Showing posts with label fundamentals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fundamentals. Show all posts

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Some risky bets and some good trades

Okay writing after a month.

Lots a bunch on money on the TWTR short initially but then took a risky bet by buying near term puts when it was around 70 and sold the same day for a big gain. After that I've just been selling calls as they are really expensive and then if it moves in the right direction, I sell puts to continue selling premium. It backfired slightly one time when TWTR went all the way to 56 but has been a good strategy for the most part. TWTR in the 60's doesn't make sense.

I'll wait for earnings and if they climb after earnings, I plan to again sell calls at some point. A small amount of shares come to the market in Feb and a much larger amount in May. If this stock is above 50, I am surely shorting it in some form before May. Mostly sell June calls.

The container store (TCS). Another great short candidate. I did some digging, looked at the valuations and then looked at the growth. Bottom line, the company is just not growing like Michael Kors. 6% growth doesn't deserve such a high multiple, especially considering they aren't even profitable. New IPO's are just getting bid up without any good justification. Shorted TCS @46 using puts and closing tomorrow.

JCP, now this is a risky one, but today was a good day to buy based on how the stock ended the day. My average price is 7.01 but I am more exposed than I'd like. I think this can see a quick bounce to the 8's. but can go way higher if earning show they are losing less money. Today's day started with the stock going almost 9% down because they shut stores. 'Huh', that's a reason for it to go up not down. They are shutting 33 out of a 1000+ stores because they want to get rid of the ones with low profitability. That's a good sign. Profitability is all that matters at JCP. Their revenue numbers are 'retail big' anyway. Of course there is a really good chance that they had a bad December and are having an even worse January. This is the risk. They should show that they are working really hard to get to profitability, else this stock is in trouble.