Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Robert Baird note on OVTI

"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15 "

I think the stock will not go much lower. Chances are very small that OVTI gets this news overnight. It has to be in the making and so if the conference calls from a few days back is to be believed, it implies OVTI mostly likely knew about this. Lenovo business is huge and they will be supplying chips to Lenovo for laptops as well. Lenovo laptop sales will beat dell shortly.

A good strategy is to buy $15 calls for Oct 15 at 5 - 10 cents and sell it at double the price or more if the stock moves up by a dollar.

No comments: