Couldn't max out of EBAY. Got into FUEL. My problem is that my conviction with FUEL doesn't allow me to trade it which makes it a frustrating proposition.
Got out of FUEL as the ticker looked really bad. I am out till 180 days after IPO (March 25th). Then on any crazy down swing this might become a good buy but frankly I am surprised the market is not seeing the potential on this one.
Bought PLUG and it was probably the most profitable 2 and half hours I've ever had trading. This stuff may have great long term potential but is a complete crazy people stock right now. That said, I went in for all the right trading reasons yesterday and got really lucky.
Okay Also went big in on RUSL (3X Bull Russia) today. It's at 3 year lows and I think this is a real opportunity. Russia is the cheapest emerging market. Ukraine is blown out of proportion and the 3X can easily double and give more if valuations catch up. Emerging markets are slowly moving back up.
Lost some money on IBM calls that I sold in order to get into RUSL. I manage poor timing every once in a while. Just perfectly poor timing.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Updates: TCS, EBAY and FUEL
TCS: The container store. This had an analyst creating a crazy report basically worshipping the company's culture, the executives and how this is a once a lifetime opportunity. I went through their financials and they've been single digit grower of revenue and still not profitable or barely so. Shorted it in the 45 / 46's. Played the other side of the trade to make it safe (it was a mistake). Made the right call, made money but didn't maximize profits. These are all option trades of course.
EBAY: Shitty earnings. I can trade this stock now that I am not with the company any more. Same story as above. Shorted at the right time but the Icahn trade put a limit on how low this can go. Could have executed the trade better but it was still highly profitable.
Finally, Rocket FUEL: Okay this one has given me a lot of grief. After the secondary the stock crashed from 60's to 48 in a rising market. I just don't get this one. All 7 analysts covering it, rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. It has smashed revenue targets. A ton of stock has come on the market after the secondary and some guys shorting the extra float that they couldn't short before seems to be the only logical explanation. Other than that, this company has just taken a huge beating. Insiders sold 2 million shares and they diluted another 3 million at 61, which has freaked some people out. I think this company will do great in the long run (double). Just got my brother to buy this one too. They are the closest to a 'winner' in the programmatic space and I am optimistic. Of course, falling in love with one stock in the past has hurt me and I feel a bit like history is repeating. There is value in the age old adage, don't bet against the ticker. I don't have a lot of patience left on this one unfortunately. Average price 59 and on margin so losses have added up. This week is critical, what with earnings and all.
EBAY: Shitty earnings. I can trade this stock now that I am not with the company any more. Same story as above. Shorted at the right time but the Icahn trade put a limit on how low this can go. Could have executed the trade better but it was still highly profitable.
Finally, Rocket FUEL: Okay this one has given me a lot of grief. After the secondary the stock crashed from 60's to 48 in a rising market. I just don't get this one. All 7 analysts covering it, rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. It has smashed revenue targets. A ton of stock has come on the market after the secondary and some guys shorting the extra float that they couldn't short before seems to be the only logical explanation. Other than that, this company has just taken a huge beating. Insiders sold 2 million shares and they diluted another 3 million at 61, which has freaked some people out. I think this company will do great in the long run (double). Just got my brother to buy this one too. They are the closest to a 'winner' in the programmatic space and I am optimistic. Of course, falling in love with one stock in the past has hurt me and I feel a bit like history is repeating. There is value in the age old adage, don't bet against the ticker. I don't have a lot of patience left on this one unfortunately. Average price 59 and on margin so losses have added up. This week is critical, what with earnings and all.
Friday, January 17, 2014
AOL and FUEL thriving
AOL is up 52% since I recommended in November.
FUEL is up 61% since I recommended it. FUEL can double from here.
FUEL is up 61% since I recommended it. FUEL can double from here.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Some risky bets and some good trades
Okay writing after a month.
Lots a bunch on money on the TWTR short initially but then took a risky bet by buying near term puts when it was around 70 and sold the same day for a big gain. After that I've just been selling calls as they are really expensive and then if it moves in the right direction, I sell puts to continue selling premium. It backfired slightly one time when TWTR went all the way to 56 but has been a good strategy for the most part. TWTR in the 60's doesn't make sense.
I'll wait for earnings and if they climb after earnings, I plan to again sell calls at some point. A small amount of shares come to the market in Feb and a much larger amount in May. If this stock is above 50, I am surely shorting it in some form before May. Mostly sell June calls.
