Sorry folks. I have to reverse my position on AMD. There is incessant selling on the stock and seems like their new products are not superstars and are getting poor reviews in comparison with Intel. This is still a good buy long term but short term has some serious problems.
Goldman added AMD to it's least favorite list.
http://chip.seekingalpha.com/article/21595
Got to back out for now.
Friday, December 01, 2006
Monday, November 27, 2006
Might be a short trap
Be careful about shorting due to today's market drop. It might very well be a head fake. The economy IS doing well and market reversal might very well take place only next year. If shorts load up today, they really might get squeezed. If the market stays at the lower levels reached today for the next 3 days then we can expect a down trend.
AMD is up slightly on high volume. This one is going up IMHO.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
AMD is up slightly on high volume. This one is going up IMHO.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Nice article on market share
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-6130795.html?tag=nl
Great article covering market share.
Remember the one rule of the market. The underdog always deserves a high P/E when it has great products and has tons of marketshare to capture. Remember JNPR vs CSCO. JNPR commanded that P/E in the hey days but then Cisco came in with better products JNPRs price declined. AMD is in a sweet spot right now. Just checkout the gains in the server market.
Great article covering market share.
Remember the one rule of the market. The underdog always deserves a high P/E when it has great products and has tons of marketshare to capture. Remember JNPR vs CSCO. JNPR commanded that P/E in the hey days but then Cisco came in with better products JNPRs price declined. AMD is in a sweet spot right now. Just checkout the gains in the server market.
Time to short Oil and Gas companies?
I never wanted to invest in Oil and Gas companies. Not that I am trying to be a prude but it is a prospect I haven't thought over. I did of course always think about shorting these companies :) Besides shorting is not investing.
This is not the best time to short these companies and may be the best time was some 3 months back. Having said that there are still a few companies where valuation hasn't caught up with the drop in oil price and the drop in growth.
One such company is UPL. It's a oil and gas exploration company with revenues doubling every year from 2003 to 2005. That's where it ends. 2006 growth is expected to be about 20%. Company does oil exploration in Wyoming and China. China growth is about 10%. If you look at the stock price it has gone from $3 to $50 in the last 5 years and is well off it's highs or $70. The stock has a 52 week range of $41 and $70. The P/E is very high for comparable companies at 32.78. The P/S )Price to Sale) is ridiculously high at 12.67 (almost 4 to 8 times higher than the comparable companies). If oil stays at these levels this stock might head down for a while. I see us revisiting 40 some time in the next 2 quarters. Note: The market cap is 7.5 Billion and sales are about 500 Mil in 2005 and about 600 Mil in 2006. Their profit margins are excellent. That is the one catch. If they spend more money in oil exploration that doesn't allow them the fantastic margins they have enjoyed then that is another reason this stock might head down. UPL has the best cost ratio per barrel of oil. That in my opinion will not improve any further.
Countries like Venezuela and Iran will not follow the OPEC cut downs and will produce and sell oil for under the oil price. The cost of a barrel of oil is about $2. Developing countries would not forego the margins they get with oil by cutting down on their production.
Oil might stay at these levels for a while and Oil companies need to factor in the lack of growth.
This is not the best time to short these companies and may be the best time was some 3 months back. Having said that there are still a few companies where valuation hasn't caught up with the drop in oil price and the drop in growth.
One such company is UPL. It's a oil and gas exploration company with revenues doubling every year from 2003 to 2005. That's where it ends. 2006 growth is expected to be about 20%. Company does oil exploration in Wyoming and China. China growth is about 10%. If you look at the stock price it has gone from $3 to $50 in the last 5 years and is well off it's highs or $70. The stock has a 52 week range of $41 and $70. The P/E is very high for comparable companies at 32.78. The P/S )Price to Sale) is ridiculously high at 12.67 (almost 4 to 8 times higher than the comparable companies). If oil stays at these levels this stock might head down for a while. I see us revisiting 40 some time in the next 2 quarters. Note: The market cap is 7.5 Billion and sales are about 500 Mil in 2005 and about 600 Mil in 2006. Their profit margins are excellent. That is the one catch. If they spend more money in oil exploration that doesn't allow them the fantastic margins they have enjoyed then that is another reason this stock might head down. UPL has the best cost ratio per barrel of oil. That in my opinion will not improve any further.
Countries like Venezuela and Iran will not follow the OPEC cut downs and will produce and sell oil for under the oil price. The cost of a barrel of oil is about $2. Developing countries would not forego the margins they get with oil by cutting down on their production.
Oil might stay at these levels for a while and Oil companies need to factor in the lack of growth.
Could AMD be a good buy at these levels?
AMD has done exceptionally for the last couple of years. The stock seemed to have peaked in March of this year. Not unexpected as revenue for this year will be lower than last (due to Spansion spinoff) and Intel had the worst fourth quarter in 2005. Intel is kind of back and AMD will need to keep up this level of innovation and ramp production at the same time. Last year AMD gained at Intel's expense, got great margins and most importantly broke into Dell.
If you remember buying a laptop / desktop some 4 /5 years back, you would not consider buying an AMD. There has been a major shift in consumers where people realize that AMDs have great CPUs.
Intel now has low power consumption chips. Intel is also ahead in the race for lower nanometer production and has come up with the first quad core (2 dual cores together). Intel seems to be competing better but the biggest advantage that AMD has in my opinion is the traction they already have on Opteron and the fact that consumers are now open to buying AMDs a lot more that they were a few years back.
Vista will drive PC sales. AMD's market cap is lower than Nvidia. ATI acquisition was a smart move in many ways. They used debt since their stock had already taken a hit and that was a smart move.
I think the stock is very down (21.77) and is currently trying to fight through resisitance levels. Short term downward risk is about a dollar but upward move can easily be about 3 to 4 bucks in the next 15 days or so. AMD has set themselves low fourth quarter targets. I think they have an excellent chance of beating these numbers. I think they will be an excellent competitior for Intel over the next few years.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
If you remember buying a laptop / desktop some 4 /5 years back, you would not consider buying an AMD. There has been a major shift in consumers where people realize that AMDs have great CPUs.
Intel now has low power consumption chips. Intel is also ahead in the race for lower nanometer production and has come up with the first quad core (2 dual cores together). Intel seems to be competing better but the biggest advantage that AMD has in my opinion is the traction they already have on Opteron and the fact that consumers are now open to buying AMDs a lot more that they were a few years back.
Vista will drive PC sales. AMD's market cap is lower than Nvidia. ATI acquisition was a smart move in many ways. They used debt since their stock had already taken a hit and that was a smart move.
I think the stock is very down (21.77) and is currently trying to fight through resisitance levels. Short term downward risk is about a dollar but upward move can easily be about 3 to 4 bucks in the next 15 days or so. AMD has set themselves low fourth quarter targets. I think they have an excellent chance of beating these numbers. I think they will be an excellent competitior for Intel over the next few years.
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Nov 15th Market action recap
I think I will try to do a daily recap henceforth.
Market really seems to be over bought at this point. The market might take a breather tomorrow as some earnings have been disappointing after hours. Also, tomorrow the CPI numbers come out. Fed meeting minutes that came out today had a clear message. If the Fed smells inflation, they will raise the interest rates. Raising Interest rates will surely be a killer. Market has been going up since PPI inflation data was well under control. On the other hand if the CPI data tomorrow gives us a shock (unlikely) then the market is definitely heading down.
Stocks are moving up purely on momentum. Take a look at the RIMM's move - Research in Motion (Blackberry maker). Market cap is 23.6 Billion. Compare that with Motorola 53 Billion. So you have a company with 1/10th the sales of Motorola at just half Motorola's market cap. Expectations are high due to the BlackBerry Pearl for personal use. Pearl has some bad reviews on Amazon and does not have the QWERT keyboard. Add to that competition from the likes of Motorola that just bought GOOD Technologies (Mobile email space). This sucker is going down. RIMM is a short in my opinion.
Another potential short is CROX (crocs shoes).
Having said that both RIMM and CROX seem to have a lot of momentum. Look for a confirmed reversal if you want to play it safe. If RIMM goes higher then look to buy Puts for Jan although they are expensive.
Salesforce.com (CRM) reported after hours. One time expenses ate all their profits. The company is valued at 4.76 Billion and sales are increasing about 10% quarter over quarter. CRM is another short IMHO.
Guess what's back in play. OVTI - excellent value for money. Earnings on Nov 30th and stock has begun to move. If you decide to dip in then please sell before Nov 30th earnings. Last earnings had lower margins. The company is excellent value for money. 980 mil market cal, 380 mil in cash, 100 mil cash flow every year and 30 - 40% growth. It's a dream buyout.
Market really seems to be over bought at this point. The market might take a breather tomorrow as some earnings have been disappointing after hours. Also, tomorrow the CPI numbers come out. Fed meeting minutes that came out today had a clear message. If the Fed smells inflation, they will raise the interest rates. Raising Interest rates will surely be a killer. Market has been going up since PPI inflation data was well under control. On the other hand if the CPI data tomorrow gives us a shock (unlikely) then the market is definitely heading down.
