Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Why I bought FUEL?

Why did I buy FUEL? Here are the reasons.


  1. The internet advertising and branding (rapidly growing) marketplace is HUGE. So there is enough opportunity. Programmatic ad buying is the future (do you own DD on this). Others like Tremor are losing market share.
  2. Some numbers: Only 4 million shares were sold during the IPO. 11.3 Million float, 32.9 million outstanding and 31% owned by insiders. So a very small float. Run ups can be very quick on low volume.
  3. 132% growth YOY this quarter. Okay, so this is probably the most important statistic. They are growing across all segments of their business.
  4. Sell off after earnings report. The stock had a 20% sell off after earnings report that seemed to be more closely tied to the video ad tech companies such as TRMR and other video ad tech companies that have bombed in the market. The company came in with a slightly higher loss. Well, given where the market is in it's evolutionary cycle today, it is supposed to reward growth and shouldn't care if a company lost an extra 2 million. This was a great buying opportunity.
  5. Valuation: We will not look at EPS but instead price to sales ratios. The company expects 2014 revenue of 426Million and market cap is 1.56B (@47.5). That's trading at about 3.5 times next years sales. YELP trades at 12.4 times sales, although this stock has higher growth and higher revenues. One reason is that Yelp is expected to be the winner in their business area but the market for video ad tech is still up in the air. Investors don't understand this business. If you are betting your money, you are betting on FUEL winning and FUEL's ad tech being better than everyone else. If this business becomes clearer and Rocket Fuel continues to win, this stock will trade higher than the YELPs and LinkedIn's of the world.
This stock can go up 4 times or so from it's current price (target 200). This can be a 6 - 7 billion dollar market cap given the above points in the next year.

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