The container store (TCS). Another great short candidate. I did some digging, looked at the valuations and then looked at the growth. Bottom line, the company is just not growing like Michael Kors. 6% growth doesn't deserve such a high multiple, especially considering they aren't even profitable. New IPO's are just getting bid up without any good justification. Shorted TCS @46 using puts and closing tomorrow.
JCP, now this is a risky one, but today was a good day to buy based on how the stock ended the day. My average price is 7.01 but I am more exposed than I'd like. I think this can see a quick bounce to the 8's. but can go way higher if earning show they are losing less money. Today's day started with the stock going almost 9% down because they shut stores. 'Huh', that's a reason for it to go up not down. They are shutting 33 out of a 1000+ stores because they want to get rid of the ones with low profitability. That's a good sign. Profitability is all that matters at JCP. Their revenue numbers are 'retail big' anyway. Of course there is a really good chance that they had a bad December and are having an even worse January. This is the risk. They should show that they are working really hard to get to profitability, else this stock is in trouble.
Lots a bunch on money on the TWTR short initially but then took a risky bet by buying near term puts when it was around 70 and sold the same day for a big gain. After that I've just been selling calls as they are really expensive and then if it moves in the right direction, I sell puts to continue selling premium. It backfired slightly one time when TWTR went all the way to 56 but has been a good strategy for the most part. TWTR in the 60's doesn't make sense.
I'll wait for earnings and if they climb after earnings, I plan to again sell calls at some point. A small amount of shares come to the market in Feb and a much larger amount in May. If this stock is above 50, I am surely shorting it in some form before May. Mostly sell June calls.
The container store (TCS). Another great short candidate. I did some digging, looked at the valuations and then looked at the growth. Bottom line, the company is just not growing like Michael Kors. 6% growth doesn't deserve such a high multiple, especially considering they aren't even profitable. New IPO's are just getting bid up without any good justification. Shorted TCS @46 using puts and closing tomorrow.
JCP, now this is a risky one, but today was a good day to buy based on how the stock ended the day. My average price is 7.01 but I am more exposed than I'd like. I think this can see a quick bounce to the 8's. but can go way higher if earning show they are losing less money. Today's day started with the stock going almost 9% down because they shut stores. 'Huh', that's a reason for it to go up not down. They are shutting 33 out of a 1000+ stores because they want to get rid of the ones with low profitability. That's a good sign. Profitability is all that matters at JCP. Their revenue numbers are 'retail big' anyway. Of course there is a really good chance that they had a bad December and are having an even worse January. This is the risk. They should show that they are working really hard to get to profitability, else this stock is in trouble.
Monday, December 16, 2013
TSLA and TWTR
Nice run up on TSLA. Missed this one by a few points.
TWTR is now in insane valuation category. I shorted at 56.25. 40 day quiet period ends tomorrow. We'll see if it still stays at these valuations. Underwriters are expected to upgrade the stock with big price targets tomorrow. IMHO this will be a sell the news type of event. I will increase positions if the stock goes to lower mid sixties.
TWTR is now in insane valuation category. I shorted at 56.25. 40 day quiet period ends tomorrow. We'll see if it still stays at these valuations. Underwriters are expected to upgrade the stock with big price targets tomorrow. IMHO this will be a sell the news type of event. I will increase positions if the stock goes to lower mid sixties.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Position update
Position updates.
- TSLA is playing out as I expected.
- VJET was a great short except I tried multiple times and never got into it.
- FUEL gave me a lot of heartache after pulling back almost all the way. Latest short ratio has just been released. FUEL short shares have more than doubled from 1.27 million to 2.67 million which is almost 23.5% of the float. I am still bullish on this one and still think it is a 2.5X from these levels.
- Covered the TWTR and LNKD short. Calls worked well for me. These companies stay short plays and you need to go in an out of your positions.
- Sold JCP. It did great for me.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Tesla Fire - part 2
Per my comments in the past on how to approach the TSLA stock based on the fire news, the inquiry is open now and the stock may pull back further. The hard thing about this is, that the news seems to be leaking. Yesterday TSLA was down 14 bucks on no news and today the news is that there will be an official inquiry. At this point I would buy a small position at the 200 DMA around 107. The build from there based on news. Remember, a full recall is the worst scenario but if some research can explain what the expense of a full recall would be, then there is some way to value the stock. Since it has to do with the base structure of the car that should protect the battery, it doesn't sound like an inexpensive recall.
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