Stocks are moving up purely on momentum. Take a look at the RIMM's move - Research in Motion (Blackberry maker). Market cap is 23.6 Billion. Compare that with Motorola 53 Billion. So you have a company with 1/10th the sales of Motorola at just half Motorola's market cap. Expectations are high due to the BlackBerry Pearl for personal use. Pearl has some bad reviews on Amazon and does not have the QWERT keyboard. Add to that competition from the likes of Motorola that just bought GOOD Technologies (Mobile email space). This sucker is going down. RIMM is a short in my opinion.
Another potential short is CROX (crocs shoes).
Having said that both RIMM and CROX seem to have a lot of momentum. Look for a confirmed reversal if you want to play it safe. If RIMM goes higher then look to buy Puts for Jan although they are expensive.
Salesforce.com (CRM) reported after hours. One time expenses ate all their profits. The company is valued at 4.76 Billion and sales are increasing about 10% quarter over quarter. CRM is another short IMHO.
Guess what's back in play. OVTI - excellent value for money. Earnings on Nov 30th and stock has begun to move. If you decide to dip in then please sell before Nov 30th earnings. Last earnings had lower margins. The company is excellent value for money. 980 mil market cal, 380 mil in cash, 100 mil cash flow every year and 30 - 40% growth. It's a dream buyout.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Buy March 07 puts for CROX
This stock is very over bought. Market cap is huge for it's revenues. Worse still, company guidance for the next quarter actually shows negative growth which is unbelievable considering the company grew almost 100% quarter over quarter.
You can't short the stock as it's not available to short. What you are seeing is a typical short covering rally. Take a long term short stance and I think this is a winner.
You can't short the stock as it's not available to short. What you are seeing is a typical short covering rally. Take a long term short stance and I think this is a winner.
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Digital Angel rescheduling 3rd quarter earnings call
Digital Angel is rescheduling the earnings conference call. Key words to note here are "Strategic Alternatives".
Digital Angel Corp. (DOC.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it is rescheduling the release of its third-quarter results to update shareholders on strategic alternatives for the company.
If you revisit their recent history they just got a patent on glucose sensing microchip on diabetes. Before that stocks was at a 52 Week low. My feeling is that they are announcing a strategic alliance or may be a buy out. They might have the patent but they can't do it alone cause they don't have the money for it. They are small in market cap and their revenues aren't bad for a company in this industry group at this point in the company's evolution.
I could be completely wrong and "Strategic Alternatives" may mean the company is figuring out how to get more funding also. They have enough cash though so I doubt that but you get the point. Could be anything but most likely it's good news.
Cheers,
Ahu
Digital Angel Corp. (DOC.A: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it is rescheduling the release of its third-quarter results to update shareholders on strategic alternatives for the company.
If you revisit their recent history they just got a patent on glucose sensing microchip on diabetes. Before that stocks was at a 52 Week low. My feeling is that they are announcing a strategic alliance or may be a buy out. They might have the patent but they can't do it alone cause they don't have the money for it. They are small in market cap and their revenues aren't bad for a company in this industry group at this point in the company's evolution.
I could be completely wrong and "Strategic Alternatives" may mean the company is figuring out how to get more funding also. They have enough cash though so I doubt that but you get the point. Could be anything but most likely it's good news.
Cheers,
Ahu
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Could this be the perfect trade?
CVS bought CMX today. CVS will give CMX 1.67 shares of CVS in an all stock transaction today.
CVS is at 28.73 and CMX is at 47.3. Simple calculation would suggest that CMX buy out would be at 28.73 * 1.67 = 47.98. We therefore see a CMX cheaper by 68 cents at current prices.
Is this normal? Yes - You usually see a 30 to 40 cent discrepancy before the buyout actually takes place and the gap gets lesser as the buyout date comes closer. There is a huge difference here though.
1. CMX is at a 52 week low although earnings have been great (Walmart competition is the biggest reason).
2. CVS is also quite low but they have had good earnings as well.
3. "Could this be the perfect trade": Forget points 2 and 3 and think about this trade. Short CVS and buy CMX. This way if CVS goes down you make money on the short and lose money on the long on CMX. If CVS moves up then you have the opposite reaction. Either way you still stand to make your 68 cents.
If you were to chose to go in any one direction, choose CMX buy. Reasons: Deal might not go thorugh as some analysts think the offer is quite low. This might require CVS make a higher offer. The important thing to note here is that as per points 1 and 2, if the deal is canceled some how both stocks will still go up over the long run considering the levels they are at from a 52 week chart and earnings perspective.
Point 3 is the safe trade. Buying only CMX is the riskier one but could give greater yields. Let me know what you guys think.
CVS is at 28.73 and CMX is at 47.3. Simple calculation would suggest that CMX buy out would be at 28.73 * 1.67 = 47.98. We therefore see a CMX cheaper by 68 cents at current prices.
Is this normal? Yes - You usually see a 30 to 40 cent discrepancy before the buyout actually takes place and the gap gets lesser as the buyout date comes closer. There is a huge difference here though.
1. CMX is at a 52 week low although earnings have been great (Walmart competition is the biggest reason).
2. CVS is also quite low but they have had good earnings as well.
3. "Could this be the perfect trade": Forget points 2 and 3 and think about this trade. Short CVS and buy CMX. This way if CVS goes down you make money on the short and lose money on the long on CMX. If CVS moves up then you have the opposite reaction. Either way you still stand to make your 68 cents.
If you were to chose to go in any one direction, choose CMX buy. Reasons: Deal might not go thorugh as some analysts think the offer is quite low. This might require CVS make a higher offer. The important thing to note here is that as per points 1 and 2, if the deal is canceled some how both stocks will still go up over the long run considering the levels they are at from a 52 week chart and earnings perspective.
Point 3 is the safe trade. Buying only CMX is the riskier one but could give greater yields. Let me know what you guys think.
CVS and CMX merger
CVS is buying CMX for 1.67 shares per CMX shares. If this deal goes through you have a company that can leverage some 400 Mil a year in cost savings. 2006 revenues will be upwards of 75 Billion USD. Big step in the Pharma industry. Check out all the news articles on it today. Both stocks were sold off yesterday. I would say the stocks are a buy and certainly CMX today since they might come back with a sweeter offer as currently there is no premium.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Digital Angel Corporation awarded patent for breakthrough Glucose-Sensing RFID chip
Digital Angel Corporation awarded patent for breakthrough Glucose-Sensing RFID chip
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061025/20061025005372.html?.v=1
This news is big. Sure it will take them a while to sell it commercially but it is definitely a huge revenue driver. This company's market cap is 113 Mil and stock is at 2.51. It has it's losses in control and it's poised for a big move when this technology gets commercialized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061025/20061025005372.html?.v=1
This news is big. Sure it will take them a while to sell it commercially but it is definitely a huge revenue driver. This company's market cap is 113 Mil and stock is at 2.51. It has it's losses in control and it's poised for a big move when this technology gets commercialized.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
List of ETFs
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Computer_Services/threadview?m=tm&bn=20360&tid=725381&mid=725381&tof=13&frt=2
Cheers,
Ahu
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
Cheers,
Ahu
http://stocksharks.blogspot.com
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Make money in the last hour on the options expiry day
Ever thought you can make money in the last hour of options expiry. Keep an eye open for the following prerequisites while making this trade.
1. It needs to be the day of options expiry and the open interest should be really high.
2. The volume on the options (options that are in the money) should be low. Approximately less than 30% of open interest.
3. The stock should have moved higher / lower in recent sessions (your trade depends on whether you bought calls or puts). Therefore a few people might have made money on the move up/down and are holding to see at session highs/lows since options make a lot of money even on timing the entry and exit points.
Most brokerage houses automatically exercise or sell options that are "in the money" by 3 PM EST. Options traders know this and so if the stock has maintained a flat / slightly bullish line, they start exercising options a little before that. e.g. If a lot of call are open, traders start exercising the calls (buy stock). This buying spurs up the stock price.
To see a recent example of this, check out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=1d and look at the move in the last 1 hour. Also, see the options page for October expiry and see the open interest for Calls with $75 Strike price.
I've seen a move like this last year in OVTI for the last day of options expiry for the month of November.
Cheers,
Ahu
http://Stocksharks.blogspot.com
1. It needs to be the day of options expiry and the open interest should be really high.
2. The volume on the options (options that are in the money) should be low. Approximately less than 30% of open interest.
3. The stock should have moved higher / lower in recent sessions (your trade depends on whether you bought calls or puts). Therefore a few people might have made money on the move up/down and are holding to see at session highs/lows since options make a lot of money even on timing the entry and exit points.
Most brokerage houses automatically exercise or sell options that are "in the money" by 3 PM EST. Options traders know this and so if the stock has maintained a flat / slightly bullish line, they start exercising options a little before that. e.g. If a lot of call are open, traders start exercising the calls (buy stock). This buying spurs up the stock price.
