat you own.
Call your broker and ask him to make a permanent change to your accountthat does not let any shares you own be available for shorting. It's apermanent change in your account. Apparently, when we signed the marginagreement we had to check a certain box which we didn't.
I asked if I would be adversely affected in anyway and the answer wasno. Takes 24 to 48 hrs to make the changes but mine should be in now.Believe me, in companies like OSTK which has a very small floatavailable for trading this will really make. Unfortunately, most peoplethink their holding is too small and won't make a difference anyway.
This is a one time change and will help every small / medium cap stockthat you own.
Follow AKS
Date: Thu May 12, 2005 11:17 am
Its a steel stock.
Has really come down and the entire steel group is weakfor the last 3 months. Look at its chart. Steel is here to stay causedeveloping countries will need a lot of steel.Keep a buy at around 6.3 bucks. More research on this later.
Sorry, last email for the day.
Its a steel stock.
Has really come down and the entire steel group is weakfor the last 3 months. Look at its chart. Steel is here to stay causedeveloping countries will need a lot of steel.Keep a buy at around 6.3 bucks. More research on this later.
Sorry, last email for the day.
Ebay
Date: Mon Apr 25, 2005 10:18 am
This is a study of eBay.
EBAY: 5 years of growth, finally slowing down a little. Paypal business grewsome 40 - 50% (this is a potential growth story that some folks seem tothink might surpass the retailing business that eBay has).
1. Most people don't know but 40% of eBay business is done through the backdoors. That means power buyers and power sellers who don't use the eBay sitethat you and I see. The big guys need big networks and unless an Overstocklike etailer becomes very big, its tough for the big guys to move. So theresafe business.... built slowly and steadily for 5 to 6 years.
2. They have bought similar companies in every country with potential. Ofcourse India, China etc. Imagine 2 billion people buying and selling stuff.AND WHY WON"T IT HAPPEN? Of course it will, broadband penetration, moresecure options of transfering goods etc. Take a look at the growth in the PCand Cell phone markets (still a lot left, ask India where cell phone usageis slated to grow for the next 5 to 10 yrs)
REMEMBER THE PC growth story. The cell phone growth story.... just whatcompanies can compete with eBay right now. And there in lies the growthstory...... Think: Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson etc they all came up withcellphones..... starting covering huge areas under their network and gotcompetitive. The catch is YOU NEED AN AUDIENCE for being an eBay competitiorand the tools to cater to C2C.... Oh but the audience is all on eBay and soare the most efficient tools. They have a huge head start.
3. The one argument out there is that: Internet audiences have very lowloyalty.... get something cheaper somewhere else buy it from there. Period!Cheaper deals are offered to your biggest customers (unless you have aspeciality retail store like Overstock that works on a different model andwhich is why I like them) and so net net, the big guys win. Also, take incase Netflix vs Blockbuster online. The verdict is still out there but letme say this, Netflix still has big subscriber growth although BBI ischeaper. Case in point for loyalty (can't directly compare this fight withour real story) but comparable.
4. Valuation: Phew.... has always been highly valued but the stock price ishalved in 4 months. Why? cause although it beat earnings once and missed bya penny once the growth engine finally stop beating by ridiculous numbers.Yes saturation and slow growth in the US markets. Future P/E 31.
5. Too much negativity on CNBC on the stock... one of my favorite buysignals. Maximum negativity helps a company when the buy guys accumulate.Average investor looks at eBay for 5 days when it first hits this low andsays I want to buy it. Oh but wait there are all these bearish articles oneBay right now and so may be I should wait. All market makers have to do iskeep it low for those 5 days. Then people get used to the new price of eBayand so its no longer a great buy. This is the perfect time for MM's to accumulate at a lower price for now what will seem like as an extendedperiod of time.
If you believe in the India, China growth story buy regardless. If you wantto be technical .... decent buy anyway. If you want to be very careful,accumulate little now and a little in the 25 to 30's. If eBay has anothermiss this year we might visit the twenties (considering the Nasdaq is atthese levels). If you believe in the bigger growth story, then this is theyear to buy and then the next round of growth Paypal, India, China and theother countries they have presence.
