Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Robert Baird note on OVTI

"OmniVision: Believe OVTI has lost Motorola as a customer - Baird (OVTI) 13.00 : Baird's latest checks indicate that OVTI has lost all of MOT's new mobile phones. Firm believes MOT is now using Micron (MU) and, in a lesser extent, STMicroelectronics (STM) in all new camera phone launches. Excluding the sale of previously written off inventory and the integration of SOI, the firm estimates July-quarter revenues and EPS were $81 mln and $0.15, below the reported $96 mln and $0.25 and a significant miss versus the guidance. Off that revenue base, they say OVTI would need to grow revenues 36%-48% sequentially to meet its October-quarter forecast. Given firm's belief of OVTI's current dynamics, they believe this guidance could be difficult to achieve. Reits Neutral, cuts tgt to $12 from $15."

This is certainly bad news but I don't think the company didn't know of this when they gave guidance. OVTI has been quite good at meeting their near term guidance in the past. Why? Cause in their business they chip manufacturing are quite long and so they need to know requirements 3 months in advance always.

$15 options for Oct 21st are fluctuating at 5 - 10 cents. It will double or go even higher if the stock moves up a dollar.

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