To see a recent example of this, check out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=1d and look at the move in the last 1 hour. Also, see the options page for October expiry and see the open interest for Calls with $75 Strike price.
I've seen a move like this last year in OVTI for the last day of options expiry for the month of November.
Cheers,
Ahu
http://Stocksharks.blogspot.com
Sunday, October 15, 2006
United Airlines (UAUA) is way undervalued
Wonder if Airline stocks are worth investing into? All airlines have gone through bankruptcy in the last few years except Southwest and American Airlines.
United Airlines IMHO is a diamond in the rough. We only have data from a couple of quarters after bankruptcy and that suggests that the airline is extremely undervalued. The balance sheet has debt but has plenty of Cash as well. Airlines, due to the nature of their business can carry debt against their huge property and infrastructure.
UAUA has a market cap of 3.23 Bil. They might hit 18 - 20 Bil in revenues in 2007 and are in a good position to increase margins just a little so they can earn more income. Taking estimated $6 a share earnings for next year UAUA is trading at a future P/E of 5.
There is another factor that might benefit margins in the short term. Gasoline prices have dropped 16% in September and if you believe in the conspiracy theory that Republicans are ensureing the pricing stays low until the elections get over, then these prices might stay for a while.
Even without this bonus the economy is really improving and Airlines might be have emerging from a very risky environment over the last few years where people can now understand the risks of airlines, accept them and yet invest in them.
All UAUA has to do is keep up their current earnings performance and we should see a 50% appreciation in the stock price in 6 months.
Cheers,
Ahu
Stock Sharks
United Airlines IMHO is a diamond in the rough. We only have data from a couple of quarters after bankruptcy and that suggests that the airline is extremely undervalued. The balance sheet has debt but has plenty of Cash as well. Airlines, due to the nature of their business can carry debt against their huge property and infrastructure.
UAUA has a market cap of 3.23 Bil. They might hit 18 - 20 Bil in revenues in 2007 and are in a good position to increase margins just a little so they can earn more income. Taking estimated $6 a share earnings for next year UAUA is trading at a future P/E of 5.
There is another factor that might benefit margins in the short term. Gasoline prices have dropped 16% in September and if you believe in the conspiracy theory that Republicans are ensureing the pricing stays low until the elections get over, then these prices might stay for a while.
Even without this bonus the economy is really improving and Airlines might be have emerging from a very risky environment over the last few years where people can now understand the risks of airlines, accept them and yet invest in them.
All UAUA has to do is keep up their current earnings performance and we should see a 50% appreciation in the stock price in 6 months.
Cheers,
Ahu
Stock Sharks
Friday, October 13, 2006
YHOO downgrade timing questionable
Yahoo was downgraded this morning. The downgrade came in after Yahoo had already hit rock bottom over the past few days. This truly was a shameless ploy. Yahoo is being accumulated in my humble opinion. The day started with YHOO already opening low. You can drive a stock lower on low volume by pre-market trading. Stop losses might have triggerd for the brief dip and there on there is a consistent strong buying all the way into the close.
We keep talking about how individual investors are disadvantaged in the stock market. Situations like these are examples of how individual investors will benefit from maniplation as long as you understand the play.
I feel YHOO will go higher from now until earnings.
We keep talking about how individual investors are disadvantaged in the stock market. Situations like these are examples of how individual investors will benefit from maniplation as long as you understand the play.
I feel YHOO will go higher from now until earnings.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Apple about to announce wireless video i-Pod?
Apple about to announce wireless video i-Pod?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/10/apple-about-to-announce-wireless-video-ipod
Cheers,
Ahu
http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/10/apple-about-to-announce-wireless-video-ipod
Cheers,
Ahu
Monday, October 09, 2006
Financial Analysis on AAPL and some growth drivers
Let's do the numbers on Apple:
Note: I have made the assumption AAPL will meet the September quarter expectations next week.
Year ending Revenues Revenue YOY% growth Earnings
Sep-03---------6.21B-------------------------------69M
Sep-04---------8.28B--------33.33%----------------276M
Sep-05--------13.94B--------40.60%---------------1335M
Sep-06--------19.08B--------36.87%---------------1897M
A company growing revenues at about 37% and earnings at an even higher pace should be trading at a much higher multiple than a future P/E of 28.16. The company has had real growth and the best is yet to come in the next 6 months.
The major revenue driver for Apple has been iPod over the years. iPod's are again selling like hot cakes and will continue to do so in the holiday season. MacBooks have a small percentage of the market share and sales have picked up only in the last quarter. Apple's advertising campaign has been very successful. The stock price doesn't fully reflect the price that ought to be considering the traction for Macs. Macs are number one sellers on almost every web list you can get your hands on.
Add to this iTV. Walmart and Target that together account for 55% of DVD sales for studios are up in arms with the studios about Apple getting new movies for cheaper. The studios realize that DVD sales growth has stagnated. Downloading is the new mode of delivery. It's cheaper for studios as manufacturing and packaging costs are not present and you don't need to go to a store to buy a movie. The goal is to download a movie / TV show on your iTV and view it anywhere. Could be your TV, your video iPod just anywhere. Bottom line the growth that the company will have with the iTv sales are not factored in yet.
Just iTV and a bigger chunk of PC / Laptop market warrants another $30 - $40 price increase.
We have not even considered the new products that are in the pipeline and if you know Steve, you know he will surely have something up their sleeve in the next couple of months.
AAPL: Strong buy
Note: I have made the assumption AAPL will meet the September quarter expectations next week.
Year ending Revenues Revenue YOY% growth Earnings
Sep-03---------6.21B-------------------------------69M
Sep-04---------8.28B--------33.33%----------------276M
Sep-05--------13.94B--------40.60%---------------1335M
Sep-06--------19.08B--------36.87%---------------1897M
A company growing revenues at about 37% and earnings at an even higher pace should be trading at a much higher multiple than a future P/E of 28.16. The company has had real growth and the best is yet to come in the next 6 months.
The major revenue driver for Apple has been iPod over the years. iPod's are again selling like hot cakes and will continue to do so in the holiday season. MacBooks have a small percentage of the market share and sales have picked up only in the last quarter. Apple's advertising campaign has been very successful. The stock price doesn't fully reflect the price that ought to be considering the traction for Macs. Macs are number one sellers on almost every web list you can get your hands on.
Add to this iTV. Walmart and Target that together account for 55% of DVD sales for studios are up in arms with the studios about Apple getting new movies for cheaper. The studios realize that DVD sales growth has stagnated. Downloading is the new mode of delivery. It's cheaper for studios as manufacturing and packaging costs are not present and you don't need to go to a store to buy a movie. The goal is to download a movie / TV show on your iTV and view it anywhere. Could be your TV, your video iPod just anywhere. Bottom line the growth that the company will have with the iTv sales are not factored in yet.
Just iTV and a bigger chunk of PC / Laptop market warrants another $30 - $40 price increase.
We have not even considered the new products that are in the pipeline and if you know Steve, you know he will surely have something up their sleeve in the next couple of months.
AAPL: Strong buy
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Apple products are best sellers
The top four best sellers and 10 out of the top 12 best sellers on Amazon are Apple products.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/pc/all/ref=sv_pc_1/104-8059396-1562314?%5Fencoding=UTF8
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/pc/all/ref=sv_pc_1/104-8059396-1562314?%5Fencoding=UTF8
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
AAPL is a great buy
Dear readers,
There is a lot of talk about how AAPL is overpriced, the stock has gone up too much and that Apple will barely meet expectations.
Apple is on the verge of changing the face of the entertainment business. Forget that for the time being. Apple is only trying to be a hardware company. They don't care of they don't make money on movies, music or any software. They only want to sell their hardware (iPod, iMac, iTv etc). They are coming out with great products and Steve is timing the launch such that the interest in the Apple brand never dies.
In fact, if they don't launch anything else this year, it is not because they can't but because they don't want to. They will launch that same exciting product early next year.
The current stock price has not even covered the rise warranted by the adoption of the MacBooks. Apple has a very low market share. Imagine the revenue generated if the market share goes up by only a few percentage points. iMacs can run either Windows or the Mac platform. Everybody is asking about it. It is topping Amazon's sale numbers.
AAPL market cap is 63.2 Bil. Their revenue has gone up from 8.27B to 13.93B to about 19B (September year end) if they only come in as per expectations. December quarter is expected to be a blockbuster.
I am not even considering the impact of iPhone, movies or any of theose potential revenue drivers.
Apple is going to do fantastic and the consumers will keep craving Apple products.
There is a lot of talk about how AAPL is overpriced, the stock has gone up too much and that Apple will barely meet expectations.
Apple is on the verge of changing the face of the entertainment business. Forget that for the time being. Apple is only trying to be a hardware company. They don't care of they don't make money on movies, music or any software. They only want to sell their hardware (iPod, iMac, iTv etc). They are coming out with great products and Steve is timing the launch such that the interest in the Apple brand never dies.