Have a great day and week ;-)
This is a study of eBay.
EBAY: 5 years of growth, finally slowing down a little. Paypal business grewsome 40 - 50% (this is a potential growth story that some folks seem tothink might surpass the retailing business that eBay has).
1. Most people don't know but 40% of eBay business is done through the backdoors. That means power buyers and power sellers who don't use the eBay sitethat you and I see. The big guys need big networks and unless an Overstocklike etailer becomes very big, its tough for the big guys to move. So theresafe business.... built slowly and steadily for 5 to 6 years.
2. They have bought similar companies in every country with potential. Ofcourse India, China etc. Imagine 2 billion people buying and selling stuff.AND WHY WON"T IT HAPPEN? Of course it will, broadband penetration, moresecure options of transfering goods etc. Take a look at the growth in the PCand Cell phone markets (still a lot left, ask India where cell phone usageis slated to grow for the next 5 to 10 yrs)
REMEMBER THE PC growth story. The cell phone growth story.... just whatcompanies can compete with eBay right now. And there in lies the growthstory...... Think: Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson etc they all came up withcellphones..... starting covering huge areas under their network and gotcompetitive. The catch is YOU NEED AN AUDIENCE for being an eBay competitiorand the tools to cater to C2C.... Oh but the audience is all on eBay and soare the most efficient tools. They have a huge head start.
3. The one argument out there is that: Internet audiences have very lowloyalty.... get something cheaper somewhere else buy it from there. Period!Cheaper deals are offered to your biggest customers (unless you have aspeciality retail store like Overstock that works on a different model andwhich is why I like them) and so net net, the big guys win. Also, take incase Netflix vs Blockbuster online. The verdict is still out there but letme say this, Netflix still has big subscriber growth although BBI ischeaper. Case in point for loyalty (can't directly compare this fight withour real story) but comparable.
4. Valuation: Phew.... has always been highly valued but the stock price ishalved in 4 months. Why? cause although it beat earnings once and missed bya penny once the growth engine finally stop beating by ridiculous numbers.Yes saturation and slow growth in the US markets. Future P/E 31.
5. Too much negativity on CNBC on the stock... one of my favorite buysignals. Maximum negativity helps a company when the buy guys accumulate.Average investor looks at eBay for 5 days when it first hits this low andsays I want to buy it. Oh but wait there are all these bearish articles oneBay right now and so may be I should wait. All market makers have to do iskeep it low for those 5 days. Then people get used to the new price of eBayand so its no longer a great buy. This is the perfect time for MM's to accumulate at a lower price for now what will seem like as an extendedperiod of time.
If you believe in the India, China growth story buy regardless. If you wantto be technical .... decent buy anyway. If you want to be very careful,accumulate little now and a little in the 25 to 30's. If eBay has anothermiss this year we might visit the twenties (considering the Nasdaq is atthese levels). If you believe in the bigger growth story, then this is theyear to buy and then the next round of growth Paypal, India, China and theother countries they have presence.
Have a great day and week ;-)
Re: [stock_sharks] Economic data
Date: Fri Apr 22, 2005 6:59 pm
I haven't gone through the earnings report in detail but a few points tonote were
1. lower margins
2. revenue outlook a little lower than expected for the year (just a little)
3. Subscriptions growth is exciting for now but outlook could have beenbetter.
The reason I had recommended this stock was to know if it was losing marketshare to BBI and that isn't happening. 2.6% US penetration and some 8 or 9 %Bay area penetration just tells you that it has immense potential.
The earnings weren't stellar so I'll tell you what I told my buddy at work.Take profits if you bought in lower 10's and you might get a chance to dipin, if not then wait it out but it could take sometime considering themarkets are really directionless right now.