In fact, if they don't launch anything else this year, it is not because they can't but because they don't want to. They will launch that same exciting product early next year.
The current stock price has not even covered the rise warranted by the adoption of the MacBooks. Apple has a very low market share. Imagine the revenue generated if the market share goes up by only a few percentage points. iMacs can run either Windows or the Mac platform. Everybody is asking about it. It is topping Amazon's sale numbers.
AAPL market cap is 63.2 Bil. Their revenue has gone up from 8.27B to 13.93B to about 19B (September year end) if they only come in as per expectations. December quarter is expected to be a blockbuster.
I am not even considering the impact of iPhone, movies or any of theose potential revenue drivers.
Apple is going to do fantastic and the consumers will keep craving Apple products.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Excellent Call buying opportunity
While just going through the list of stocks that I follow, I have stumbled upon this really strange options situation.
Accenture reports tomorrow. The October and Novemeber $25 calls are trading at no premium. Stock is at 29.3 and the October and November call is trading at 4.3 to 4.4. So then the question is if the earnings are expected to be really bad and so the calls are suddenly trading cheap. The Options Interest is really low and so no that can't be the case. I mean if the earnings are bad then so be it but it's not the expectation currently going by the open interest on the calls or puts.
The biggest connundrum is how can the same strike price option for 2 consecutive months trade at the same level.
Got to buy it at this point!!!!
Accenture reports tomorrow. The October and Novemeber $25 calls are trading at no premium. Stock is at 29.3 and the October and November call is trading at 4.3 to 4.4. So then the question is if the earnings are expected to be really bad and so the calls are suddenly trading cheap. The Options Interest is really low and so no that can't be the case. I mean if the earnings are bad then so be it but it's not the expectation currently going by the open interest on the calls or puts.
The biggest connundrum is how can the same strike price option for 2 consecutive months trade at the same level.
Got to buy it at this point!!!!
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Icahn got 33% seats on Imclone board
Interesting news on IMCL. Icahn might have something in the pipeline for all you know. Note: He hasn't always made smart decisions. Remember BBI where he bought in at 8 - 9 bucks and tried to change the company.
Anyway Imclone is a good company with really bad leadership. They made some really poor investments (check out their balance sheet). Icahn hopefully will change all that.
Anyway Imclone is a good company with really bad leadership. They made some really poor investments (check out their balance sheet). Icahn hopefully will change all that.
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Stock Sharks
Stock Sharks
Macs run Vista better than a high end Sony Vaio?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Computer_Hardware/threadview?m=tm&bn=60&tid=929351&mid=929351&tof=143&frt=2
http://www.computerworld.com/action/arti...d=9003111&pageNumber=1
Amazon top sellers (from another Yahoo post)
Here are some of my observations. What is AAPL selling this quarter. I always check Amazon.com top 10 list in different categories.Lets see, as of 7/7/6, 9PM.
1. http://tinyurl.com/m27vt...
Top sellers, Top 10 list Laptops & Notebooks. #1, Macbook, #2 Macbook, #5Macbook, #8 iMac 20", #10 MacPro, #16 Macbook Pro, #18 Macbook Pro, #20 iMac, #26 Mac Mini, #34 iMac, #35 Mac Mini, #43 Mac Book Pro, So, Apple has 5 products in top 10 positions. Total 8 Products in top 25.This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday. Definately will Split the stock in October. And then you all know what happens with the January Numbers and MacWorld announcements.
2. Go to aaple.com, go to store, MacBooks are backorder 5-7 days. Translation==HIGH DEMAND
3. Software, Top Sellers. #1 Apple .Mac 4.0, #18 Apple iLife 06
4. Electornics, Top Sellers. #2 30GB iPod, #6 60 GB iPod, #9 4GB iPod Nano, #12 1GB Nano, #18 30GB iPod, #21 2GB iPod Nano. This is only Top 25. 6 items belong to Aaple. This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday.
Macs run Vista better than a high end Sony Vaio?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Technology/Computer_Hardware/threadview?m=tm&bn=60&tid=929351&mid=929351&tof=143&frt=2
http://www.computerworld.com/action/arti...d=9003111&pageNumber=1
Amazon top sellers (from another Yahoo post)
Here are some of my observations. What is AAPL selling this quarter. I always check Amazon.com top 10 list in different categories.Lets see, as of 7/7/6, 9PM.
1. http://tinyurl.com/m27vt...
Top sellers, Top 10 list Laptops & Notebooks. #1, Macbook, #2 Macbook, #5Macbook, #8 iMac 20", #10 MacPro, #16 Macbook Pro, #18 Macbook Pro, #20 iMac, #26 Mac Mini, #34 iMac, #35 Mac Mini, #43 Mac Book Pro, So, Apple has 5 products in top 10 positions. Total 8 Products in top 25.This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday. Definately will Split the stock in October. And then you all know what happens with the January Numbers and MacWorld announcements.
2. Go to aaple.com, go to store, MacBooks are backorder 5-7 days. Translation==HIGH DEMAND
3. Software, Top Sellers. #1 Apple .Mac 4.0, #18 Apple iLife 06
4. Electornics, Top Sellers. #2 30GB iPod, #6 60 GB iPod, #9 4GB iPod Nano, #12 1GB Nano, #18 30GB iPod, #21 2GB iPod Nano. This is only Top 25. 6 items belong to Aaple. This is why Aapl will go to $86 next friday.
Stock Sharks
Stock Sharks
http://maryjaneskibum.com/2006/09/07/apple-ipod-camer a-phone-coming-out-and-a-cell-phone
AAPL might use a 2 MP image sensor from Omnivision in their iPhone. Seems like very few phones today use 2MP.
http://maryjaneskibum.com/2006/09/07/apple-ipod-camer a-phone-coming-out-and-a-cell-phone
AAPL might use a 2 MP image sensor from Omnivision in their iPhone. Seems like very few phones today use 2MP.
CKCM bought out for $22.5
I think they sold out cheap but hey it's a profit for most of us buying it under 17 bucks.
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Considering investing in Solar Power companies?
Considering investing in Solar Power companies? Here's an attempt to break down the market and to figure out what to look for.
Photo Voltaic cells are used to generate solar energy. While PV cells aren't exactly following Moore's law, their prices are going down and capacity (conversion efficiency) is increasing. There is but one source of energy and so the improvement is sought in the conversion efficiency of the PV chips to make it competitive with traditional forms of energy.
Some important factors to consider are....
1. Low cost of Production. e.g STP -Suntech Power. Manufacturing based in China.
2. High conversion Efficiency. Every company is striving for this. Sunpower (SPWR) at 22% is way ahead in the competition. Others are in the 15 - 18% frame. If SPWR has excellent patents then they have an excellent advantage long term.
3. A major challenge for this group is the polysilicon capacity. Polysilicon is used to manufacture PV Cells. Therefore its important for PV manufacturers to strike deals for a consistent polysilicon supply. Due to a major increase in demand over the last 2 years the price of polysilicon has gone up nearly 30% (contract pricing). MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) produces most of its own silicon feedstock and has recently inked a 10 year deal with STP.
4. Therefore company size and financial health is very important for ensuring supplies through contracts.
5. A company's base country will play a role as well. Germany and Japan offer the best incentives today to use Solar energy. STP has an excellent advantage as they have good visibility with Chinese government officials (see their website which talks about some visits and statements).
6. Most companies in this sector have triple digit revenue gains and so stock pricing is tough to decide. STP is the most profitable. They also have the lowest institutional investment (partly because its an ADR) and that leaves immense scope for a stock price increase.
Note: MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) is well positioned to take advantage of the polysilicon shortage. They produce most of their own Silicon feedstock.
Regards,
Ahu
Photo Voltaic cells are used to generate solar energy. While PV cells aren't exactly following Moore's law, their prices are going down and capacity (conversion efficiency) is increasing. There is but one source of energy and so the improvement is sought in the conversion efficiency of the PV chips to make it competitive with traditional forms of energy.
Some important factors to consider are....
1. Low cost of Production. e.g STP -Suntech Power. Manufacturing based in China.
2. High conversion Efficiency. Every company is striving for this. Sunpower (SPWR) at 22% is way ahead in the competition. Others are in the 15 - 18% frame. If SPWR has excellent patents then they have an excellent advantage long term.
3. A major challenge for this group is the polysilicon capacity. Polysilicon is used to manufacture PV Cells. Therefore its important for PV manufacturers to strike deals for a consistent polysilicon supply. Due to a major increase in demand over the last 2 years the price of polysilicon has gone up nearly 30% (contract pricing). MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) produces most of its own silicon feedstock and has recently inked a 10 year deal with STP.
4. Therefore company size and financial health is very important for ensuring supplies through contracts.
5. A company's base country will play a role as well. Germany and Japan offer the best incentives today to use Solar energy. STP has an excellent advantage as they have good visibility with Chinese government officials (see their website which talks about some visits and statements).