Forget the bullshit that Herb Greensberg gives out on yahoo for eitherNetflix or Overstock. The last time the analyst did that for Amazon whenthey weren't making money and were more focused on revenues was 2002 when itwas declared a failied business model. Amazon has done pretty well sincethen and is a sustainable business.
I haven't gone through the earnings report in detail but a few points tonote were
1. lower margins
2. revenue outlook a little lower than expected for the year (just a little)
3. Subscriptions growth is exciting for now but outlook could have beenbetter.
The reason I had recommended this stock was to know if it was losing marketshare to BBI and that isn't happening. 2.6% US penetration and some 8 or 9 %Bay area penetration just tells you that it has immense potential.
The earnings weren't stellar so I'll tell you what I told my buddy at work.Take profits if you bought in lower 10's and you might get a chance to dipin, if not then wait it out but it could take sometime considering themarkets are really directionless right now.
Forget the bullshit that Herb Greensberg gives out on yahoo for eitherNetflix or Overstock. The last time the analyst did that for Amazon whenthey weren't making money and were more focused on revenues was 2002 when itwas declared a failied business model. Amazon has done pretty well sincethen and is a sustainable business.
Economic data
Date: Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:55 pm
The month of March and April has seen a flurry of economic news which havebeen weak. July - August 2004 was a similar soft patch, the markets fell andthen fully recovered. July-August though was accompanied by poor earningsand the earnings thus far have been good. Consumer and companies could gettired of spending too much and tend to take a break from the spending. Ifthe current slowdown is anything like the one mentioned above then we mightrecover soon. If not then we will be in new support levels.
Technically the market has broken important levels to the downside so surelythat is bad news.
A good place to be is Big caps and I can see several big caps that are wellpriced. QCOM, CMCSA, WMT wallmart. All these stocks have gone down recentlyand seem like good buys.
The month of March and April has seen a flurry of economic news which havebeen weak. July - August 2004 was a similar soft patch, the markets fell andthen fully recovered. July-August though was accompanied by poor earningsand the earnings thus far have been good. Consumer and companies could gettired of spending too much and tend to take a break from the spending. Ifthe current slowdown is anything like the one mentioned above then we mightrecover soon. If not then we will be in new support levels.
Technically the market has broken important levels to the downside so surelythat is bad news.
A good place to be is Big caps and I can see several big caps that are wellpriced. QCOM, CMCSA, WMT wallmart. All these stocks have gone down recentlyand seem like good buys.
Friday, September 09, 2005
Overstock.com
Date: Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:43 pm
First one that comes to mind is overstock.com. Its down to 34 from 43 sinceI last recommended it. Anyway, I do feel that there might be severalaccumulation opportunities in this company but for long term investors its agood buy. I also feel that it will rise a lot during Nov - Dec if nothingelse a trend that seems to have established over the last couple of yearsfor etailers. This stock will be accumulated over the next few weeks.
Business: Sells anything that is overstocked by retailers. Simple stuff sometimes like the new Harry Potter book is being sold 2 bucks cheaper onOverstock.
1. Revenue has gone up from 82 Mil to 166 Mil in a year's time.
2. Loss of 4.2 mil... analysts have made a big deal of this but believe me,when your revenue is that high you cannot worry about a loss of 4.2 mil. The100% growth is really the important story and the loss can very easily becontrolled when revenues are this high.
3. It's got the most honest and straight up CEO. The CEO and his fatherbought between 48 - 55 bucks.4. Stock has a large short ratio and low float which means it can be drivenup very easily (short covering).
Here is what I feel confident about: Buy now and you will definitely havesome good profits by Dec end if not before that.
Good luck!Ahu
First one that comes to mind is overstock.com. Its down to 34 from 43 sinceI last recommended it. Anyway, I do feel that there might be severalaccumulation opportunities in this company but for long term investors its agood buy. I also feel that it will rise a lot during Nov - Dec if nothingelse a trend that seems to have established over the last couple of yearsfor etailers. This stock will be accumulated over the next few weeks.
Business: Sells anything that is overstocked by retailers. Simple stuff sometimes like the new Harry Potter book is being sold 2 bucks cheaper onOverstock.