6. Most companies in this sector have triple digit revenue gains and so stock pricing is tough to decide. STP is the most profitable. They also have the lowest institutional investment (partly because its an ADR) and that leaves immense scope for a stock price increase.
Note: MEMC Electronic materials (WFR) is well positioned to take advantage of the polysilicon shortage. They produce most of their own Silicon feedstock.
Regards,
Ahu
Long time!
Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:04 am
(I am posting this email a few days after I posted it on the yahoo group.)
Hope you are all doing well. I had taken a sabbatical after taking up the new job last October but the market has become enticing enough to start considering long term investing in bits and pieces.
Most Tech stocks are doing quite poorly and many of them are down dramatically from the beginning of the year (mostly well deserved). Seems like Oil and Mining stocks are doing the best all year. I do think thistrend will change in time.
I feel a lot of tech stocks currently make good long term buys. If you wouldlike to buy into a upscale restaurant chain that is growing at a steady pace, buy into RUTH. It is a Steak House and has been around since the 60's, but gone public only in the last year or two. It is below IPO price currently and I might be rusty but I don't see any factors standing out except a poor over all market. Yup, don't think Americans will stop eating steak any time soon :)
Anyway, at 18 bucks, I think it is a deal. Earnings are tomorrow and so you can choose to buy after earnings too.
I think the market can still fall a little more but right now might be a good time to buy stocks that you plan to hold for a while.
CKCM earnings are on Thursday and I do think it is a good buy long term at16.6. OVTI might see a traditional dip before earnings which will be in early Sept. Texas Instruments (mentioned strong chips sale for cell phones) and Cell phone companies have had strong earnings which bodes well for OVTI. Image capturing chips according to some analyst might be becoming acommodity but I feel OVTI has planned its diversification quite well, have good revenue growth and have a cheap P/E.
I will not be covering Oil / Mining stocks in general but the gains there have been dramatic for those who are interested.
Good luck!
Ahu
(I am posting this email a few days after I posted it on the yahoo group.)
Hope you are all doing well. I had taken a sabbatical after taking up the new job last October but the market has become enticing enough to start considering long term investing in bits and pieces.
Most Tech stocks are doing quite poorly and many of them are down dramatically from the beginning of the year (mostly well deserved). Seems like Oil and Mining stocks are doing the best all year. I do think thistrend will change in time.
I feel a lot of tech stocks currently make good long term buys. If you wouldlike to buy into a upscale restaurant chain that is growing at a steady pace, buy into RUTH. It is a Steak House and has been around since the 60's, but gone public only in the last year or two. It is below IPO price currently and I might be rusty but I don't see any factors standing out except a poor over all market. Yup, don't think Americans will stop eating steak any time soon :)
Anyway, at 18 bucks, I think it is a deal. Earnings are tomorrow and so you can choose to buy after earnings too.
I think the market can still fall a little more but right now might be a good time to buy stocks that you plan to hold for a while.
CKCM earnings are on Thursday and I do think it is a good buy long term at16.6. OVTI might see a traditional dip before earnings which will be in early Sept. Texas Instruments (mentioned strong chips sale for cell phones) and Cell phone companies have had strong earnings which bodes well for OVTI. Image capturing chips according to some analyst might be becoming acommodity but I feel OVTI has planned its diversification quite well, have good revenue growth and have a cheap P/E.
I will not be covering Oil / Mining stocks in general but the gains there have been dramatic for those who are interested.
Good luck!
Ahu
Sunday, April 02, 2006
Blockbuster BBI
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:40 pm Subject: Blockbuster (BBI): Might be way undervalued
Carl Icahn bought BBI in the 8 to 10 dollars range. Carl Icahn is a
billionaire investor who buys companies when he thinks that he can run them
operationally and likes to break down companies after buying into them or as
in this case, try to replace management that pays themselves too well after
doing a shoddy job of running the company.
Some fundamental analysis on the stock:
1. Revenues: around 6 Bil / year; Market cap: 719 Mil. This should
definitely catch anyone's attention. Of course this means that they are a
loss making company which is why this discrepancy.
2. Total liabilities = 2.56 Bil and Total Assets = 3.03 Bil (they own their
stores). The difference in this has gone down since the previous quarter but
you still have about a +$500 Mil difference. In the meantime the stock is
down by about a third in value.
3. Their online rentals have not picked up like Netflix. Round 1 goes to
Netflix. BBI took the beating of it's life to get to $3.75 from the 10 to 11
dollars range. Having said that, BBI has more distribution centers than
Netflix and if they can do a half decent job of trying to run the business,
they would be much more successful with Blockbuster Online.
What is Icahn doing to turnaround business.
1. Classify stores as profitable or loss making and close down the loss
making stores. BBI has thousands of stores in the country.
2. Use the extra time he had over the last 18 months to develop a good
Inventory management system and make BBI online successful.
Five years from now DVD's will probably be replaced. Don't be so sure though
cause studios are making a lot of money via DVDs and unless they find an
alternate source of the same revenue, they are surely creating DVDs.
One very interesting observation is that there are 81000 $5 calls open for
April. How big is the anomaly? Get this. Every call / put for all the months
has an open interest in between 500 - 2000. This means some one is betting
8.1 million shares on the fact that BBI will cross $5 by April options
expiry. The option is at 10 cents and a pretty good bet in my opinion.
The recovery might take longer than one would like. So you could still see a
March 9 earnings report that is not good enough but hey this one is quite
undervalued
Cheers,
Ahu
Carl Icahn bought BBI in the 8 to 10 dollars range. Carl Icahn is a
billionaire investor who buys companies when he thinks that he can run them
operationally and likes to break down companies after buying into them or as
in this case, try to replace management that pays themselves too well after
doing a shoddy job of running the company.
Some fundamental analysis on the stock:
1. Revenues: around 6 Bil / year; Market cap: 719 Mil. This should
definitely catch anyone's attention. Of course this means that they are a
loss making company which is why this discrepancy.
2. Total liabilities = 2.56 Bil and Total Assets = 3.03 Bil (they own their
stores). The difference in this has gone down since the previous quarter but
you still have about a +$500 Mil difference. In the meantime the stock is
down by about a third in value.
3. Their online rentals have not picked up like Netflix. Round 1 goes to
Netflix. BBI took the beating of it's life to get to $3.75 from the 10 to 11
dollars range. Having said that, BBI has more distribution centers than
Netflix and if they can do a half decent job of trying to run the business,
they would be much more successful with Blockbuster Online.
What is Icahn doing to turnaround business.
1. Classify stores as profitable or loss making and close down the loss
making stores. BBI has thousands of stores in the country.
2. Use the extra time he had over the last 18 months to develop a good
Inventory management system and make BBI online successful.
Five years from now DVD's will probably be replaced. Don't be so sure though
cause studios are making a lot of money via DVDs and unless they find an
alternate source of the same revenue, they are surely creating DVDs.
One very interesting observation is that there are 81000 $5 calls open for
April. How big is the anomaly? Get this. Every call / put for all the months
has an open interest in between 500 - 2000. This means some one is betting
8.1 million shares on the fact that BBI will cross $5 by April options
expiry. The option is at 10 cents and a pretty good bet in my opinion.
The recovery might take longer than one would like. So you could still see a
March 9 earnings report that is not good enough but hey this one is quite
undervalued
Cheers,
Ahu
PLAY
From: "harish rao" Date: Wed Feb 1, 2006 7:00 am Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] CKCM, AMD, GOOG, OVTI
Ahu,
I would check out Play(Portal Player). They are the primary provider of soc chips for Mp3 players, the market for which is growing at 40%. They are providing chips to sndk, aapl and have a design win with philips.
Also, there are is a talk that they are coming with up PMD devices and a tie up with microsoft. They have 6+$ cash for every share, no debt and a very low forward looking PE.
Thanks
Harish
Ahu,
I would check out Play(Portal Player). They are the primary provider of soc chips for Mp3 players, the market for which is growing at 40%. They are providing chips to sndk, aapl and have a design win with philips.
Also, there are is a talk that they are coming with up PMD devices and a tie up with microsoft. They have 6+$ cash for every share, no debt and a very low forward looking PE.
Thanks
Harish
AMD might be the next AAPL
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:21 am Subject: CKCM, AMD, GOOG, OVTI
AMD: might be the next AAPL or SNDK in terms of a run up. it is not seasonal
for this company. If Intel can't do anything spectacular, and these guys can
perform over the next 12 months, Intel will have a serious competitor. There
is just too much market share AMD can gain over the next few years.
CKCM: I have been telling everyone I meet that this stock is undervalued by
20 bucks atleast (when it was at 24) and I know some of you have bought into
this one. This one will easily be in the 40's at the least in my opinion.
OVTI: I know this one has gone from 12 to 25 now but you can expect strength
going into earnings. If they can sustain their Growth and their margins,
this one is going way higher.
GOOG: their earnings are very important to all the lofty evaluations in the
internet sector. They need to show 1. they have gained market share and 2.
the search market is still unbelievably hot. Anyone who bought options when
it hit 400 is taking a risk going into their earnings tonight.