1. Revenue has gone up from 82 Mil to 166 Mil in a year's time.
2. Loss of 4.2 mil... analysts have made a big deal of this but believe me,when your revenue is that high you cannot worry about a loss of 4.2 mil. The100% growth is really the important story and the loss can very easily becontrolled when revenues are this high.
3. It's got the most honest and straight up CEO. The CEO and his fatherbought between 48 - 55 bucks.4. Stock has a large short ratio and low float which means it can be drivenup very easily (short covering).
Here is what I feel confident about: Buy now and you will definitely havesome good profits by Dec end if not before that.
Good luck!Ahu
Still holding DOC?
FYI: DOC is down now. People like me who held through got screwed. Luckily friends cashed out.
Date: Wed Apr 6, 2005 8:46 am (YahooGroup)
DOC has been up nearly 42% over the last 7 to 8 trading days.
I recommend putting some stop limits on the stock. I have noticed inthe past that this stock seems to climb before the good news isannounced. A lot of small cap stocks follow the buy on rumor sell onnews principle. Which basically means the some one knows of the newsbefore us small fish and therefore raises the price.
Today's deal was well expected. The important thing is do you believeits a 200 Mil dollar market or not based on which you should buy.
Depending on where you put the stop, there is high likelyhood of itbeing taken out for technical reasons. That having said, this couldvery well be your next hotshot RFID company. I have no reason tobelieve it cannot be. Great contacts with the government and fairlybroad product range.
Date: Wed Apr 6, 2005 8:46 am (YahooGroup)
DOC has been up nearly 42% over the last 7 to 8 trading days.
I recommend putting some stop limits on the stock. I have noticed inthe past that this stock seems to climb before the good news isannounced. A lot of small cap stocks follow the buy on rumor sell onnews principle. Which basically means the some one knows of the newsbefore us small fish and therefore raises the price.
Today's deal was well expected. The important thing is do you believeits a 200 Mil dollar market or not based on which you should buy.
Depending on where you put the stop, there is high likelyhood of itbeing taken out for technical reasons. That having said, this couldvery well be your next hotshot RFID company. I have no reason tobelieve it cannot be. Great contacts with the government and fairlybroad product range.
Bought and held DOC?
Date: Thu Mar 31, 2005 8:49 am (YahooGroup)
Those who are holding DOC at this point do not sell.
Couple of days back they announced a 1.5 Million stock buy back over 3months but today two more analysts are covering it and there was only one ofthem covering it before. This will increase the stocks visibilitydramatically (not a big deal for a big stock but a very big deal for DOC asonly one analyst was covering it).If you don't currently hold the stock you might want to see if ittechnically holds the current price before buying in.
Those who are holding DOC at this point do not sell.
Couple of days back they announced a 1.5 Million stock buy back over 3months but today two more analysts are covering it and there was only one ofthem covering it before. This will increase the stocks visibilitydramatically (not a big deal for a big stock but a very big deal for DOC asonly one analyst was covering it).If you don't currently hold the stock you might want to see if ittechnically holds the current price before buying in.
Buy NFLX
FYI: Price of NFLX on March 29, 2005 was 10.10. Today Sept 9, 2005 - 24.97
Date: Tue Mar 29, 2005 11:41 am (YahooGroup)
Netflix is a stock and company I have followed for a long time.
This company will now have approx 600 - 700 mil in revenue. Market capof 535 MIl and cash of 175 Mil.
The only reason I wasn't holding this stock was because I wanted to seeif the 2 dollar difference that they have with BBI online rentalswillslow them down or not. It did once in the past where growth sloweddown a little. Not any more.
Subscription 2.6 Mil at year end 2004 and 3 Mil now.
Bottomline... they have had a run from 9 to 10.1 essentially over thelast 2 days but its a long term buy. The above piece of information isa big big plus.
Date: Tue Mar 29, 2005 11:41 am (YahooGroup)
Netflix is a stock and company I have followed for a long time.
This company will now have approx 600 - 700 mil in revenue. Market capof 535 MIl and cash of 175 Mil.
The only reason I wasn't holding this stock was because I wanted to seeif the 2 dollar difference that they have with BBI online rentalswillslow them down or not. It did once in the past where growth sloweddown a little. Not any more.
Subscription 2.6 Mil at year end 2004 and 3 Mil now.
Bottomline... they have had a run from 9 to 10.1 essentially over thelast 2 days but its a long term buy. The above piece of information isa big big plus.
Must read: Naked Shorting
Date: Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:46 pm
Must read:
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05032407.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=yhttp://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05020106.htm
Not to demoralize you as an investor but read the articles carefully tounderstand what you are up against.
Must read:
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05032407.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=yhttp://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05020106.htm
Not to demoralize you as an investor but read the articles carefully tounderstand what you are up against.
Important juncture: Technical Levels
Date: Fri Mar 4, 2005 12:44 pm (YahooGroup)
Just wanted to bring to your attention that the DOW is at multi-yearhighs (since June 2001) right now. If it breaks 11000 its animportant psychological level.
To summarize:
1. Fed rates are going higher and so inflation is on a hold.
2. Market still has good liquidity and will continue to have thatuntil rates are 3.5 I think.
3. Companies have a high level of cash as compared to previous years.
4. Really think the job market will improve now and that willprobably be a huge boost.
5. Oil is high and might easily come down or stabilize. Markets arenot worried about oil right now which is good (although high oilprices cuts into discretionary spending and as bad for the economy).
6. This I think is the most underrated point: 3 years of levels below2150 for Nasdaq and 11000 for Dow. People want to see profits andwill not sell as much. We could be at a point where market wants togo higher than the 2001 levels slightly and it will be a confirmationthat we have moved beyond the .com bust and markets are correctlyvalued.
Bottomline I think there is a chance the DOW will break 11000 and themarkets will do fairly well until mid-April. Of course this isbetting against the trend. Chances of such breakouts is very low andits easier for indexes to just follow the bollinger bands (high andlow levels) of a certain range.
Nasdaq is not that strong right now. I think the only time its getsstrong seasonally (when there is no real growth) is during Oct - Dec.I think it will ride along with the DOW if the DOW does well in Marchand Mid-April.
Do you put money into the markets now: Don't know considering its atmultiple year highs but yet again, you could miss the breakout :)
Disclaimer: I am no economist for sure.
Just wanted to bring to your attention that the DOW is at multi-yearhighs (since June 2001) right now. If it breaks 11000 its animportant psychological level.
To summarize:
1. Fed rates are going higher and so inflation is on a hold.
2. Market still has good liquidity and will continue to have thatuntil rates are 3.5 I think.
3. Companies have a high level of cash as compared to previous years.
4. Really think the job market will improve now and that willprobably be a huge boost.
5. Oil is high and might easily come down or stabilize. Markets arenot worried about oil right now which is good (although high oilprices cuts into discretionary spending and as bad for the economy).
6. This I think is the most underrated point: 3 years of levels below2150 for Nasdaq and 11000 for Dow. People want to see profits andwill not sell as much. We could be at a point where market wants togo higher than the 2001 levels slightly and it will be a confirmationthat we have moved beyond the .com bust and markets are correctlyvalued.
Bottomline I think there is a chance the DOW will break 11000 and themarkets will do fairly well until mid-April. Of course this isbetting against the trend. Chances of such breakouts is very low andits easier for indexes to just follow the bollinger bands (high andlow levels) of a certain range.
Nasdaq is not that strong right now. I think the only time its getsstrong seasonally (when there is no real growth) is during Oct - Dec.I think it will ride along with the DOW if the DOW does well in Marchand Mid-April.
Do you put money into the markets now: Don't know considering its atmultiple year highs but yet again, you could miss the breakout :)
Disclaimer: I am no economist for sure.