I am on the search of undervalued / growth companies and so if you find
some, do let me know
Cheers,
Ahu
AMD: might be the next AAPL or SNDK in terms of a run up. it is not seasonal
for this company. If Intel can't do anything spectacular, and these guys can
perform over the next 12 months, Intel will have a serious competitor. There
is just too much market share AMD can gain over the next few years.
CKCM: I have been telling everyone I meet that this stock is undervalued by
20 bucks atleast (when it was at 24) and I know some of you have bought into
this one. This one will easily be in the 40's at the least in my opinion.
OVTI: I know this one has gone from 12 to 25 now but you can expect strength
going into earnings. If they can sustain their Growth and their margins,
this one is going way higher.
GOOG: their earnings are very important to all the lofty evaluations in the
internet sector. They need to show 1. they have gained market share and 2.
the search market is still unbelievably hot. Anyone who bought options when
it hit 400 is taking a risk going into their earnings tonight.
I am on the search of undervalued / growth companies and so if you find
some, do let me know
Cheers,
Ahu
JNPR might be oversold at 17.07
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Jan 26, 2006 8:21 am Subject: JNPR might be over sold
JNPR might be oversold at $17.07
earnings actually matched estimates. a lot of selling must be stops being
triggered as JNPR already was at around 52 week lows before the plunge.
JNPR might be oversold at $17.07
earnings actually matched estimates. a lot of selling must be stops being
triggered as JNPR already was at around 52 week lows before the plunge.
Will GOOG hit $450 before earnings
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:28 am Subject: Options strategy: Will GOOG hit $450 before earnings
Options strategy based on "How sure are you that GOOG will hit $450".
Continuing on the previous options email on GOOG........
Let's consider this trading scenario only for the next 4 to 5 days because
if we consider a longer trading scenario, other factors play in. I am
talking Feb calls in the scenario discussed below.
Say the stock is at $400 when you bought the option of 400 and 410. These
options will have a higher premium than the rest because it is so close to
the money. Now if the stock reached 420, the premium for $400 call will not
be much (because chances of stock reaching 400 becomes low). This means you
are not seeing a dollar to dollar direct increase in your options value wrt
the stock value. At this point (V imp point: you should feel strongly it
will reach 450) the $420 calls will be priced to move. Therefore, sell the
400 calls and buy the 420. That way you maximise your profit potential by
holding an option (though with a higher premium) that will reap you a
greater percentage profit than a 400 call.
An obvious retort to that logic is "if I was so sure that it is going to 450
then I'll buy the 450 call directly". The higher strike price calls are
extremely well priced and secondly you lower the risk by owning lower strike
prices. Post earnings, the premiums will be lower.
Options strategy based on "How sure are you that GOOG will hit $450".
Continuing on the previous options email on GOOG........
Let's consider this trading scenario only for the next 4 to 5 days because
if we consider a longer trading scenario, other factors play in. I am
talking Feb calls in the scenario discussed below.
Say the stock is at $400 when you bought the option of 400 and 410. These
options will have a higher premium than the rest because it is so close to
the money. Now if the stock reached 420, the premium for $400 call will not
be much (because chances of stock reaching 400 becomes low). This means you
are not seeing a dollar to dollar direct increase in your options value wrt
the stock value. At this point (V imp point: you should feel strongly it
will reach 450) the $420 calls will be priced to move. Therefore, sell the
400 calls and buy the 420. That way you maximise your profit potential by
holding an option (though with a higher premium) that will reap you a
greater percentage profit than a 400 call.
An obvious retort to that logic is "if I was so sure that it is going to 450
then I'll buy the 450 call directly". The higher strike price calls are
extremely well priced and secondly you lower the risk by owning lower strike
prices. Post earnings, the premiums will be lower.
GOOG down 30 bucks
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:27 pm Subject: GOOG down 30 bucks
Folks GOOG is down 30 bucks. I don't think it is justified based purely on
the reason that has come out. If you still believe in what the company and
stock are doing buy the Feb $400 Feb calls although they are a little
expensive.
The Jan 400, 410, 420, 430 puts are more than 2 to 2.5 times the calls for
these dates. I think this is the reason that the subpoena is only being used
as an excuse to push the stock down to make a huge profit on all these Puts.
Which gives us an opportunity to buy calls / stocks now.
Folks GOOG is down 30 bucks. I don't think it is justified based purely on
the reason that has come out. If you still believe in what the company and
stock are doing buy the Feb $400 Feb calls although they are a little
expensive.
The Jan 400, 410, 420, 430 puts are more than 2 to 2.5 times the calls for
these dates. I think this is the reason that the subpoena is only being used
as an excuse to push the stock down to make a huge profit on all these Puts.
Which gives us an opportunity to buy calls / stocks now.
Hi Ashutosh,
I think S&P ratings and Morning star are possibly some of the better reportsto look at for sure. I used to follow CECO, COCO and APOL a year back. Ithink the growth they have experienced over the last 5 years is phenomenalbut not sure if they can sustain it. There is no serious sign of a slow downthough.They seem to have strong Nov and May quarters. Their last Feb quarter hadlow revenue. They are not expensive right now but might be in a free fall asthey have broken through all support levels built over a year. Seeing CECO'sfall some time back I can tell you these companies can serious lose value.Let's see where it consolidates. Might be a good buy!
Ahu
From: Ashutosh Thakur Subject: [stock_sharks] apol>Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 22:04:35 -0800>>Hi,>S&P 500 , 2006 edition suggests Apollo as a strong buy, so does>morningstar.>I read the analyst report by mstar and it looks strong.Cash in teh bank,>less debts, plus Apollo's widely recognized University of Phoenix is the>leader in online education and the largest private university in the>country, with more than 300,000 students.>>The stock fell 9% cos the CEO left, which i feel is temporary since he was>replaced by a veteran of 19 yrs with the company.>I would say buy at 57 , S&P gave target price as 92$ whereas mstar give a>fair value estimate of $82
I think S&P ratings and Morning star are possibly some of the better reportsto look at for sure. I used to follow CECO, COCO and APOL a year back. Ithink the growth they have experienced over the last 5 years is phenomenalbut not sure if they can sustain it. There is no serious sign of a slow downthough.They seem to have strong Nov and May quarters. Their last Feb quarter hadlow revenue. They are not expensive right now but might be in a free fall asthey have broken through all support levels built over a year. Seeing CECO'sfall some time back I can tell you these companies can serious lose value.Let's see where it consolidates. Might be a good buy!
Ahu
From: Ashutosh Thakur Subject: [stock_sharks] apol>Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 22:04:35 -0800>>Hi,>S&P 500 , 2006 edition suggests Apollo as a strong buy, so does>morningstar.>I read the analyst report by mstar and it looks strong.Cash in teh bank,>less debts, plus Apollo's widely recognized University of Phoenix is the>leader in online education and the largest private university in the>country, with more than 300,000 students.>>The stock fell 9% cos the CEO left, which i feel is temporary since he was>replaced by a veteran of 19 yrs with the company.>I would say buy at 57 , S&P gave target price as 92$ whereas mstar give a>fair value estimate of $82
OVTI, CKCM, CVH, TASR
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Tue Jan 10, 2006 9:34 am Subject: OVTI, CKCM, TASR, CVH
Where is the joy I need to see on this board with OVTI on 24 :)
My suggestion would be to sell OVTi before earnings if it reached 27 - 30
(based on market index etc factors). That is a good return on where we
invested (12 to 15 bucks). It has excellent momentum and can easily hit 30
if market doesn't fall back. It should really be valued at around 40 in my
opinion. Again, if they guide higher next quarter it is a different story
all together.
TASR is the other stock that has a lot of suspense. I wrote about it last
week and it has seen some 33% up since. If you got in then this piece is for
you. Unfortunately there is no affirmation in terms of earnings but more in
terms of court cases being dismissed and just the huge potential these guys
have. TASR makes the Taser guns that cops use. For those who don't know,
TASR is the single most phenomenal growth story in a year in 2003 - 2004.
Well actually it was the single most manipulated, overpriced stock then that
just flew on short covering (1000% up). The stock is purely moving on
momentum now and a lot of day trading volume (or of course on news that is
not out yet). The options which is all I trade these days are surprisingly
priced without a premium which is a drawback on this stock. There has also
been a huge closing of the 7.5 calls for Jan yesterday, another possible
negative (need not be). The options trading volume yesterday for 7.5 Jan was
at 7500 though the open interest went down by 3000. Aha! New interest in the
stock for sure and since it is trading without a premium, people might
prefer exercising the option and holding it (another potentail reason of Jan
option interest going down). One thing I can tell you is that do not
underestimate the momentum of this stock simply because it is the one that
attracts maximum day traders. This stock showed up on several BUY trading
alerts screen based on the fact that it broke through all moving averages
resistance over the last few days. Trade this one with stop markets though.