Re: new stocks to look : Progress
Date: Tue Mar 1, 2005 12:11 pm
DOC, Digital Angel Corp, that we brought up a few days back buysanother company in Europe. Read the news and see how much sense itmakes. This has been a good buy for me a few days back but you mightwant to look for a good entry point. Sorry arjun, we both missed ourlimit order for today.
Also look at NVEC (MRAM) probably the nanotechnology company closestto have very usable technology (spintronics). Its at 3 month lows. Iam wetting my toes on this.
FSL (see previous email, very stable for a tech company, excellenttechnicals) was a good buy but I've sold today for better entrypoints. Did the same with CBH excellent banking stock (very stable).Look for an entry point at 59 - 60 ish.
Also, think OVTI if it drifts down slowly, dropped 3 bucks today. Has5 bucks in cash and will likely drift (though honestly its a valuestock right now too: generates a lot of cash each quarter no matterwhat and has inventories this time). This company has always beenvery conservative with guidance. Yesterday's con call mentioned theyhave a lot of inventory now. I think that's good, cause company isgood at forecasting and have learnt their lesson during a 2001 / 2002debacle.
For a very stable company with excellent growth prospects CMCSA(comcast). Basically buy into cable for long term growth. When WarrenBuffet doubles his stake in a company that has a high P/E, its wortha look. Also, George SOros has bought big into DISH. AlsoCablevision. Bottomline: Attractive sector, so a good strategy might be to buy little of all the stocks.
DOC, Digital Angel Corp, that we brought up a few days back buysanother company in Europe. Read the news and see how much sense itmakes. This has been a good buy for me a few days back but you mightwant to look for a good entry point. Sorry arjun, we both missed ourlimit order for today.
Also look at NVEC (MRAM) probably the nanotechnology company closestto have very usable technology (spintronics). Its at 3 month lows. Iam wetting my toes on this.
FSL (see previous email, very stable for a tech company, excellenttechnicals) was a good buy but I've sold today for better entrypoints. Did the same with CBH excellent banking stock (very stable).Look for an entry point at 59 - 60 ish.
Also, think OVTI if it drifts down slowly, dropped 3 bucks today. Has5 bucks in cash and will likely drift (though honestly its a valuestock right now too: generates a lot of cash each quarter no matterwhat and has inventories this time). This company has always beenvery conservative with guidance. Yesterday's con call mentioned theyhave a lot of inventory now. I think that's good, cause company isgood at forecasting and have learnt their lesson during a 2001 / 2002debacle.
For a very stable company with excellent growth prospects CMCSA(comcast). Basically buy into cable for long term growth. When WarrenBuffet doubles his stake in a company that has a high P/E, its wortha look. Also, George SOros has bought big into DISH. AlsoCablevision. Bottomline: Attractive sector, so a good strategy might be to buy little of all the stocks.
new stocks to look for
Wed Feb 23, 2005 3:04 pm (YahooGroup)
I am sure everyone is looking for stocks that will ride the nextwave. Stocks that could multiply a few times. 2 sectors that I think are going to be hot this year. Thesetechnologies will reap benefits sooner that the zillion others thatare out there.
1. RFID: I think these group will become quite big this year. Look atDOC. Its currently sliding but wait for it to stabilize a little.CKCM: not a pure play rfid stock but could make it big.
2. MRAM: This nanotechnology sector will have usable products veryvery soon. NVEC, FSL (excellent technical strength and institutionalownership).
INMD - value stock that could turn into a growth stock easily (lookat the earnings and how easily they could become extremelyprofitable, very low outstanding shares). IntegraMed America offersproducts and services to patients and providers in the fertilityindustry. Think of the number of people in today's world having kidsat a much later age and how they could use help. These guys are thebiggest providers.
Cheers,
Ahu
I am sure everyone is looking for stocks that will ride the nextwave. Stocks that could multiply a few times. 2 sectors that I think are going to be hot this year. Thesetechnologies will reap benefits sooner that the zillion others thatare out there.
1. RFID: I think these group will become quite big this year. Look atDOC. Its currently sliding but wait for it to stabilize a little.CKCM: not a pure play rfid stock but could make it big.
2. MRAM: This nanotechnology sector will have usable products veryvery soon. NVEC, FSL (excellent technical strength and institutionalownership).
INMD - value stock that could turn into a growth stock easily (lookat the earnings and how easily they could become extremelyprofitable, very low outstanding shares). IntegraMed America offersproducts and services to patients and providers in the fertilityindustry. Think of the number of people in today's world having kidsat a much later age and how they could use help. These guys are thebiggest providers.
Cheers,
Ahu
Out of Evol
March 19, 2004
Out of EVOL for a small profit.Might have a pull back from oversold levels but its a speculation stock fornow. Good fun though cause on 10 cents movements you can make money as its a$7.7 stock. Good luck!OVTI is screwing us with no news :) I think they are trying to get some shorts in so I am very curious to seethe short ratio for March 15. when it comes out. This stock has a lot ofsupport at 24 -25 but that would pretty much mean most of us are slightlybelow buying price. Overall I think March quarter earnings will be good but if there is a decentbounce in April then may be we should lighten our positions.
Out of EVOL for a small profit.Might have a pull back from oversold levels but its a speculation stock fornow. Good fun though cause on 10 cents movements you can make money as its a$7.7 stock. Good luck!OVTI is screwing us with no news :) I think they are trying to get some shorts in so I am very curious to seethe short ratio for March 15. when it comes out. This stock has a lot ofsupport at 24 -25 but that would pretty much mean most of us are slightlybelow buying price. Overall I think March quarter earnings will be good but if there is a decentbounce in April then may be we should lighten our positions.
Unusual insider selling in OVTI
March 8, 2004
As attractive as OVTI appears, there is way too much insider selling weekafter week. Check out insider transactions. No news either.If I get a chance, I'll probably be out in the late 29's.
As attractive as OVTI appears, there is way too much insider selling weekafter week. Check out insider transactions. No news either.If I get a chance, I'll probably be out in the late 29's.
mama ain't HOT and you can't short ;-)
March 4, 2004:
mama ain't HOT and you can't short ;-)
For a second I was ecstatic to think I got a short at a very good price onlyto realize the Ameritrade platform doesn't tell you immediately that therearen't shares available to short (unlike datek, scottrade) but keeps theorder pending and then cancels it on its own free will.
Called all my brokers but no one has shares available to short. Seems likethere are just too many people who believe its a POS. That might just be theundoing of all the smart guys ;-)Might just see another short covering but rest assured it will get shortedagain. Since our last email when it was at 14.... its fluctuating between11.7 to 12
ASKJ was a good short this morning and might be at the end of the day if itsaround 27.2 to 27.4, if there is no serious run up until then. It mightfollow the same path as OVTI ...... too many people want in and so won't letthe stock price shoot up. Let it fill the gap between 22 and 27 first.
Earnings improvement is barely any.... 35 to 37 mil. Acquisition is the reason they went up. Might be a good stock in the long run.
Good luck!!
Ahu
mama ain't HOT and you can't short ;-)
For a second I was ecstatic to think I got a short at a very good price onlyto realize the Ameritrade platform doesn't tell you immediately that therearen't shares available to short (unlike datek, scottrade) but keeps theorder pending and then cancels it on its own free will.
Called all my brokers but no one has shares available to short. Seems likethere are just too many people who believe its a POS. That might just be theundoing of all the smart guys ;-)Might just see another short covering but rest assured it will get shortedagain. Since our last email when it was at 14.... its fluctuating between11.7 to 12
ASKJ was a good short this morning and might be at the end of the day if itsaround 27.2 to 27.4, if there is no serious run up until then. It mightfollow the same path as OVTI ...... too many people want in and so won't letthe stock price shoot up. Let it fill the gap between 22 and 27 first.
Earnings improvement is barely any.... 35 to 37 mil. Acquisition is the reason they went up. Might be a good stock in the long run.
Good luck!!
Ahu
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