Momentum traders will dump if if they have sure proof of it's reversal. If
you are the long term investor kind of guy then hold on to it as it really
does have potential.
CKCM: Still very underpriced in my opinion.
You must think that I seem to be only covering some 5 stocks of late. I have
dozens of stocks that I am looking at for short and long plays and these did
seem the best ones. I haven't researched other stocks in as much detail if
it fails some of my criteria but I do cover another say 150 stocks and then
the stocks that show up on my screens on a day to day basis.
CVH: Is a short to 50 bucks easily but you can wait for a good time to
short.
Where is the joy I need to see on this board with OVTI on 24 :)
My suggestion would be to sell OVTi before earnings if it reached 27 - 30
(based on market index etc factors). That is a good return on where we
invested (12 to 15 bucks). It has excellent momentum and can easily hit 30
if market doesn't fall back. It should really be valued at around 40 in my
opinion. Again, if they guide higher next quarter it is a different story
all together.
TASR is the other stock that has a lot of suspense. I wrote about it last
week and it has seen some 33% up since. If you got in then this piece is for
you. Unfortunately there is no affirmation in terms of earnings but more in
terms of court cases being dismissed and just the huge potential these guys
have. TASR makes the Taser guns that cops use. For those who don't know,
TASR is the single most phenomenal growth story in a year in 2003 - 2004.
Well actually it was the single most manipulated, overpriced stock then that
just flew on short covering (1000% up). The stock is purely moving on
momentum now and a lot of day trading volume (or of course on news that is
not out yet). The options which is all I trade these days are surprisingly
priced without a premium which is a drawback on this stock. There has also
been a huge closing of the 7.5 calls for Jan yesterday, another possible
negative (need not be). The options trading volume yesterday for 7.5 Jan was
at 7500 though the open interest went down by 3000. Aha! New interest in the
stock for sure and since it is trading without a premium, people might
prefer exercising the option and holding it (another potentail reason of Jan
option interest going down). One thing I can tell you is that do not
underestimate the momentum of this stock simply because it is the one that
attracts maximum day traders. This stock showed up on several BUY trading
alerts screen based on the fact that it broke through all moving averages
resistance over the last few days. Trade this one with stop markets though.
Momentum traders will dump if if they have sure proof of it's reversal. If
you are the long term investor kind of guy then hold on to it as it really
does have potential.
CKCM: Still very underpriced in my opinion.
You must think that I seem to be only covering some 5 stocks of late. I have
dozens of stocks that I am looking at for short and long plays and these did
seem the best ones. I haven't researched other stocks in as much detail if
it fails some of my criteria but I do cover another say 150 stocks and then
the stocks that show up on my screens on a day to day basis.
CVH: Is a short to 50 bucks easily but you can wait for a good time to
short.
Market direction - Shouldn't be ever predicting this one
Market direction - Shouldn't be ever predicting this one. I have a poor understanding of economic forecasting. I shouldn't delve into that and instead focus on my strengths in investing.
- Ahu
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Fri Jan 6, 2006 8:33 am Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction
good point Ameez there "might be a slowing of the hike" is the correct way
to put it.
Folks by the way: Ameez is a very old friend and works with Freddie Mac in
the fixed income markets.
Prateek: CRM though seeming overly priced got an upgrade this morning and
might make a SNDK like move before earnings. Their new target is a
outrageously high $50 and I won't be surprised if it gets to 45 bucks in no
time.
>From: A Nanjee >
>Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction
>Date: Thu, 5 Jan 2006 21:32:42 -0500
>
>Just a clarification: Fed minutes, which were recently released, suggested
>there might be a slow down in hike. One of the many factors for this
>announcement could be because in March Greenspan retires. They may want to
>give the new chairman, Bernanke, the freedom to choose the direction he
>wants to take. But this does not necessarily indicate a sure stop in the
>rate hikes. Having said that, the Fixed Income side of the street did
>indeed
>lower the probability of a rate hike from 75 to 50%.
>
>Finally, the inverted curve is only between the 2 and 3 year point. All
>projections are suggesting a steepning within 6 months, either Bearish or
>Bullish.
>
>Ameez
>
- Ahu
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Fri Jan 6, 2006 8:33 am Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction
good point Ameez there "might be a slowing of the hike" is the correct way
to put it.
Folks by the way: Ameez is a very old friend and works with Freddie Mac in
the fixed income markets.
Prateek: CRM though seeming overly priced got an upgrade this morning and
might make a SNDK like move before earnings. Their new target is a
outrageously high $50 and I won't be surprised if it gets to 45 bucks in no
time.
>From: A Nanjee >
>Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Market direction
>Date: Thu, 5 Jan 2006 21:32:42 -0500
>
>Just a clarification: Fed minutes, which were recently released, suggested
>there might be a slow down in hike. One of the many factors for this
>announcement could be because in March Greenspan retires. They may want to
>give the new chairman, Bernanke, the freedom to choose the direction he
>wants to take. But this does not necessarily indicate a sure stop in the
>rate hikes. Having said that, the Fixed Income side of the street did
>indeed
>lower the probability of a rate hike from 75 to 50%.
>
>Finally, the inverted curve is only between the 2 and 3 year point. All
>projections are suggesting a steepning within 6 months, either Bearish or
>Bullish.
>
>Ameez
>
OVTI and CKCM
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Thu Jan 5, 2006 1:59 pm Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Market direction
Hoping OVTI goes down again :) Trading calls is working very well with OVTI.
still long on CKCM and OVTI. CKCM feels like the best undiscovered company
right now. Feel very positive about CKCM long term and OVTI as well.
CRM has really gone high man. Might buy some puts if it goes any higher for
a short term correction.
Regards,
Ahu
Date: Thu Jan 5, 2006 1:59 pm Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Market direction
Hoping OVTI goes down again :) Trading calls is working very well with OVTI.
still long on CKCM and OVTI. CKCM feels like the best undiscovered company
right now. Feel very positive about CKCM long term and OVTI as well.
CRM has really gone high man. Might buy some puts if it goes any higher for
a short term correction.
Regards,
Ahu
OSTK
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 10:49 pm Subject: OSTK
I did recommend Overstock a few months back. Haven't researched it lately
but if you are holding on to it please do put stop limits. The company had a
bad earnings report and since we are in holiday season it might hold current
price levels but put stops at 6% in my opinion.
I did recommend Overstock a few months back. Haven't researched it lately
but if you are holding on to it please do put stop limits. The company had a
bad earnings report and since we are in holiday season it might hold current
price levels but put stops at 6% in my opinion.
Vishal's 2 cents...
From: "Vishal Kumar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 1:23 pm Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] MSFT is an excellent long term buy
My $0.02
IMO there are 3 possible catalysts for MS this year
- XBOX 360 - If MS makes large improvements in market share
- Search - This is a biggie. MS is behind the curve and needs to do
more. Expect GOOG to see slower growth as well.
The third one is the release of the new MS pipeline
- Windows Vista /Office all ship next yr. While I don't think anything
will impact the number of client licenses we sell there is a reasonable
revenue uptick associated with a new release since corporates will
upgrade .
Basically you can expect the stock to hit 29-30 (and that is a
conservative estimate if MS hits even some of its goals in this space.)
Off course I don't buy MS stock in the open market.. im inadvertently
invested in it through multiple avenues .. but im planning on holding
onto the stock this year.
Bottom line - will MS return 10% this year - my answer is a confident
yes
Will it outperform the S&P - probably
Is there any chance the stock will jump > 15% - very unlikely
My $0.02
IMO there are 3 possible catalysts for MS this year
- XBOX 360 - If MS makes large improvements in market share
- Search - This is a biggie. MS is behind the curve and needs to do
more. Expect GOOG to see slower growth as well.
The third one is the release of the new MS pipeline
- Windows Vista /Office all ship next yr. While I don't think anything
will impact the number of client licenses we sell there is a reasonable
revenue uptick associated with a new release since corporates will
upgrade .
Basically you can expect the stock to hit 29-30 (and that is a
conservative estimate if MS hits even some of its goals in this space.)
Off course I don't buy MS stock in the open market.. im inadvertently
invested in it through multiple avenues .. but im planning on holding
onto the stock this year.
Bottom line - will MS return 10% this year - my answer is a confident
yes
Will it outperform the S&P - probably
Is there any chance the stock will jump > 15% - very unlikely
MSFT as a long term buy
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:13 am Subject: MSFT is an excellent long term buy
The more I study Microsoft and its balance sheet the more I realise that
there is no other company around that is remotely as healthy. 6 years of no
growth but I strongly feel it will jump into its next growth phase soon.
XBOX has not done that well and the stock is under pressure. In my opinion
its a stong LT buy any where close to 26. If I am not mistaken their
dividend itself is 36 cents a year. It is pressured again this morning and
so take advantage of a strong drop if any.
Good stock for any portfolio. Dividend paying, 3 bil a quarter profit making
stock that your mom will be proud of when she sees it in your portfolio with
all the other aggressive stocks ;-)
The more I study Microsoft and its balance sheet the more I realise that
there is no other company around that is remotely as healthy. 6 years of no
growth but I strongly feel it will jump into its next growth phase soon.
XBOX has not done that well and the stock is under pressure. In my opinion
its a stong LT buy any where close to 26. If I am not mistaken their
dividend itself is 36 cents a year. It is pressured again this morning and
so take advantage of a strong drop if any.
Good stock for any portfolio. Dividend paying, 3 bil a quarter profit making
stock that your mom will be proud of when she sees it in your portfolio with
all the other aggressive stocks ;-)
TASRE calls
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:07 am Subject: tasre
Taser is a buy based on open interest for 7.5 call options. I should have
emailed this one a couple of days back as it has had quite a run.
Taser is a buy based on open interest for 7.5 call options. I should have
emailed this one a couple of days back as it has had quite a run.
OVTI strength and CVH
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:05 am Subject: OVTI still a good buy
Showing excellent strength this morning and recovered from the technical
damage in no time and with high volume. Micron reported yesterday and is
down after earnings.
There is a healthcare company called CVH. I haven't researched it much but
saw a couple of basics failing the main one being growth. It's doing okay
due to a fairly good market but in my opinion is a short close to 60. Buy
Feb puts on this one.
Date: Thu Dec 22, 2005 7:05 am Subject: OVTI still a good buy
Showing excellent strength this morning and recovered from the technical
damage in no time and with high volume. Micron reported yesterday and is
down after earnings.
There is a healthcare company called CVH. I haven't researched it much but
saw a couple of basics failing the main one being growth. It's doing okay
due to a fairly good market but in my opinion is a short close to 60. Buy
Feb puts on this one.
OVTI's big pain: Jefferies
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Wed Dec 7, 2005 10:26 pm Subject: OVTI's big pain: Jefferies
Pixelplus Co., a Korean fabless semiconductor co that makes CMOS sensors,
filed last Monday with the SEC for an IPO.
Jefferries are the underwriter!
So much for the perpetual Sell rating that Jefferies always had on OVTI.
Date: Wed Dec 7, 2005 10:26 pm Subject: OVTI's big pain: Jefferies
Pixelplus Co., a Korean fabless semiconductor co that makes CMOS sensors,
filed last Monday with the SEC for an IPO.
Jefferries are the underwriter!
So much for the perpetual Sell rating that Jefferies always had on OVTI.
OVTI comes through
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar" Date: Thu Dec 1, 2005 2:16 pm Subject: OVTI Earnings
Greetings from Chennai again :)
Did anyone see OVTI's earnings?
I hope you guys are still in OVTI. Last I knew a lot of you were still in.
Anyway, it just makes me wonder why no one was willing to buy this stock for
12 bucks a month back after all the trashing by Greenberg, Rocker and
Tristan Gerra. The amount of manipulation and lies on the stock was just
unbelievable. Guess the bottomline is fundamentals always win in the end.
Congratulations all!
Greetings from Chennai again :)
Did anyone see OVTI's earnings?
I hope you guys are still in OVTI. Last I knew a lot of you were still in.
Anyway, it just makes me wonder why no one was willing to buy this stock for
12 bucks a month back after all the trashing by Greenberg, Rocker and
Tristan Gerra. The amount of manipulation and lies on the stock was just
unbelievable. Guess the bottomline is fundamentals always win in the end.
Congratulations all!
LGF Post
Hey Jamshid,
I have always thought LGF is a good stock to buy under 10. These guys makephenomenal low budget blockbusters that get high critical acclaim. They madeCrash and they made Michael Moore's second movie amongst others.
Cheers,
Ahu>
From: Jamshid Kekobad
Subject: [stock_sharks] LGF>Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 07:50:32 -0800 (PST)>>Hey Ahunawar,>> What do you think of LGF ? i am thinking of buying it today....>> the usher movie is opening tomorrow and we might see a spike in the>share price on monday...same as what happened with saw II>> jamshid
I have always thought LGF is a good stock to buy under 10. These guys makephenomenal low budget blockbusters that get high critical acclaim. They madeCrash and they made Michael Moore's second movie amongst others.
Cheers,
Ahu>
From: Jamshid Kekobad
Subject: [stock_sharks] LGF>Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 07:50:32 -0800 (PST)>>Hey Ahunawar,>> What do you think of LGF ? i am thinking of buying it today....>> the usher movie is opening tomorrow and we might see a spike in the>share price on monday...same as what happened with saw II>> jamshid
Increased Open Interest
From: "Bhanu Sharma" Date: Sun Nov 13, 2005 12:23 am Subject: Re: [stock_sharks] Increased open interest
The iPod and the Xbox might compete a little for the same holiday shopping dollars, but I don't see the overlap of the target segment to be significant enough to impact iPod sales.
An MP3 music player is a far more generic holiday gift, than a video game console, since most folks won't consider gifting the Xbox 360 to their grandparents, aunts and uncles etc. and also, if you look at a typical household, there might be one Xbox for the whole family, with still an iPod for each family member.
With hordes of high school kids earning bragging rights by showing off their newest Nano's and iPod 5G's in school, commuters, fitness freaks etc. buying iPods, I clearly see the iPod as a very strong holiday contender.
For those interested in the iPod related economy, PLAY and AAPL both are going up around 15% by Jan, 06, IMHO.
I've been holding to my Apple stock, because I don't know of another "to die for" gadget in the market, this holiday season.
Still a good time to consider investing a little in these companies.(and buying yourself the latest Video iPod or Nano)
Bhanu
----- Original Message -----
To: stock_sharks@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2005 7:29 PM
Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Increased open interest
I wouldnt bank too much on IPOD sales going too high this holiday season as they will be splitting sales with the XBOX360. They are both the same price range (almost)harish rao
Ahu,
Good to hear from you. Getting to the point, I think PortalPlayer(PLAY)looks good for a quick trade, they make memory chips being used in IPODs, and they were down 24% from the time they announced their secondary offering. Now they have yanked their offering, and look good to meet their new EPS(up from 37 cents a share to 47 cents) especially after the strong holiday season that IPOD's expect to have.
Moreever they have a P/E of 13.1 which I think is pretty low for this stock. The stock did go up 14% EOD today, but I think it is definitely worth a 10% up trade in near future.
Let me know your thoughts.
Harish
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Increased open interestDate: Wed, 09 Nov 2005 10:09:45 -0800>>The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open>interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting>that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding>today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.>>Cheers,>Ahu>>http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/>
The iPod and the Xbox might compete a little for the same holiday shopping dollars, but I don't see the overlap of the target segment to be significant enough to impact iPod sales.
An MP3 music player is a far more generic holiday gift, than a video game console, since most folks won't consider gifting the Xbox 360 to their grandparents, aunts and uncles etc. and also, if you look at a typical household, there might be one Xbox for the whole family, with still an iPod for each family member.
With hordes of high school kids earning bragging rights by showing off their newest Nano's and iPod 5G's in school, commuters, fitness freaks etc. buying iPods, I clearly see the iPod as a very strong holiday contender.
For those interested in the iPod related economy, PLAY and AAPL both are going up around 15% by Jan, 06, IMHO.
I've been holding to my Apple stock, because I don't know of another "to die for" gadget in the market, this holiday season.
Still a good time to consider investing a little in these companies.(and buying yourself the latest Video iPod or Nano)
Bhanu
----- Original Message -----
To: stock_sharks@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2005 7:29 PM
Subject: RE: [stock_sharks] Increased open interest
I wouldnt bank too much on IPOD sales going too high this holiday season as they will be splitting sales with the XBOX360. They are both the same price range (almost)harish rao
Ahu,
Good to hear from you. Getting to the point, I think PortalPlayer(PLAY)looks good for a quick trade, they make memory chips being used in IPODs, and they were down 24% from the time they announced their secondary offering. Now they have yanked their offering, and look good to meet their new EPS(up from 37 cents a share to 47 cents) especially after the strong holiday season that IPOD's expect to have.
Moreever they have a P/E of 13.1 which I think is pretty low for this stock. The stock did go up 14% EOD today, but I think it is definitely worth a 10% up trade in near future.
Let me know your thoughts.
Harish
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Increased open interestDate: Wed, 09 Nov 2005 10:09:45 -0800>>The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open>interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting>that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding>today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.>>Cheers,>Ahu>>http://stocksharks.blogspot.com/>
Nov $15 calls for OVTI
From: "Ahunawar Chhapgar"
Date: Wed Nov 9, 2005 10:09 am Subject: Increased open interest
The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open
interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting
that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding
today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.
Cheers,
Ahu
Date: Wed Nov 9, 2005 10:09 am Subject: Increased open interest
The $15 calls for November are showing a large increase in the open
interest. Meaning, a lotof people are buying the calls for 15 cents betting
that it will go above $15 by Nov 19. Only 7 business days more excluding
today. Tough shot but if it comes through your investment multiplies.
Cheers,
Ahu
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